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Thread: Games decided by 7 points or less in the Skip Holtz era

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    Games decided by 7 points or less in the Skip Holtz era

    I compiled a list of all the close losses and close wins during the Skip Holtz era. The word close meaning games decided by 7 points or less. In those games he has a win/loss record of 7-12
    with a winning percentage of .368



    2013

    LOST
    Kansas 13-10

    WON

    UTEP 38-35

    2014

    LOST
    Northwestern St 30-27

    Old Dominion 30-27

    Marshall 26-23

    WON

    UTSA 27-20

    2015

    LOST


    WKU 41-38

    Kansas State 39-33

    WON


    UTSA 34-31
    UTEP 17-15

    2016

    LOST
    Arkansas 21-20

    MTSU 38-34

    WON

    WKU 55-52

    NAVY 48-45

    2017

    LOST
    South Carolina 17-16

    UAB 23-22

    Southern Miss 34-27 (2 OT)

    North Tx 24-23

    WON

    WKU 23-22

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    Re: Games decided by 7 points or less in the Skip Holtz era

    More numbers that will depress or infuriate

    Tech has played 36 regulation quarters of football in 2017. Tech has scored in 31 of those 36 quarters, a high number for a team averaging just 28.9 points per game.

    All five quarters Tech has been shut out are 3rd quarters where Tech has been outscored 65-24 (record 1-6-2 in 3rd quarters). Strangely, the game status at halftime (ahead or behind) hasn't changed after 3 quarters in any Tech game this year.

    Tech has scored only 3 points on offense in a quarter 11 times, and that includes 5 in the 2nd quarter vs Mississippi State with the blocked extra point return.

    The first quarter is the best indicator of Tech results. Tech has only won against WKU when losing the 1st quarter and only lost against South Carolina when winning the first quarter. Every other game Tech has won if leading after the first and has lost if it wasn't ahead.

    Tech has blown three halftime and 3-quarter leads (South Carolina, USM, North Texas) and has only one halftime/3-quarter comeback win (WKU).

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    Re: Games decided by 7 points or less in the Skip Holtz era

    Frisco, I'd like to see that analysis for all of Holtz's games. The first quarter lead is particularly interesting.

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    Re: Games decided by 7 points or less in the Skip Holtz era

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dawg View Post
    Frisco, I'd like to see that analysis for all of Holtz's games. The first quarter lead is particularly interesting.
    Holtz record at Tech 35-27

    1st quarter leads

    2017--4-4-1 (lost South Carolina when leading, won WKU when trailing, lost USM when tied)
    2016--8-3-3 (won all 8 games leading, lost all 3 games trailing, won only Massachusetts and lost Arkansas and Middle Tennessee when tied)
    2015--9-3-1 (lost only Mississippi State when leading, lost all 3 games trailing, won ULL when tied)
    2014--9-4-1 (lost NSU, ODU, and Marshall when leading; won UTSA and USM when trailing; won North Texas when tied)
    2013--6-6-0 (lost Kansas and Noth Texas when leading, lost all games when trailing)

    1st quarter leads--36-20-6
    Ahead--29-7
    Behind--3-17
    Tied--3-3

    Halftime leads
    Halftime leads--39-20-3
    Ahead--30-9
    Behind 3-17
    Tied 2-1

    3rd quarter leads
    3rd quarter leads--42-18-2
    Ahead--33-9
    Behind--1-17
    Tied--1-1
    Last edited by FriscoDawg; 11-05-2017 at 07:57 PM.

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    Re: Games decided by 7 points or less in the Skip Holtz era

    Holtz needs to pack it in. I've seen all I need to see.

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    Re: Games decided by 7 points or less in the Skip Holtz era

    Quote Originally Posted by FriscoDawg View Post
    1st quarter leads
    2017--4-4-1 (lost South Carolina when leading, won WKU when trailing, lost USM when tied)
    2016--8-3-3 (won all 8 games leading, lost all 3 games trailing, won only Massachusetts and lost Arkansas and Middle Tennessee when tied)
    2015--9-3-1 (lost only Mississippi State when leading, lost all 3 games trailing, won ULL when tied)
    2014--9-4-1 (lost NSU, ODU, and Marshall when leading; won UTSA and USM when trailing; won North Texas when tied)
    2013--6-6-0 (lost Kansas and Noth Texas when leading, lost all games when trailing)

    Career at Tech--36-20-6 winning 1st quarters, 35-27 overall record
    29-7 when leading after 1st quarters
    3-17 when trailing after 1st quarters
    3-3 when tied after 1st quarters
    WOW. That is amazing. The Greeks should be leaving after the first quarter, not the half.

    Quote Originally Posted by HogDawg View Post
    Holtz needs to pack it in. I've seen all I need to see.
    Yup. Time for a change. Let's get a head start on the search.

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    Re: Games decided by 7 points or less in the Skip Holtz era

    Quote Originally Posted by FriscoDawg View Post
    Career at Tech... 35-27 overall record
    29-7 when leading after 1st quarters
    3-17 when trailing after 1st quarters
    3-3 when tied after 1st quarters
    That's some interesting info. Only 8 wins above .500 (56% winning percentage) during his 5 years here. When Tech is leading after Q1 we have an 81% chance that we will win the game. When Tech is tied after Q1 we have a 50% chance of winning. When Tech trails after Q1 we have a 15% chance of winning.

    Very similar to the baseball team last year regularly not being able to score runs until the 6th inning or so just to make the score closer than the game actually was.

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    Re: Games decided by 7 points or less in the Skip Holtz era

    When we start looking for a new head coach we should look at K.C. Keeler, he's head coach at Sam Houston State. You look his record on their web site . I do not want to train a head coach. Just looking ahead, I am not ready to say Skip needs to go but we need some staff changes imhop.

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    Re: Games decided by 7 points or less in the Skip Holtz era

    Quote Originally Posted by DogsWin View Post
    That's some interesting info. Only 8 wins above .500 (56% winning percentage) during his 5 years here. When Tech is leading after Q1 we have an 81% chance that we will win the game. When Tech is tied after Q1 we have a 50% chance of winning. When Tech trails after Q1 we have a 15% chance of winning.

    Very similar to the baseball team last year regularly not being able to score runs until the 6th inning or so just to make the score closer than the game actually was.
    So Holtz and company script the whole first quarter and are like wtf the rest of the game? It's a possibility.....

  10. #10
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    Re: Games decided by 7 points or less in the Skip Holtz era

    I'm not on the fire Skip Holtz bandwagon yet. He's earned a bad year with three good years, but next year there has to be MAJOR improvement. Finch needs to be fired at the end of the year no matter what, but if he didn't fire Baker, I don't see it happening. Holtz conservative approach is going to continue to cost us games in the future. I swear I believe he is the reincarnation of George McClellan.

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    Re: Games decided by 7 points or less in the Skip Holtz era

    Quote Originally Posted by SicemDawgz View Post
    I swear I believe he is the reincarnation of George McClellan.
    That's a hell-ova good analogy. That dude could have ended the Civil War when he was on the peninsula.

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    Re: Games decided by 7 points or less in the Skip Holtz era

    It's the lack of audacity that puzzles me. The stats on these close losses say a lot about this lack of audacity. I hate it for our athletes.

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    Re: Games decided by 7 points or less in the Skip Holtz era

    We celebrated Dooley when he went for 2 against Hawaii. At least many of us did. I think most of us would be more willing to accept any outcome of a game provided that our team and coach leave the field having shot all their bullets.

  14. #14
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    Re: Games decided by 7 points or less in the Skip Holtz era

    Quote Originally Posted by techman05 View Post
    We celebrated Dooley when he went for 2 against Hawaii. At least many of us did. I think most of us would be more willing to accept any outcome of a game provided that our team and coach leave the field having shot all their bullets.
    Skip leaves with a full chamber wondering why he's full of holes

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    Re: Games decided by 7 points or less in the Skip Holtz era

    No balls.

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