A more condensed version.
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A more condensed version.
Untitled.jpg
He couldn't beat Boazy, and never won a conference title. Maybe he beat Boazy once or twice, but out of 15+ chances that ain't good. Of course, sometimes you don't know how good ya got it, and Fresno was (is) guilty of that affliction that grips all of us....wanting more! Yes, I said "all of us."
Speaking of Boazy, they aren't the same since Peterson left. After a run of something like three straight coaches that got them "to the top" and kept them there, looks like that run is over. Or at least, temporarily derailed.
As for both Fresno and Boazy, and throw in Hawaii and Nevada too, couldn't happen to nicer bunches. Still despise all four.
Regarding fresneck and hawaii: the most condescending, rude, foul-mouthed, and overall insufferable fans I've ever come across. And I've been to Kyle Field. Glad to know those POS's are miserable these days. Both fan bases are essential made up of nothing but that crazy youtube UTEP fan.
NSFW Blast from the Past: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoj1B6eTJwM
That crazy YouTube UTEP fan made that video as a preview of the Tech-UTEP in 2014. Spoiler Alert: Tech beat UTEP 55-3.
There was a lot of movement in the upcoming lines this week. The most interesting was the fact that our cumulative chances of 10 wins (regular season) have dropped from 1% to well below. Our chances of 8 wins (leaving the option of 2 more to get to double digits) dropped from 29% to 4%. This is mostly due to the fact that we are now only predicted to edge USM and UTSA, and I bet that will drop further after next week. SC is also now going to blow us out of the water rather than merely beat us (there's still a week left for some positive movement). The other thing to notice is the drop in quality (59 to 53). To some extent thats expected thanks to the difference in team quality, but it's a little concerning since it's already a metric of opponent quality, basically to what extent did we cover the spread. We are also now #4 in the conference (down from #2).
Also, I may add Elo updates on this thread. It wont take me long to do it but I just got back home from a long journey I wish to forget and I have a class at 8:30 tomorrow so y'all will have to wait (I know, I know, you're hanging on my every number).
Last Wk This Wk Sag Rk 79 86 Sag Rat 65.08 62.37 Pred W-L 9-3 9-3 Pred W-L 0.750 0.750 Home Adv 2.41 2.41 OOC Rk 100 100 Conf Rk 121 120 Conf Opp Rk 122 119
H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W%
228 NWSt
28
W 59.07
25 MSU
-33
L 52.56
@ 69 WKU 67.04 -7.08 L -0.20
0.32 @ 31 SC 78.44 -18.48 L -4.58
0.04
117 SA 58.15 6.63 W -0.91
0.67 @ 155 UAB 48.75 11.21 W -1.76
0.78
97 USM 63.81 0.97 W -6.03
0.52 @ 131 Rice 53.33 6.63 W -5.77
0.67
128 UNT 57.2 7.58 W -0.57
0.69
137 FAU 55.79 8.99 W -6.42
0.72 @ 161 UTEP 47.82 12.14 W -0.27
0.80
75 UTSA 64.35 0.43 W -8.68
0.51
Rk C-USA 69 Western Kentucky 75 UTSA 85 Middle Tennessee 86 Louisiana Tech 95 Old Dominion 97 Southern Miss 107 Marshall 128 North Texas 131 Rice 137 Florida Atlantic 155 UAB 157 Fla. International 161 UTEP 190 Charlotte
To me, I feel WKU is extremely overrated, especially as they were essentially shut out by Illinois (TD in garbage time), and only generated 6 SIX rushing yards. According to their former coach, their running game set the tone for the entire offense, so I feel we're likely to blow them out, even with our woes.
Be aware of the limitations of Elo.
We dropped from 1300 last season to 1163 after the loss (applying regression to the mean > 1225, then a 62-point drop for the loss). That makes it the 3rd worst loss since 2014 (the top two are shockingly USM).
We have two opponents left that are above average (above 1000). SC's home advantage pushes them to a win over us. The WKU % is something like 12%.
Of course, since Elo is more descriptive than prescriptive, we can regain those lost points with a win at WKU.
Or we could drop below 1000 for the first time since 2013, which is definitely possible with two more performances like MSU.
opp elo
Northwestern LA
Mississippi St. 1264
Western Kentucky 1408
South Carolina 1090
South Alabama 614
Alabama-Birmingham 690
Southern Mississippi 820
Rice (TX) 647
North Texas 431
Florida Atlantic 435
Texas-El Paso 430
Texas-San Antonio 811
Week2-2017.jpg
Updated; I've added record and composite changes as well. We've dropped to 6th in conference. I think we'll be back in the top 3 after we beat WKU this Saturday.
We've got to figure out how to convert those 3rd and 93's. How hard can it be?
I have a 6-year old grandson in Springdale, AR. They had a tackle football tournament with two weeks of practice before hand. They got to play two games with full gear, cheerleaders and everything. I was amazed at how well they did considering most of them had never played organized football before. The difference in execution between their first and second game was amazing.
As I sat laughing my ass off at Tech's weird 87 yard loss I couldn't help but think of those 6 year old kids.
We rise to last week's spot, while WKU falls to just above us.
Last Wk This Wk Sag Rk 86 79 Sag Rat 62.37 64.29 Pred W-L 9-3 10-2 Pred W-L 0.750 0.833 Home Adv 2.41 2.41 OOC Rk 100 105 Conf Rk 120 121 Conf Opp Rk 119 119
H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W%
228 NWSt
28
W 59.07
25 MSU
-36
L 49.56
@ 69 WKU
1
W 68.04
@ 54 SC 74.35 -12.47 L 6.01
0.19
111 SA 59.35 7.35 W 0.72
0.68 @ 150 UAB 49.36 12.52 W 1.31
0.81
91 USM 65.17 1.53 W 0.56
0.54 @ 137 Rice 50.81 11.07 W 4.44
0.78
128 UNT 57.82 8.88 W 1.3
0.72
117 FAU 60.4 6.30 W -2.69
0.66 @ 174 UTEP 44.54 17.34 W 5.2
0.93
86 UTSA 64.48 2.22 W 1.79
0.56
Rk C-USA 78 Western Kentucky 79 Louisiana Tech 86 UTSA 91 Southern Miss 92 Middle Tennessee 98 Marshall 105 Old Dominion 117 Florida Atlantic 128 North Texas 137 Rice 150 UAB 163 Fla. International 174 UTEP 191 Charlotte
Time for things to start making sense in Sagarin. I guess it will take one more week. I guess our home loss to Miss St hurt us more than the WKU loss at Illinois. Seems like our road win at WKU would put us over the top. NSU losing to Grambling had to hurt us.