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Thread: Battle of the Bulldogs Sept. 9 at The Joe

  1. #61
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    LaTech Re: Battle of the Bulldogs Sept. 9 at The Joe

    Sagarin Ranking Skip Holtz's Teams (Louisiana Tech; notable wins; close notable losses)
    2005: 92 (79)
    2006: 67 (157)
    2007: 64 (111)
    2008: 54 (87; MSST @93)
    2009: 51 (89)
    2010: 44 (91)
    2011: 59 (48; Ole Miss 103; MSST 31, lost in overtime)
    2012: 86 (51; Illinois 126, Virginia 87; Texas A&M 3, lost by 2)
    2013 166 (same)
    2014: 34 (same, Illinois 83)
    2015: 68 (same)
    2016: 59 (same, Navy 60)

    Top 3 best years:
    1. 2014 (Tech-34), just shows how important good coordinators are, the Diaz effect
    2. 2010 (USF-44)
    3. 2009 (ECU-51)

  2. #62
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    Re: Battle of the Bulldogs Sept. 9 at The Joe

    Quote Originally Posted by BearDawg137 View Post
    1. 2014 (Tech-34), just shows how important good coordinators are, the Diaz effect
    ...or how important it is for the DC to call his own game. Diaz is the only one who has been allowed that under COYHCSH. Not sure why our fans won't accept that our HC is the boss. He was not the boss of Diaz.
    "eye fo an eye and toof fo a toof" - Idiot in Missouri

  3. #63
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    Re: Battle of the Bulldogs Sept. 9 at The Joe

    Quote Originally Posted by PawDawg View Post
    ...or how important it is for the DC to call his own game. Diaz is the only one who has been allowed that under COYHCSH. Not sure why our fans won't accept that our HC is the boss. He was not the boss of Diaz.
    Maybe we should get LaTechBBB a press pass and let PawDawg ask the hard questions to HCSH, TMAD (Tommy McClelland: Athletic Director), etc. Then we could actually get some definitive answers
    Last edited by BearDawg137; 07-13-2017 at 12:03 PM.

  4. #64
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    Poll Re: Battle of the Bulldogs Sept. 9 at The Joe

    Quote Originally Posted by BearDawg137 View Post
    I'll add in some final Sagarin, but it'll make some of the "Money 5" Conference Teams look a bit less impressive

    2005: Duke (133)
    2006: Virginia (68), NCST (75), SoMiss (52)
    2007: UNC (69), #22 Boise St (48)
    2008: #17 Virginia Tech (18), #8 West Virginia (26)
    2009: #18 Houston (53), #1 FCS Appalachian St (76), SoMiss (77)
    2010: Clemson (53), Miami-FL (40), Louisville (51), Rutgers (90)
    2011: #16 Notre Dame (26), Syracuse (86)
    2012: - (best win Nevada 80)
    2013: SoMiss (199; our best win was UTEP at 186, then Lamar at 187)
    2014: SoMiss (140), Illinois (83), Rice (69)
    2015: - (best win ArkST 78)
    2016: WKU (19), #25 Navy (61)

    Skip's top 11 wins:
    1. #17 VT 2008 (18)
    2. WKU 2016 (19)
    3. #16 Notre Dame 2011 (26)
    3. #8 West Virginia 2008 (26)
    5. Miami-FL 2010 (40)
    6. #22 Boise St 2007 (48)
    7. Louisville 2010 (51)
    8. SoMiss 2006 (52)
    9. Clemson 2010 (53)
    9. #18 Houston 2009 (53)
    11. #25 Navy 2016 (51)
    This was a good opportunity for me to play with my Elo numbers. So I took a look at the "top" games for a couple of categories. I only count games between FBS teams (or top-division equivalent) (so UConn and the loss to NSU don't count, even though that loss is unquantifiably the worst).

    Holtz's all-time top wins:
    1. Boise St. (ID), 2007 (1881)
    2. Virginia Tech, 2008 (1650)
    3. West Virginia, 2008 (1602)
    4. Cincinnati (OH), 2010 (1382)
    5. Tulsa (OK), 2008 (1373)
    6. Navy (MD), 2016 (1327)
    7. Nevada, 2012 (1322)
    8. Western Kentucky, 2016 (1320)
    9. Miami (FL), 2010 (1303)
    10. Houston (TX), 2009 (1276)
    Holtz's all-time worst losses:
    1. Tulane (LA), 2013 (250)
    2. Southern Methodist (TX), 2009 (347)
    3. Kansas, 2013 (433)
    4. Army (NY), 2013 (448)
    5. Rice (TX), 2006 (514)
    6. Syracuse (NY), 2010 (589)
    7. Central Florida, 2005 (628)
    8. North Texas, 2013 (640)
    9. Marshall (WV), 2007 (716)
    10. Syracuse (NY), 2012 (721)
    Tech's all-time top wins (just for fun):
    1. Alabama, 1997 (1605)
    2. Ball St. (IN), 1978 (1551)
    3. Fresno St. (CA), 2005 (1500)
    4. Nevada, 2011 (1440)
    5. Bowling Green (OH), 1995 (1346)
    6. Navy (MD), 2016 (1327)
    7. Ouachita Baptist (AR), 1916 (1323)
    8. Western Kentucky, 2016 (1320)
    9. Alabama, 1999 (1314)
    10. Fresno St. (CA), 2004 (1273)
    Tech's all-time worst losses:
    1. New Mexico St., 2006 (223)
    2. Tulane (LA), 2013 (250)
    3. Utah St., 2009 (285)
    4. Army (NY), 2008 (305)
    5. Arkansas St., 1996 (333)
    6. Southern Methodist (TX), 2002 (340)
    7. Idaho, 2009 (349)
    8. New Mexico St., 1995 (382)
    9. Idaho, 2006 (402)
    10. Kansas, 2013 (433)
    I forget why we're talking about this. Thread derailed, I guess.

  5. #65
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    Re: Battle of the Bulldogs Sept. 9 at The Joe

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dawg View Post
    This was a good opportunity for me to play with my Elo numbers. So I took a look at the "top" games for a couple of categories. I only count games between FBS teams (or top-division equivalent) (so UConn and the loss to NSU don't count, even though that loss is unquantifiably the worst).


    Tech's all-time top wins (just for fun):
    1. Alabama, 1997 (1605)
    2. Ball St. (IN), 1978 (1551)
    3. Fresno St. (CA), 2005 (1500)
    4. Nevada, 2011 (1440)
    5. Bowling Green (OH), 1995 (1346)
    6. Navy (MD), 2016 (1327)
    7. Ouachita Baptist (AR), 1916 (1323)
    8. Western Kentucky, 2016 (1320)
    9. Alabama, 1999 (1314)
    10. Fresno St. (CA), 2004 (1273)
    I forget why we're talking about this. Thread derailed, I guess.
    Some people say Holtz doesn't care about big games. I was showing he did, and tried to compare some of his successes to Tech's. I also found it cool that Tech last beat MSST the same day Holtz beat Virginia Tech

    Interesting top ELO wins, what would it have been if we had beat LSU in '09, MSST in '11, TA&M in '12, KST in '15, and WKU again last year?

    Also, any idea why 2, 5, and 7 are so high?

  6. #66
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    Re: Battle of the Bulldogs Sept. 9 at The Joe

    Quote Originally Posted by BearDawg137 View Post
    Some people say Holtz doesn't care about big games. I was showing he did, and tried to compare some of his successes to Tech's. I also found it cool that Tech last beat MSST the same day Holtz beat Virginia Tech
    Definitely!

    Interesting top ELO wins, what would it have been if we had beat LSU in '09, MSST in '11, TA&M in '12, KST in '15, and WKU again last year?
    Hard to say, because it depends on what everyone else does during that time. I'd say we'd probably be ranked in the Top 25 though. WKU is in the Top 15, I think, right now.

    Also, any idea why 2, 5, and 7 are so high?
    Late 70s Ball St was a juggernaut. In 1978 they were 10-1! We were their only loss. The weird part is we had a lackluster 6-5 season.

    In 1994 Bowling Green was pretty good, going 9-2. We kicked off a season-long slide for them.

    Remember that the ranking serves as an absolute snapshot at the time. OBU was a top team...in the Teens. They appear to have been reasonably good for about a decade, then dropping hard just in time for the 1937 Purge.

  7. #67
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    Re: Battle of the Bulldogs Sept. 9 at The Joe

    Oops, misread your question. Here's what would happen if we'd won those games:
    1. Louisiana St., 2009 (1766)
    2. Alabama, 1997 (1605)
    3. Western Kentucky, 2016 (1600)
    4. Ball St. (IN), 1978 (1551)
    5. Fresno St. (CA), 2005 (1500)
    6. Kansas St., 2015 (1491)
    7. Nevada, 2011 (1440)
    8. Texas A&M, 2012 (1367)
    9. Bowling Green (OH), 1995 (1346)
    10. Navy (MD), 2016 (1327)
    As usual, all that stands between us and greatness is less than 14 points (maybe less than 10, too lazy to look up those scores).

  8. #68
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    Re: Battle of the Bulldogs Sept. 9 at The Joe

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dawg View Post
    Oops, misread your question. Here's what would happen if we'd won those games:
    1. Louisiana St., 2009 (1766)
    2. Alabama, 1997 (1605)
    3. Western Kentucky, 2016 (1600)
    4. Ball St. (IN), 1978 (1551)
    5. Fresno St. (CA), 2005 (1500)
    6. Kansas St., 2015 (1491)
    7. Nevada, 2011 (1440)
    8. Texas A&M, 2012 (1367)
    9. Bowling Green (OH), 1995 (1346)
    10. Navy (MD), 2016 (1327)
    As usual, all that stands between us and greatness is less than 14 points (maybe less than 10, too lazy to look up those scores).
    Thank you, very interesting stats!

  9. #69
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    Re: Battle of the Bulldogs Sept. 9 at The Joe

    I just can't wait to make the trip down from Central Iowa to see our Dawgs whip Mississippi State!!

  10. #70
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    Re: Battle of the Bulldogs Sept. 9 at The Joe

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dawg View Post
    1. Alabama, 1997 (1605)
    2. Ball St. (IN), 1978 (1551)
    3. Fresno St. (CA), 2005 (1500)
    4. Nevada, 2011 (1440)
    5. Bowling Green (OH), 1995 (1346)
    6. Navy (MD), 2016 (1327)
    7. Ouachita Baptist (AR), 1916 (1323)
    8. Western Kentucky, 2016 (1320)
    9. Alabama, 1999 (1314)
    10. Fresno St. (CA), 2004 (1273)
    I'm surprised that 1997 Alabama ranks that much higher than 1999 Alabama.

  11. #71
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    Re: Battle of the Bulldogs Sept. 9 at The Joe

    Quote Originally Posted by Champ967 View Post
    I'm surprised that 1997 Alabama ranks that much higher than 1999 Alabama.
    That's a reflection of pre-1997 Bama (which was good) and 1997-98 Bama (4-7, 7-5). 1999 was a good year for them (despite losing to Tech...again), but they'd lost a lot of Elo points by that game.

    There's also the fact that at the end of every season, a team regresses 25% back towards the mean of 1000. That's a lot of work to overcome.

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    Re: Battle of the Bulldogs Sept. 9 at The Joe

    Watched some of the 2016 Miss State vs. Auburn game on SEC network this evening.....we will have a good shot to beat Ms. State. In fact, we will beat them unless they have some heavy hitters coming in from Juco or redshirt freshmen.....the Miss St program / team is not special right now. We will be the bigger and faster team.....lets see if we can put the pieces together.

  13. #73
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    Re: Battle of the Bulldogs Sept. 9 at The Joe

    Tech's all-time top wins (just for fun):
    1. Alabama, 1997 (1605)
    2. Ball St. (IN), 1978 (1551)
    3. Fresno St. (CA), 2005 (1500)
    4. Nevada, 2011 (1440)
    5. Bowling Green (OH), 1995 (1346)
    6. Navy (MD), 2016 (1327)
    7. Ouachita Baptist (AR), 1916 (1323)
    8. Western Kentucky, 2016 (1320)
    9. Alabama, 1999 (1314)
    10. Fresno St. (CA), 2004 (1273)
    On that 1978 Ball State win...

    They finished that year 10-1 (not sure about a bowl game). We beat 'em 17-7 in Ruston. Their defense was #1 in the nation, and in fact, just the week before our game with 'em they were featured on a national TV college football show as they were neck and neck with Penn State for the top spot on points allowed.

    We struck quickly, a play-action bomb for a TD on our opening series. But, that #1 defense was for real and in the waning moments of the game we held a 10-7 lead. They faced a 4th and long, backed up inside their own 20, barely a minute left and they were out of timeouts, yet, they sent out their punting team. Many of our fans questioned that. Someone said Penn State surrendered X points that day (ours was a night game) and if they hold us to 10, Ball State would again lead the nation in points allowed. So! we surmised they feared turning the ball over on downs so deep in their territory and we might score again. BUT!! we put on a big rush and their blocking back stepped back into the path of their punter who hit that back...in the back...with the punt, the ball bounced back into the EZ where we recovered for a TD! Final 17-7. We laughed....

    Anyway, that 1978 Ball State team was good (MAC championship). It was a quality win.

    Looked it up...the 4 weeks leading up to our game they had given up a total of 3 points. They beat Kent State 27-3 and they pitched 3 shut-outs! All year the most points they gave up in a game was to us, other than that two teams scored 14 on 'em. In fact, in their first 6 games, coming into Ruston they had surrendered a grand total of 17 points. They opened with a win over Miami(O) 38-14, had a shutout, beat Kent State 27-3, and then three straight shutouts...

    No bowl game for them. Back in 1978 there were something like 12 or 13 bowls total. We lost to ECU in the Indy Bowl that year.

  14. #74
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    Re: Battle of the Bulldogs Sept. 9 at The Joe

    Louisiana Tech 23, nlulm 0 - 11/19/88
    Put us back on our path of dominance and returned the mouth-breathing slow blinkers to the crap pile
    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/LouisianaTechMemphis/

    "Folks, our President is STEPPING UP & it is up to all of us FANatics to support what he is trying to do."

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