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Thread: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

  1. #1
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    Poll Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    We won 9 games last year. And the year before that. And the year before that. We're predicted to win 9 games this year.

    Despite this, Sagarin ranks us #74. That's just disrespectful.

    Last Yr This Wk
    Sag Rk 68 74
    Sag Rat
    67.89
    Pred W-L
    9-3
    Pred W-L
    0.750
    Home Adv
    2.41
    OOC Rk
    104
    Conf Rk
    119
    Conf Opp Rk
    119


    H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W%

    228 NWSt 28.66 41.64 W


    1.00

    31 MSU 79.23 -8.93 L


    0.28
    @ 53 WKU 73.64 -8.16 L


    0.30
    @ 50 SC 74.60 -9.12 L


    0.27

    106 SA 59.72 10.58 W


    0.76
    @ 152 UAB 50.26 15.22 W


    0.88

    103 USM 60.07 10.23 W


    0.76
    @ 132 Rice 54.02 11.46 W


    0.79

    129 UNT 55.20 15.10 W


    0.88

    136 FAU 53.16 17.14 W


    0.93
    @ 150 UTEP 50.58 14.90 W


    0.87

    100 UTSA 60.45 9.85 W


    0.75

    Rk C-USA
    53 Western Kentucky
    74 Louisiana Tech
    84 Middle Tennessee
    100 UTSA
    102 Old Dominion
    103 Southern Miss
    111 Marshall
    129 North Texas
    132 Rice
    136 Florida Atlantic
    150 UTEP
    152 UAB
    153 Fla. International
    184 Charlotte

    Games Chance to win at least x games
    0 100
    1 100
    2 100
    3 99
    4 95
    5 84
    6 62
    7 34
    8 13
    9 3
    10 0
    11 0
    12 0

  2. #2
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    does everyone pick us to start 1-3?

  3. #3
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by counselingdawg View Post
    does everyone pick us to start 1-3?
    I think 2-1

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by counselingdawg View Post
    does everyone pick us to start 1-3?
    They don't read past "not Cartel 5" and just pencil in 1-3. If we go 1-3 against that group it's going to be a long year, I think. We have the stones to go at least 2-2 if Skip will let us, and 3-1 isn't totally out of the question. 4-0 would essentially mean we'd go undefeated the rest of the way, and I think that's a little out of reach.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dawg View Post
    We won 9 games last year. And the year before that. And the year before that. We're predicted to win 9 games this year.

    Despite this, Sagarin ranks us #74. That's just disrespectful.
    That is quite an understatement. Mississippi State and South Carolina finished last season with Losing records, yet we are underdogs to both. Miss State even finished the regular season with a losing record. That's BS! I can see both teams having losing regular season records this YEAR, as well.

    I admit South Carolina will be a tough place to play, but that game is winnable. No way should Mississippi State be favored against us at home. People must think our entire offense is in the NFL and we have nothing left. I just cannot imagine starting 1-3. IMO I think starting 4-0 is more likely than 1-3. If we do start 4-0, watch out baby! SHOCK THE NATION!

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by counselingdawg View Post
    does everyone pick us to start 1-3?
    I don't pick us to start 1-3. No way should we be underdogs to Miss State.

  7. #7
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    I do understand that these are computer rankings. But even those have bias: my own rankings have bias, and are usually too favorable to teams who win a lot against cupcakes. Before redoing my SoS adjustment, I had Georgia Southern in my Top 25! So I understand the need to add those corrections for schedule. Unfortunately, I suspect that Sagarin falls into the same trap as everyone else, and makes too much hay from conference affiliation.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Sagarin is not out to get us. They are never accurate in the beginning. Don't EVER use them to help figure out which team to bet on in the first few weeks. You will lose BIG!
    "eye fo an eye and toof fo a toof" - Idiot in Missouri

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by PawDawg View Post
    Sagarin is not out to get us. They are never accurate in the beginning. Don't EVER use them to help figure out which team to bet on in the first few weeks. You will lose BIG!
    That's true of any ranking. Although - Sagarin correctly picked every game last year except for WKU, and that was the initial rankings. Just saying.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by counselingdawg View Post
    does everyone pick us to start 1-3?
    Im going 2-2 but im not telling who the other win is.

  11. #11
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Key game will be WK. 3-1 if we can win it. Nothing unusual about that-- preseason SEC teams ranked #31 and # 50. 2 time defending champs WK ranked # 53. Rest of schedule ranked from 100 to 228 except MT (84). We do get respect but conference does not-- 7 teams preseason 125 ranking and worse. For 3 years now we finish September with losing record and rebound from there... I hope I'm wrong about September but 1-3 would not panic me-- Leaving myself a little wiggle room - if DEFENCE steps up ....

  12. #12
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    We drop a few spots after not beating NWSt by as much as we should have. Something closer to a 40 point win would probably have kept us steady (I keep a measure of game quality in the schedule list, 59 is not good at all, 80+ would be much better). As a result, the MSU line dropped by 4 points and the SC line by 2 (the WKU line rose by 4 but still not enough to give us the edge). The numbers here do not give me a good feeling about our chances for any type of marquee win, but I think we've all come to expect that.

    Last Wk This Wk
    Sag Rk 74 79
    Sag Rat 67.89 65.08
    Pred W-L 9-3 9-3
    Pred W-L 0.750 0.750
    Home Adv 2.41 2.41
    OOC Rk 104 100
    Conf Rk 119 121
    Conf Opp Rk 119 122

    H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W%


    NWSt
    28

    W 59.07

    25 MSU 83.15 -12.85 L -3.92

    0.18
    @ 59 WKU 69.55 -4.07 L 4.09

    0.40
    @ 38 SC 76.57 -11.09 L -1.97

    0.22

    109 SA 59.95 10.35 W -0.23

    0.76
    @ 147 UAB 49.7 15.78 W 0.56

    0.89

    111 USM 60.49 9.81 W -0.42

    0.75
    @ 136 Rice 50.27 15.21 W 3.75

    0.88

    119 UNT 59.34 10.96 W -4.14

    0.77

    141 FAU 52.08 18.22 W 1.08

    0.96
    @ 146 UTEP 50.26 15.22 W 0.32

    0.88

    115 UTSA 58.38 11.92 W 2.07

    0.80

    Rk C-USA
    59 Western Kentucky
    79 Louisiana Tech
    98 Marshall
    99 Old Dominion
    100 Middle Tennessee
    111 Southern Miss
    115 UTSA
    119 North Texas
    136 Rice
    141 Florida Atlantic
    146 UTEP
    147 UAB
    160 Fla. International
    187 Charlotte

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    LaTech Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    To add to Bluedawg's post, I've compiled the rankings from Massey, Sagarin (I realize Massey includes Sagarin), USA Today Paul Myerberg, CBS, and College Football Network (these 3 did not appear to be included with Massey), and then I averaged the scores together as my own composite. I've also included all the FBS schools in Louisiana, our former WAC rivals Fresno State & Nevada, and our FBS Non-conference opponents.

    Massey Sagarin PaulMyerberg USAToday CFN CBS Composite
    Conference USA
    WKU 41 59 27 61 40 45.6
    Tech 66 79 44 81 61 66.2
    ODU 80 99 54 88 88 81.8
    SoMiss 94 111 72 78 74 85.8
    Marshall 101 98 73 97 70 87.8
    MTSU 100 100 86 83 99 93.6
    UTSA 92 115 67 110 104 97.6
    UNT 109 119 88 106 103 105
    FAU 124 141 107 108 113 118.6
    UAB 113 147 125 129 101 123
    Rice 128 136 114 125 127 126
    UTEP 125 146 127 118 121 127.4
    FIU 126 160 119 109 125 127.8
    UNCC 130 187 122 126 124 137.8
    Non-Conference Schedule
    USCaro 50 38 32 29 34 36.6
    MSST 37 25 53 45 37 39.4
    USA 112 109 100 119 106 109.2
    In-State Schools and Former WAC Rivals
    Nevada 103 108 95 85 116 101.4
    FS 111 133 123 103 95 113
    LSU 6 4 12 16 9 9.4
    Tulane 90 116 98 102 96 100.4
    ULM 118 132 121 111 89 114.2
    ULL 95 105 115 122 110 109.4
    Louisiana Tech University


    Flagship of the University of Louisiana System


  14. #14
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Fresno's fall has been precipitous and I love it.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W%


    NWSt
    28

    W 59.07

    25 MSU 83.15 -12.85 L -3.92

    0.18
    @ 59 WKU 69.55 -4.07 L 4.09

    0.40
    @ 38 SC 76.57 -11.09 L -1.97

    0.22

    109 SA 59.95 10.35 W -0.23

    0.76
    @ 147 UAB 49.7 15.78 W 0.56

    0.89

    111 USM 60.49 9.81 W -0.42

    0.75
    @ 136 Rice 50.27 15.21 W 3.75

    0.88

    119 UNT 59.34 10.96 W -4.14

    0.77

    141 FAU 52.08 18.22 W 1.08

    0.96
    @ 146 UTEP 50.26 15.22 W 0.32

    0.88

    115 UTSA 58.38 11.92 W 2.07


    I would be happy with this to be the results at the end of the season. However, I would trade a loss against MSU or USC for a win against any of the other games and call it our WTF game.

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