Down the Stretch

[dawg80]

9 games left, sitting in 2nd

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2018...Conference-USA

6 home games vs. MTSU and ODU, both at or near the bottom, and 3 games at USM. Even given it's baseball, I don't think it's unreasonable to want (expect) us to go 6-0 at home. Of course, ODU seems to hold a curse on us (gris-gris) in all sports. As for USM, I HOPE....{heavy sigh}....our guys will attack that series as if a championship is on the line. Oh wait....it is!!!

Would very much like to be in Biloxi. I like attending tourneys like this. It's fun to watch other teams play, and how those results affect your team's position in the tourney. Baseball is perfect for such tourneys.

Go Dawgs! Bring home the trophies.

[PawDawg]

I don't believe we have the pitching to go 6-0 at home. We struggle on Friday now and our relievers are not shutting down. I'll take one win at USM.

Still hoping for a rain out next week in the PC game.

[Rooster]

Even if we go 10-0 on last 10 games, we will need to win tourney to go post season. We don't have enough big W's...

[BruceWillisDawg]

Need to move Leal to Sunday starter and move Robbins and Bailey to Friday and Saturday. I know that makes all three starters lefties but Miller hasnt had a good outing in a month. Bring him in for longer middle relief and to be 4th starter. We CAN sweep MT if we get our offense going all weekend. We then need to win the next two series which should put us in first or tied for first with the head to head over USM. Tall order, I know but if we can some how win the regular season and go deep in tourney we just might fingers crossed get an at-large. The RPI of our league really hurt this year's chances of getting (3) teams in the tourney. OR we can just win out and win the league !!

[latech]

Need to move Leal to Sunday starter and move Robbins and Bailey to Friday and Saturday. I know that makes all three starters lefties but Miller hasnt had a good outing in a month. Bring him in for longer middle relief and to be 4th starter. We CAN sweep MT if we get our offense going all weekend. We then need to win the next two series which should put us in first or tied for first with the head to head over USM. Tall order, I know but if we can some how win the regular season and go deep in tourney we just might fingers crossed get an at-large. The RPI of our league really hurt this year's chances of getting (3) teams in the tourney. OR we can just win out and win the league !!

Leal didn't throw this weekend and there is no more mid week game for us - I think I would just move Leal to Friday so I don't throw Robbins and Bailey off their normal schedules.
Leal + Miller combo for Friday is much stronger than Miller + Logan, I guess.
Our Saturday and Sunday pitching are fine so far.

[Dwayne From Minden]

Even if we go 10-0 on last 10 games, we will need to win tourney to go post season. We don't have enough big W's...

No we don't -

Get 8 more wins and then two or three in the tourney and I think we will be a 3 seed

RPI will probably be mid 40's to low 40's if we do that

[Dawg06]

No we don't -

Get 8 more wins and then two or three in the tourney and I think we will be a 3 seed

RPI will probably be mid 40's to low 40's if we do that

Gotta win the USM series (and obviously the other 2), and we have a chance. A regular season C-USA title should carry some weight with the selection committee. Throw in a marquee Top 50 series win at USM, 2-1 Frisco Classic, and a Top 50 RPI, we are definitely in the discussion.

Again, Burroughs will regret not replacing the Grambling rain-out with a Top 50 RPI road game. Poor decision just like last year not trying to replace our snow-out and chicken-out. Most likely we are on the wrong side of the bubble... again.

BTW, to those keeping an eye on Warren Nolan's Predicted RPI or treating it like the Bible, please ignore it. It's a really bad tool. It assumes every favored team wins every game instead of using win probabilities. Every series is a predicted sweep by the favored team. It's been predicting USM to win out all season long. Very poor predictor at ~70%. Using win probabilities the vast majority of series would be predicted 2-1 or 1-2.

[Dwayne From Minden]

BTW, to those keeping an eye on Warren Nolan's Predicted RPI or treating it like the Bible, please ignore it. It's a really bad tool. It assumes every favored team wins every game instead of using win probabilities. Every series is a predicted sweep by the favored team. It's been predicting USM to win out all season long. Very poor predictor at ~70%. Using win probabilities the vast majority of series would be predicted 2-1 or 1-2.

THIS

[Dwayne From Minden]

BTW, to those keeping an eye on Warren Nolan's Predicted RPI or treating it like the Bible, please ignore it. It's a really bad tool. It assumes every favored team wins every game instead of using win probabilities. Every series is a predicted sweep by the favored team. It's been predicting USM to win out all season long. Very poor predictor at ~70%. Using win probabilities the vast majority of series would be predicted 2-1 or 1-2.

THIS

[FriscoDawg]

No we don't -

Get 8 more wins and then two or three in the tourney and I think we will be a 3 seed

RPI will probably be mid 40's to low 40's if we do that

Predicted RPI from warrennolan.com is 61 if Tech goes 7-3 and gets swept at USM. Add about 3-4 RPI positions for each win at USM and drop that many for any other regular season losses.

If Tech doesn't win the tournament or get to the finals that would be two more losses. Even a 3-2 record in Biloxi would basically be an RPI wash and would not gain Tech more than about 3-4 positions at most.

Just don't see Tech breaking 50 in RPI if it doesn't get the automatic bid unless it can win the series in Hattiesburg and sweep the rest of the regular season.

A mid-40s RPI is in bubble territory at best considering how few Top 50 and Top 100 RPI games Tech has played compared to teams it would be compared with for an at-large bid.

And it's one thing to not play the road game at Grambling. Something else entirely to schedule any replacement game, much less making it a Top 50 game.

[Dwayne From Minden]

Predicted RPI from warrennolan.com is 61 if Tech goes 7-3 and gets swept at USM. Add about 3-4 RPI positions for each win at USM and drop that many for any other regular season losses.

If Tech doesn't win the tournament or get to the finals that would be two more losses. Even a 3-2 record in Biloxi would basically be an RPI wash and would not gain Tech more than about 3-4 positions at most.

Just don't see Tech breaking 50 in RPI if it doesn't get the automatic bid unless it can win the series in Hattiesburg and sweep the rest of the regular season.

A mid-40s RPI is in bubble territory at best considering how few Top 50 and Top 100 RPI games Tech has played compared to teams it would be compared with for an at-large bid.

And it's one thing to not play the road game at Grambling. Something else entirely to schedule any replacement game, much less making it a Top 50 game.

The predictor tool on that is USELSS -

Take care of business at home and go and try to take 2 of 3 at USM - but atleast get one

Do that and we are probably regular season champs and the #1 seed

Then win as many as we can in the tourney -

That's all we can ask - can't help that our leagues PRI is 11th this year instead of the normal 6 through 8

The Grambling game is an after thought - the losses at HOME to UALR, NWSt, Charlotte and SUIE are the killers

[PawDawg]

The Grambling game is an after thought - the losses at HOME to UALR, NWSt, Charlotte and SUIE are the killers

nobody is saying those losses did not hurt. What we are saying is we had an out on playing a game that will hurt us but we choose to play it anyway in the name of being PC over doing what is best for the program.

[FriscoDawg]

The predictor tool on that is USELSS -

Take care of business at home and go and try to take 2 of 3 at USM - but atleast get one

Do that and we are probably regular season champs and the #1 seed

Then win as many as we can in the tourney -

That's all we can ask - can't help that our leagues PRI is 11th this year instead of the normal 6 through 8

The Grambling game is an after thought - the losses at HOME to UALR, NWSt, Charlotte and SUIE are the killers

At least the predicted RPI at warrennolan is based on actual RPI calculations instead of pure opinion. Of course there will be changes in the predicted calculations since probably at least 20-25% of the results won't happen as predicted. That is why I look at both the current RPI and projected RPI after practically every Tech game. The predicted rankings get more accurate as they become more heavily weighted toward actual results of games played and less toward results of games yet to be played.

Losing two games at USM would almost certainly result in at least a small net loss in RPI points for that weekend. Winning 2 of 3 would result in a nice gain. And USM would have to lose one more game than Tech in the other six conference games left for Tech to be in position to finish #1 if Tech only wins 2 of 3 in Hattiesburg.

After the nightmare 3-7 midweek that C-USA just finished, it is barely hanging on to #11 in conference RPI. And only USM at #41 is now in the predicted RPI Top 45 (FAU is at #50). Even being a multi-bid league is now no sure thing, and getting more than 2 teams in is much less likely than even a week ago.

I totally agree that Tech wouldn't be in this outside-looking in position if it had won at least three of those four listed home games.

[sportdawg]

Leal didn't throw this weekend and there is no more mid week game for us - I think I would just move Leal to Friday so I don't throw Robbins and Bailey off their normal schedules.
Leal + Miller combo for Friday is much stronger than Miller + Logan, I guess.
Our Saturday and Sunday pitching are fine so far.

We play at Grambling next week

[latech]

We play at Grambling next week

Thanks for the info - I didn't know we are going to make up for the rained off game.
Then the real question: do we really need to use Leal against Grambling?