2017 game-by-game predictions...

[Mogu1993]

This is how I feel the 2017 season will play out...

Week 1: Sat Sep 2 - Northwestern State
Win 38-17

Week 2: Sat Sep 9 - Mississippi State
Win 21-20

Week 3: Sat Sep 16 - at WKU
Loss 24-31

Week 4: Sat Sep 23 - at South Carolina
Loss 14-38

Week 5: Sat Sep 30 - South Alabama
Win 42-17

Week 6: Sat Oct 7 - at UAB
Win 52-14

Week 7: Bye

Week 8: Sat Oct 21 - Southern Miss
Win 31-28

Week 9: Sat Oct 28 - at Rice
Win 45-10

Week 10: Sat Nov 4 - North Texas
Win 35-24

Week 11: Sat Nov 11 - Florida Atlantic
Win 42-21

Week 12: Sat Nov 18 - at UTEP
Win 24-14

Week 13: Sat Nov 25 - UTSA
Loss 21-31

Championship at WKU
Loss 24-38

New Orleans bowl vs Arkansas State
Win 49-31

10-4 (6-2)

What do y'all think?

I'd love to reach 10 this year. Is it possible?

[dawg80]

7-0 at home, 3-2 on the road, losses at WKU and USC. 10-2 regular season.

[Blue Dawg]

I should have my personal predictions and ELO predictions up soon. Also, I'll start work on the Sagarin ratings again.

They all should be in the range of 9-10 games. I ran some quick ELO predictions the other day and got a win total of 10.6 (although ELO isn't the best predictor for college football).

[Houston Techsan]

Losing to UTSA at home would be a WTF game.

[Bearpaw]

Here's mine ( I don't know why the original poster thinks we'll lose to UTSA at home)

9/2 NWST: Tech wins 49-10 (revenge for Skip Holtz; J'Mar and new receivers become more confident)
9/9 MSST: Tech wins 35-24 (MSST lost to South Alabama early last year, I don't believe they will have improved greatly)
9/16 @WKU: Tech wins 56-42 (High Scoring game, loss of WKU's Lamb & drafted receivers too much to overcome)
9/23 @USC: Tech wins 28-13 (South Carolina's Coach is a defensive minded coach, should be able to keep their offense down)
9/30 USA: Tech wins 49-21 (USA cannot keep up with Tech, Sun Belt= 'nuff said)
10/7 @UAB: Tech wins 49-10 (UAB team ragged after lack of depth really starts to show; Holtz wins big as my wedding gift )
10/21 SoMiss: Tech wins 39-13 (Tech finally overcomes 2-year slump, plays with energy to Trump rival; SoMiss's rookie QB needs new pants )
10/28 @Rice: Tech wins 42-17 (Rice becomes more competitive, just not enough for Tech)
11/4 UNT: Tech wins 49-21 (UNT continues to improve)
11/11 FAU: Tech wins 56-28 (FAU shows improved offense under Kiffen, lack of defensive talent shows)
11/18 @UTEP: Tech wins 35-17 (Hard to play in El Paso with high winds)
11/25 UTSA: Tech wins 56-35 (Skip again tries to rub it in)

CUSA Champ: Tech wins vs. ODU 56-21 (2014 rematch & revenge)
Access Bowl: Tech beats LSU 49-35 (not that I want LSU to be so successful, but I want to be able to beat LSU at least twice in 2018 )

[Tech77]

UTSA returns lots of starters, including QB Sturm and his top 4 receivers. I don't predict we will lose to them, but I think they could be a team to keep an eye on.

[Bearpaw]

UTSA returns lots of starters, including QB Sturm and his top 4 receivers. I don't predict we will lose to them, but I think they could be a team to keep an eye on.

Undoubtedly, but I don't believe we'll lose to them at home. I may be worried next year when we visit San Antonio though

[qng001]

The UTSA game is the last regular season home game and Senior Day. We better be motivated to win.

[collinellis]

The UTSA game is the last regular season home game and Senior Day. We better be motivated to win.

Our last 2 reg. season ending games have been awful at best..

[S'PortDawg]

We lost 3 players to the NFL draft and have a brand new QB that only has 1 game under his belt. And unless y'all know something I don't, Blake Baker is still our Defensive Coordinator. I think our floor is 6-6 and our ceiling is 8-4.

[Blue Dawg]

DISCLAIMER: numbers before the season are notoriously unreliable. Do not trust these.

The WVARA predictions are calculated by a weight of the last several seasons. During the season, I usually get about 67-75% accuracy on these.

The Elo rankings take into account the total history of a team (which can be fun to look through!). I'm not sure on their predictive accuracy but I've presented them here anyway. An average Elo is 1000. Really good teams like Alabama can reach over 2000, really bad teams like Kansas can even be negative. Tech has an Elo of 1225. We had a chance to reach our highest ranking ever (approx 1350) before prolapsing against USM. A good showing this season could make this the best Elo season ever.

Expected wins (xW-L) are simply the sum of all the win percentages. This is different from the predicted wins, which are just a count of how many games have a w% > 50%. A large difference in these two measures can indicate a significant number of close games and thus season variability.

I'm expecting the Championship game vs WKU, and the HoD vs Oklahoma State.

			WVARA3			Elo
Date		Opponent	w%	PF	PA	Elo Rk	w%
Sep Sat 02		NWSt	100%				100%
Sep Sat 09		MSSt	53%	35	35	1202	67%
Sep Sat 16	@	W Kentucky	25%	37	46	1482	11%
Sep Sat 23	@	S Carolina	88%	41	23	1007	66%
Sep Sat 30		S Alabama	95%	44	23	700	97%
Oct Sat 07	@	UAB	62%	38	33	744	90%
Oct Sat 21		S Mississippi	71%	39	31	856	94%
Oct Sat 28	@	Rice	93%	48	24	648	94%
Nov Sat 04		N Texas	100%	45	18	481	99%
Nov Sat 11		FAU	100%	44	20	507	99%
Nov Sat 18	@	UTEP	92%	44	20	519	97%
Nov Sat 25		UTSA	95%	40	20	762	96%
-	@	W Kentucky	25%	37	46	1482	11%
-		Oklahoma St	59%	38	35	1442	22%
xW-L			12-2			11-3
pW-L			10.6-3.4			10.4-3.6

I expect the actual season to be reasonable similar, with the additional of a Holtz-trademark WTF loss. This will either be vs UAB or USM.

There is literally no reason we cannot get to double digit wins in the regular season. Get it done.

[S'PortDawg]

There is literally no reason we cannot get to double digit wins in the regular season. Get it done.

1)Blake Baker

2) No Carlos Henderson and Trent Taylor

3)Blake Baker-- he's gets in twice.

[Blue Dawg]

1)Blake Baker

2) No Carlos Henderson and Trent Taylor

3)Blake Baker-- he's gets in twice.

I meant to imply we are the only obstacle to such an acheivement. I wholeheartedly agree with you. I've no doubt BB will lose us a game or two.

I do think we will be able to reload on offense, though not to Carlos+Trent standards.

[Terence32]

We lost 3 players to the NFL draft and have a brand new QB that only has 1 game under his belt. And unless y'all know something I don't, Blake Baker is still our Defensive Coordinator. I think our floor is 6-6 and our ceiling is 8-4.

lol ahhhh ok

[qng001]

Looking at what we had going into 2016-17.

1. We lost 3 players in Dixon, Butler, Driskel to the NFL.
2. We had Ryan Higgins who was a question mark and got arrested in the off-season.
3. Blake Baker was our DC.

We went 9-5.