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Thread: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

  1. #16
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by BearDawg137 View Post
    To add to Bluedawg's post, I've compiled the rankings from Massey, Sagarin (I realize Massey includes Sagarin), USA Today Paul Myerberg, CBS, and College Football Network (these 3 did not appear to be included with Massey), and then I averaged the scores together as my own composite. I've also included all the FBS schools in Louisiana, our former WAC rivals Fresno State & Nevada, and our FBS Non-conference opponents.

    A more condensed version.

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  2. #17
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dawg View Post
    Fresno's fall has been precipitous and I love it.
    Fresno St has never been the same since firing Pat Hill.

  3. #18
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by HogDawg View Post
    Fresno St has never been the same since firing Pat Hill.
    He couldn't beat Boazy, and never won a conference title. Maybe he beat Boazy once or twice, but out of 15+ chances that ain't good. Of course, sometimes you don't know how good ya got it, and Fresno was (is) guilty of that affliction that grips all of us....wanting more! Yes, I said "all of us."

    Speaking of Boazy, they aren't the same since Peterson left. After a run of something like three straight coaches that got them "to the top" and kept them there, looks like that run is over. Or at least, temporarily derailed.

    As for both Fresno and Boazy, and throw in Hawaii and Nevada too, couldn't happen to nicer bunches. Still despise all four.

  4. #19
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by dawg80 View Post
    As for both Fresno and Boazy, and throw in Hawaii and Nevada too, couldn't happen to nicer bunches. Still despise all four.
    Regarding fresneck and hawaii: the most condescending, rude, foul-mouthed, and overall insufferable fans I've ever come across. And I've been to Kyle Field. Glad to know those POS's are miserable these days. Both fan bases are essential made up of nothing but that crazy youtube UTEP fan.

  5. #20
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Built4Speed View Post
    Both fan bases are essential made up of nothing but that crazy youtube UTEP fan.
    NSFW Blast from the Past: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoj1B6eTJwM

    That crazy YouTube UTEP fan made that video as a preview of the Tech-UTEP in 2014. Spoiler Alert: Tech beat UTEP 55-3.
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  6. #21
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    Poll Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    There was a lot of movement in the upcoming lines this week. The most interesting was the fact that our cumulative chances of 10 wins (regular season) have dropped from 1% to well below. Our chances of 8 wins (leaving the option of 2 more to get to double digits) dropped from 29% to 4%. This is mostly due to the fact that we are now only predicted to edge USM and UTSA, and I bet that will drop further after next week. SC is also now going to blow us out of the water rather than merely beat us (there's still a week left for some positive movement). The other thing to notice is the drop in quality (59 to 53). To some extent thats expected thanks to the difference in team quality, but it's a little concerning since it's already a metric of opponent quality, basically to what extent did we cover the spread. We are also now #4 in the conference (down from #2).

    Also, I may add Elo updates on this thread. It wont take me long to do it but I just got back home from a long journey I wish to forget and I have a class at 8:30 tomorrow so y'all will have to wait (I know, I know, you're hanging on my every number).

    Last Wk This Wk
    Sag Rk 79 86
    Sag Rat 65.08 62.37
    Pred W-L 9-3 9-3
    Pred W-L 0.750 0.750
    Home Adv 2.41 2.41
    OOC Rk 100 100
    Conf Rk 121 120
    Conf Opp Rk 122 119

    H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W%

    228 NWSt
    28

    W 59.07

    25 MSU
    -33

    L 52.56
    @ 69 WKU 67.04 -7.08 L -0.20

    0.32
    @ 31 SC 78.44 -18.48 L -4.58

    0.04

    117 SA 58.15 6.63 W -0.91

    0.67
    @ 155 UAB 48.75 11.21 W -1.76

    0.78

    97 USM 63.81 0.97 W -6.03

    0.52
    @ 131 Rice 53.33 6.63 W -5.77

    0.67

    128 UNT 57.2 7.58 W -0.57

    0.69

    137 FAU 55.79 8.99 W -6.42

    0.72
    @ 161 UTEP 47.82 12.14 W -0.27

    0.80

    75 UTSA 64.35 0.43 W -8.68

    0.51

    Rk C-USA
    69 Western Kentucky
    75 UTSA
    85 Middle Tennessee
    86 Louisiana Tech
    95 Old Dominion
    97 Southern Miss
    107 Marshall
    128 North Texas
    131 Rice
    137 Florida Atlantic
    155 UAB
    157 Fla. International
    161 UTEP
    190 Charlotte

  7. #22
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dawg View Post
    There was a lot of movement in the upcoming lines this week. The most interesting was the fact that our cumulative chances of 10 wins (regular season) have dropped from 1% to well below. Our chances of 8 wins (leaving the option of 2 more to get to double digits) dropped from 29% to 4%. This is mostly due to the fact that we are now only predicted to edge USM and UTSA, and I bet that will drop further after next week. SC is also now going to blow us out of the water rather than merely beat us (there's still a week left for some positive movement). The other thing to notice is the drop in quality (59 to 53). To some extent thats expected thanks to the difference in team quality, but it's a little concerning since it's already a metric of opponent quality, basically to what extent did we cover the spread. We are also now #4 in the conference (down from #2).

    To me, I feel WKU is extremely overrated, especially as they were essentially shut out by Illinois (TD in garbage time), and only generated 6 SIX rushing yards. According to their former coach, their running game set the tone for the entire offense, so I feel we're likely to blow them out, even with our woes.
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  8. #23
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by BearDawg137 View Post
    To me, I feel WKU is extremely overrated, especially as they were essentially shut out by Illinois (TD in garbage time), and only generated 6 SIX rushing yards. According to their former coach, their running game set the tone for the entire offense, so I feel we're likely to blow them out, even with our woes.
    After watching our last two games, I'm not confident about any game left on the schedule. Who knows what this team will look like next week?

  9. #24
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by SicemDawgz View Post
    After watching our last two games, I'm not confident about any game left on the schedule. Who knows what this team will look like next week?
    We'll be fine!

  10. #25
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Be aware of the limitations of Elo.

    We dropped from 1300 last season to 1163 after the loss (applying regression to the mean > 1225, then a 62-point drop for the loss). That makes it the 3rd worst loss since 2014 (the top two are shockingly USM).

    We have two opponents left that are above average (above 1000). SC's home advantage pushes them to a win over us. The WKU % is something like 12%.

    Of course, since Elo is more descriptive than prescriptive, we can regain those lost points with a win at WKU.

    Or we could drop below 1000 for the first time since 2013, which is definitely possible with two more performances like MSU.

    opp elo
    Northwestern LA
    Mississippi St. 1264
    Western Kentucky 1408
    South Carolina 1090
    South Alabama 614
    Alabama-Birmingham 690
    Southern Mississippi 820
    Rice (TX) 647
    North Texas 431
    Florida Atlantic 435
    Texas-El Paso 430
    Texas-San Antonio 811

  11. #26
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Week2-2017.jpg

    Updated; I've added record and composite changes as well. We've dropped to 6th in conference. I think we'll be back in the top 3 after we beat WKU this Saturday.
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  12. #27
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by sportdawg View Post
    We'll be fine!
    We've got to figure out how to convert those 3rd and 93's. How hard can it be?

    I have a 6-year old grandson in Springdale, AR. They had a tackle football tournament with two weeks of practice before hand. They got to play two games with full gear, cheerleaders and everything. I was amazed at how well they did considering most of them had never played organized football before. The difference in execution between their first and second game was amazing.

    As I sat laughing my ass off at Tech's weird 87 yard loss I couldn't help but think of those 6 year old kids.

  13. #28
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by glm47 View Post
    We've got to figure out how to convert those 3rd and 93's. How hard can it be?

    I have a 6-year old grandson in Springdale, AR. They had a tackle football tournament with two weeks of practice before hand. They got to play two games with full gear, cheerleaders and everything. I was amazed at how well they did considering most of them had never played organized football before. The difference in execution between their first and second game was amazing.

    As I sat laughing my ass off at Tech's weird 87 yard loss I couldn't help but think of those 6 year old kids.
    We should have run the play were the WR runs right at the DB and tries to get Pass Interference.

  14. #29
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    We rise to last week's spot, while WKU falls to just above us.

    Last Wk This Wk
    Sag Rk 86 79
    Sag Rat 62.37 64.29
    Pred W-L 9-3 10-2
    Pred W-L 0.750 0.833
    Home Adv 2.41 2.41
    OOC Rk 100 105
    Conf Rk 120 121
    Conf Opp Rk 119 119


    H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W%

    228 NWSt
    28

    W 59.07

    25 MSU
    -36

    L 49.56
    @ 69 WKU
    1

    W 68.04
    @ 54 SC 74.35 -12.47 L 6.01

    0.19

    111 SA 59.35 7.35 W 0.72

    0.68
    @ 150 UAB 49.36 12.52 W 1.31

    0.81

    91 USM 65.17 1.53 W 0.56

    0.54
    @ 137 Rice 50.81 11.07 W 4.44

    0.78

    128 UNT 57.82 8.88 W 1.3

    0.72

    117 FAU 60.4 6.30 W -2.69

    0.66
    @ 174 UTEP 44.54 17.34 W 5.2

    0.93

    86 UTSA 64.48 2.22 W 1.79

    0.56


    Rk C-USA
    78 Western Kentucky
    79 Louisiana Tech
    86 UTSA
    91 Southern Miss
    92 Middle Tennessee
    98 Marshall
    105 Old Dominion
    117 Florida Atlantic
    128 North Texas
    137 Rice
    150 UAB
    163 Fla. International
    174 UTEP
    191 Charlotte

  15. #30
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2017

    Time for things to start making sense in Sagarin. I guess it will take one more week. I guess our home loss to Miss St hurt us more than the WKU loss at Illinois. Seems like our road win at WKU would put us over the top. NSU losing to Grambling had to hurt us.
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