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Thread: Down the Stretch

  1. #1
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    Down the Stretch

    9 games left, sitting in 2nd

    http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2018...Conference-USA

    6 home games vs. MTSU and ODU, both at or near the bottom, and 3 games at USM. Even given it's baseball, I don't think it's unreasonable to want (expect) us to go 6-0 at home. Of course, ODU seems to hold a curse on us (gris-gris) in all sports. As for USM, I HOPE....{heavy sigh}....our guys will attack that series as if a championship is on the line. Oh wait....it is!!!

    Would very much like to be in Biloxi. I like attending tourneys like this. It's fun to watch other teams play, and how those results affect your team's position in the tourney. Baseball is perfect for such tourneys.

    Go Dawgs! Bring home the trophies.

  2. #2
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    I don't believe we have the pitching to go 6-0 at home. We struggle on Friday now and our relievers are not shutting down. I'll take one win at USM.

    Still hoping for a rain out next week in the PC game.
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Even if we go 10-0 on last 10 games, we will need to win tourney to go post season. We don't have enough big W's...
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Need to move Leal to Sunday starter and move Robbins and Bailey to Friday and Saturday. I know that makes all three starters lefties but Miller hasnt had a good outing in a month. Bring him in for longer middle relief and to be 4th starter. We CAN sweep MT if we get our offense going all weekend. We then need to win the next two series which should put us in first or tied for first with the head to head over USM. Tall order, I know but if we can some how win the regular season and go deep in tourney we just might fingers crossed get an at-large. The RPI of our league really hurt this year's chances of getting (3) teams in the tourney. OR we can just win out and win the league !!

  5. #5
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Quote Originally Posted by BruceWillisDawg View Post
    Need to move Leal to Sunday starter and move Robbins and Bailey to Friday and Saturday. I know that makes all three starters lefties but Miller hasnt had a good outing in a month. Bring him in for longer middle relief and to be 4th starter. We CAN sweep MT if we get our offense going all weekend. We then need to win the next two series which should put us in first or tied for first with the head to head over USM. Tall order, I know but if we can some how win the regular season and go deep in tourney we just might fingers crossed get an at-large. The RPI of our league really hurt this year's chances of getting (3) teams in the tourney. OR we can just win out and win the league !!
    Leal didn't throw this weekend and there is no more mid week game for us - I think I would just move Leal to Friday so I don't throw Robbins and Bailey off their normal schedules.
    Leal + Miller combo for Friday is much stronger than Miller + Logan, I guess.
    Our Saturday and Sunday pitching are fine so far.

  6. #6
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Quote Originally Posted by latech View Post
    Leal didn't throw this weekend and there is no more mid week game for us - I think I would just move Leal to Friday so I don't throw Robbins and Bailey off their normal schedules.
    Leal + Miller combo for Friday is much stronger than Miller + Logan, I guess.
    Our Saturday and Sunday pitching are fine so far.
    We play at Grambling next week

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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Quote Originally Posted by Rooster View Post
    Even if we go 10-0 on last 10 games, we will need to win tourney to go post season. We don't have enough big W's...
    No we don't -

    Get 8 more wins and then two or three in the tourney and I think we will be a 3 seed

    RPI will probably be mid 40's to low 40's if we do that
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  8. #8
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Quote Originally Posted by PawDawg View Post
    I don't believe we have the pitching to go 6-0 at home. We struggle on Friday now and our relievers are not shutting down. I'll take one win at USM.

    Still hoping for a rain out next week in the PC game.

    Come on, you know you are excited to play the G-men.

  9. #9
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Quote Originally Posted by sportdawg View Post
    We play at Grambling next week
    Thanks for the info - I didn't know we are going to make up for the rained off game.
    Then the real question: do we really need to use Leal against Grambling?

  10. #10
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Just give them the "Tigers" share of the gate receipts and cancel that game
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  11. #11
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwayne From Minden View Post
    No we don't -

    Get 8 more wins and then two or three in the tourney and I think we will be a 3 seed

    RPI will probably be mid 40's to low 40's if we do that
    Gotta win the USM series (and obviously the other 2), and we have a chance. A regular season C-USA title should carry some weight with the selection committee. Throw in a marquee Top 50 series win at USM, 2-1 Frisco Classic, and a Top 50 RPI, we are definitely in the discussion.

    Again, Burroughs will regret not replacing the Grambling rain-out with a Top 50 RPI road game. Poor decision just like last year not trying to replace our snow-out and chicken-out. Most likely we are on the wrong side of the bubble... again.

    BTW, to those keeping an eye on Warren Nolan's Predicted RPI or treating it like the Bible, please ignore it. It's a really bad tool. It assumes every favored team wins every game instead of using win probabilities. Every series is a predicted sweep by the favored team. It's been predicting USM to win out all season long. Very poor predictor at ~70%. Using win probabilities the vast majority of series would be predicted 2-1 or 1-2.
    Last edited by Dawg06; 05-01-2018 at 12:20 AM.

  12. #12
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwayne From Minden View Post
    No we don't -

    Get 8 more wins and then two or three in the tourney and I think we will be a 3 seed

    RPI will probably be mid 40's to low 40's if we do that
    Predicted RPI from warrennolan.com is 61 if Tech goes 7-3 and gets swept at USM. Add about 3-4 RPI positions for each win at USM and drop that many for any other regular season losses.

    If Tech doesn't win the tournament or get to the finals that would be two more losses. Even a 3-2 record in Biloxi would basically be an RPI wash and would not gain Tech more than about 3-4 positions at most.

    Just don't see Tech breaking 50 in RPI if it doesn't get the automatic bid unless it can win the series in Hattiesburg and sweep the rest of the regular season.

    A mid-40s RPI is in bubble territory at best considering how few Top 50 and Top 100 RPI games Tech has played compared to teams it would be compared with for an at-large bid.

    And it's one thing to not play the road game at Grambling. Something else entirely to schedule any replacement game, much less making it a Top 50 game.
    Last edited by FriscoDawg; 05-01-2018 at 01:15 AM.

  13. #13
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    When is the last time Tech won the auto-bid, in ANY SPORT?! I think it was the Techsters under Spoon winning the WAC tourney, some 10-12 years ago. Or, maybe we could say the football team with its WAC conference title in 2011, earned a trip to the Poinsettia Bowl. Regardless, it's not something we have excelled at recently.

    Win it all in Biloxi. Do it on the field, and leave nothing to chance.

  14. #14
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Lady Techster Softball won CUSA championship and auto bid in 2017, Men's Golf in 2016, Spoon's Techster team did so in 2010 and the Softball Team also did so in 2008 winning the WAC championship. I may have missed some others.
    Quote Originally Posted by dawg80 View Post
    When is the last time Tech won the auto-bid, in ANY SPORT?! I think it was the Techsters under Spoon winning the WAC tourney, some 10-12 years ago. Or, maybe we could say the football team with its WAC conference title in 2011, earned a trip to the Poinsettia Bowl. Regardless, it's not something we have excelled at recently.

    Win it all in Biloxi. Do it on the field, and leave nothing to chance.

  15. #15
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Quote Originally Posted by Dawg06 View Post
    BTW, to those keeping an eye on Warren Nolan's Predicted RPI or treating it like the Bible, please ignore it. It's a really bad tool. It assumes every favored team wins every game instead of using win probabilities. Every series is a predicted sweep by the favored team. It's been predicting USM to win out all season long. Very poor predictor at ~70%. Using win probabilities the vast majority of series would be predicted 2-1 or 1-2.
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