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Thread: Is a 4 seed possible

  1. #1
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    Is a 4 seed possible

    We all know that the route to a conference title is easier with a top 4 seed. We really screwed up on our Florida trip and the early Southern Miss loss, but we are playing in top form lately, except for the Charlotte loss. It is going to be VERY tough now to get a top 4 seed, but it is possible. We will need to pull off a magical road win at UAB and at Rice in order to do it, but it is possible. Here are the standings as of 2/20/18:





    If we beat Rice and UAB, we will end at 10-6 in conference. It will give Rice and UAB another loss, as well.

    We need Rice to have 2 more losses. We will own the tie breaker and we would be one of those two losses. They still have Marshall, UTSA, and North Texas. Only UTSA is on the road. Any of those would be an upset, but I think North Texas might have a chance at it.

    To jump Charlotte, Charlotte would need 3 more losses. I don't see that happening, but they still have WKU, MTSU, ODU, and FAU. It is possible, but not likely. WKU should beat them and, possibly, MTSU. That would end their regular season at 10-6, but they would have the tie-breaker over us.

    UAB still has MTSU, us, North Texas, and UTSA. They could fall to MTSU and we would need to beat them. If that happens, we will be tied with them. Overall record would favor them, though, and we split the regular season. They will probably be #2.

    We will jump MTSU, if we win out. No way are they going undefeated with their schedule that is left.

    WKU is going to be #1 barring a couple of major upsets.

    SO, we have to hope that Charlotte and Rice drop some to upsets and we win our last two on the road. That is our only chance to get in at #4.

    I did this while taking a break from work, so please correct any mistakes.

    Thank Goodness the tournament is not on anyone's home court!!!!!! Even at a 5 seed, we could do very well.

  2. #2
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    Re: Is a 4 seed possible

    So, how does this Lady Techster team go from losing to USM by 15 points in Hattiesburg on 1/11, to winning by 32 over USM in Ruston 36 days later?

    With an erratic slate like that, this team could win it all at CUSA tournament time. Or be sent home on the first day.

  3. #3
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    Re: Is a 4 seed possible

    Quote Originally Posted by HogDawg View Post
    So, how does this Lady Techster team go from losing to USM by 15 points in Hattiesburg on 1/11, to winning by 32 over USM in Ruston 36 days later?

    With an erratic slate like that, this team could win it all at CUSA tournament time. Or be sent home on the first day.
    They can absolutely win it all with consistent performances more like Rice and USM. And lose the first day with performances like Charlotte.

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    Re: Is a 4 seed possible

    Totally agree! I hope they play with some fire every single game! We still have two extremely tough ones on the road ahead.

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    Re: Is a 4 seed possible

    I do have to say that the earlier Southern Miss loss at Southern Miss isn't as strange as the FAU and FIU losses. Southern Miss beat UAB and MTSU on the road, then turn around and lose to teams like ODU and Marshall in Hattiesburg.... They are like us with up and down play.

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    Re: Is a 4 seed possible

    I am very disappointed in this late-season, inconsistent play of the Techsters. Every team, in every sport, at every level, is constrained in large part by its talent level. But the one thing that always hold true is good coaching. Well-coached teams are consistent and max out that "constrained" success. This year is not over yet...in fact the most important part of the season is still ahead. So, the Techsters still have an opportunity to do something special. And, I believe in Brooke as her track record has been for her teams to peak at the most crucial times. TWICE she took a hopefully mediocre NSU team into the NCAA's. Yeah, she accomplished that by winning the Southland Conference tourney, but NSU had been only moderately successful....kind of middle of the pack...during regular season conference play, and then they dispatched the best teams in the league, night after night in the tourney.

    BUT! one could see the coming storm because her NSU team was visibly, obviously getting better the last few weeks of the regular season. For instance, they lost badly at home to Central Arkansas in early January, like by 20+ points, it was ugly! Then at the end of February, her team beat UCA on the road. Everyone could see that that NSU team was becoming a very good team. They entered the conference tourney as a #6 seed or something like that, but quietly many were predicting they would win it. And, they did.

    I don't see that with this Techster team. Yes, the team has gotten better since November, but so too has other teams in the conference. We have not made up ground and surpassed some of the better teams in the conference. I am not busting with confidence we're gonna see something epic in Frisco. But, I still give Brooke the benefit of the doubt. I will not be totally surprised if we're dancing in March. (just pleasantly surprised)

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    Re: Is a 4 seed possible

    Quote Originally Posted by dawg80 View Post
    I am very disappointed in this late-season, inconsistent play of the Techsters. Every team, in every sport, at every level, is constrained in large part by its talent level. But the one thing that always hold true is good coaching. Well-coached teams are consistent and max out that "constrained" success. This year is not over yet...in fact the most important part of the season is still ahead. So, the Techsters still have an opportunity to do something special. And, I believe in Brooke as her track record has been for her teams to peak at the most crucial times. TWICE she took a hopefully mediocre NSU team into the NCAA's. Yeah, she accomplished that by winning the Southland Conference tourney, but NSU had been only moderately successful....kind of middle of the pack...during regular season conference play, and then they dispatched the best teams in the league, night after night in the tourney.

    BUT! one could see the coming storm because her NSU team was visibly, obviously getting better the last few weeks of the regular season. For instance, they lost badly at home to Central Arkansas in early January, like by 20+ points, it was ugly! Then at the end of February, her team beat UCA on the road. Everyone could see that that NSU team was becoming a very good team. They entered the conference tourney as a #6 seed or something like that, but quietly many were predicting they would win it. And, they did.

    I don't see that with this Techster team. Yes, the team has gotten better since November, but so too has other teams in the conference. We have not made up ground and surpassed some of the better teams in the conference. I am not busting with confidence we're gonna see something epic in Frisco. But, I still give Brooke the benefit of the doubt. I will not be totally surprised if we're dancing in March. (just pleasantly surprised)
    I would be extremely surprised to see us dancing in the NCAA this year. I haven't lost hope, but this team hasn't shown me they can play consistently yet. I hope with all these young players, we will at the top of the conference next year.

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    Re: Is a 4 seed possible

    I will be surprised and more hopeful come tourney time should we go 2-0 in the last 2 games!
    As BIG of a Techster FAN as I am, I just don't see it happening!
    But, Any thing can happen! Go Techsters!

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    Re: Is a 4 seed possible

    Middle Tennessee lost last night. That moves us up to #5 for right now. We have to win our last two - plus, Rice needs to drop a couple (one to us) and it wouldn't hurt for Middle and Charlotte to drop a couple. Charlotte is on a roll, but they still have WKU left. Still a hard climb, but possible to get that 4 seed just with winning out and Rice losing one more in addition to us.

    Sure wish we had that Florida road trip back! We would have been #3 right now without the FU road trip....

    Regardless, if we win the next two at UAB and Rice, we will be the ones on a roll come tournament time - even if we have to play an extra game as a 5 seed.

  10. #10
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    Re: Is a 4 seed possible

    Charlotte lost to WKU last night. Our best bet is for Rice to lose a couple of more times, though. Charlotte has 3 games left against MTSU (we want Charlotte to win that one), FAU, and ODU. All three are at Charlotte. They will most likely be a 3 seed.

    MTSU is in 6th place right now, but with the same number of losses as us in conference. They have Charlotte and ODU left. I wouldn't mind ODU pulling off an upset, but it isn't necessary.

    Rice has UTSA in San Antonio (we need UTSA to pull out an upset in that one), us, and North Texas left. Rice is still 2 games ahead of us. We need to beat them and them to lose one of their other two. That would knot us up tied for 4th and we would have the tie breaker.

    We HAVE to win today at UAB and next week at Rice in order to have a fighting chance for a 4 seed.

    WKU and UAB are tied for 1st place and I don't think anyone is close enough to knock them down from #1 and #2 going into the tournament.

    My prediction:
    1. WKU
    2. UAB
    3. Charlotte
    4. Rice
    5. Louisiana Tech
    6. MTSU

    My HOPE!!!!
    1. WKU
    2. UAB
    3. Charlotte
    4. Louisiana Tech
    5. Rice
    6. MTSU

    All we can do right now is win our last two on the road. The rest will depend on some upsets to pull us up to a #4. Like I stated above, though - if we win these last 2, we will be feared going into the tournament as a 4 or 5. Just would like to not have to play the extra game.

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    Re: Is a 4 seed possible

    Well MTSU sqeaked out a Win over Charlott today! we should still have the tie breaker over them right?

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    Re: Is a 4 seed possible

    Quote Originally Posted by BlindDog View Post
    Well MTSU sqeaked out a Win over Charlott today! we should still have the tie breaker over them right?
    Yeah, we should have the tie breaker over MTSU. We beat them and our overall record is better, so we are in good shape with them. UTSA is ahead of Rice right now in the first quarter. If UTSA wins, we will take over 4th over Rice, if we win this Thursday against them. UTSA and Rice still have a ways to go in this game, though.

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    Re: Is a 4 seed possible

    UTSA is up 20-9 over Rice at the end of the first quarter... Go Road Runners!

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    Re: Is a 4 seed possible

    Halftime: UTSA 32 Rice 23.... Keep it going UTSA!

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    Re: Is a 4 seed possible

    Here are the current standings for the top 6 as of right now....
    WKU 12-2
    UAB 11-3
    Rice 9-4
    Louisiana Tech 9-6
    Middle Tennessee 9-6
    Charlotte 8-6


    If Rice loses and we beat them again Thursday, there is a possibility of a 3 seed, if I am seeing everything clearly. My bet is on a 4 seed, though. Charlotte would have the tie breaker over us, since they beat us. MTSU would not and Rice would not.

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