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Thread: Down the Stretch

  1. #16
    Administrator & 2006 Men's Progressive Bracket Champion Dwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond repute Dwayne From Minden's Avatar
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Quote Originally Posted by Dawg06 View Post
    BTW, to those keeping an eye on Warren Nolan's Predicted RPI or treating it like the Bible, please ignore it. It's a really bad tool. It assumes every favored team wins every game instead of using win probabilities. Every series is a predicted sweep by the favored team. It's been predicting USM to win out all season long. Very poor predictor at ~70%. Using win probabilities the vast majority of series would be predicted 2-1 or 1-2.
    THIS
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  2. #17
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Quote Originally Posted by FriscoDawg View Post
    Predicted RPI from warrennolan.com is 61 if Tech goes 7-3 and gets swept at USM. Add about 3-4 RPI positions for each win at USM and drop that many for any other regular season losses.

    If Tech doesn't win the tournament or get to the finals that would be two more losses. Even a 3-2 record in Biloxi would basically be an RPI wash and would not gain Tech more than about 3-4 positions at most.

    Just don't see Tech breaking 50 in RPI if it doesn't get the automatic bid unless it can win the series in Hattiesburg and sweep the rest of the regular season.

    A mid-40s RPI is in bubble territory at best considering how few Top 50 and Top 100 RPI games Tech has played compared to teams it would be compared with for an at-large bid.

    And it's one thing to not play the road game at Grambling. Something else entirely to schedule any replacement game, much less making it a Top 50 game.
    The predictor tool on that is USELSS -

    Take care of business at home and go and try to take 2 of 3 at USM - but atleast get one

    Do that and we are probably regular season champs and the #1 seed

    Then win as many as we can in the tourney -

    That's all we can ask - can't help that our leagues PRI is 11th this year instead of the normal 6 through 8

    The Grambling game is an after thought - the losses at HOME to UALR, NWSt, Charlotte and SUIE are the killers
    ''Don't be a bad dagh..."

  3. #18
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwayne From Minden View Post



    The Grambling game is an after thought - the losses at HOME to UALR, NWSt, Charlotte and SUIE are the killers
    nobody is saying those losses did not hurt. What we are saying is we had an out on playing a game that will hurt us but we choose to play it anyway in the name of being PC over doing what is best for the program.
    "eye fo an eye and toof fo a toof" - Idiot in Missouri

  4. #19
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    With our conference RPI down this year we just need to win out - tourney and ALL! Remove all doubt- go Dawgs!

  5. #20
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Quote Originally Posted by ACSlatech1994 View Post
    Lady Techster Softball won CUSA championship and auto bid in 2017, Men's Golf in 2016, Spoon's Techster team did so in 2010 and the Softball Team also did so in 2008 winning the WAC championship. I may have missed some others.
    All right then!

    I was worried over nothing....

  6. #21
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwayne From Minden View Post
    The predictor tool on that is USELSS -

    Take care of business at home and go and try to take 2 of 3 at USM - but atleast get one

    Do that and we are probably regular season champs and the #1 seed

    Then win as many as we can in the tourney -

    That's all we can ask - can't help that our leagues PRI is 11th this year instead of the normal 6 through 8

    The Grambling game is an after thought - the losses at HOME to UALR, NWSt, Charlotte and SUIE are the killers
    At least the predicted RPI at warrennolan is based on actual RPI calculations instead of pure opinion. Of course there will be changes in the predicted calculations since probably at least 20-25% of the results won't happen as predicted. That is why I look at both the current RPI and projected RPI after practically every Tech game. The predicted rankings get more accurate as they become more heavily weighted toward actual results of games played and less toward results of games yet to be played.

    Losing two games at USM would almost certainly result in at least a small net loss in RPI points for that weekend. Winning 2 of 3 would result in a nice gain. And USM would have to lose one more game than Tech in the other six conference games left for Tech to be in position to finish #1 if Tech only wins 2 of 3 in Hattiesburg.

    After the nightmare 3-7 midweek that C-USA just finished, it is barely hanging on to #11 in conference RPI. And only USM at #41 is now in the predicted RPI Top 45 (FAU is at #50). Even being a multi-bid league is now no sure thing, and getting more than 2 teams in is much less likely than even a week ago.

    I totally agree that Tech wouldn't be in this outside-looking in position if it had won at least three of those four listed home games.

  7. #22
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Quote Originally Posted by FriscoDawg View Post
    At least the predicted RPI at warrennolan is based on actual RPI calculations instead of pure opinion. Of course there will be changes in the predicted calculations since probably at least 20-25% of the results won't happen as predicted. That is why I look at both the current RPI and projected RPI after practically every Tech game. The predicted rankings get more accurate as they become more heavily weighted toward actual results of games played and less toward results of games yet to be played.

    Losing two games at USM would almost certainly result in at least a small net loss in RPI points for that weekend. Winning 2 of 3 would result in a nice gain. And USM would have to lose one more game than Tech in the other six conference games left for Tech to be in position to finish #1 if Tech only wins 2 of 3 in Hattiesburg.

    After the nightmare 3-7 midweek that C-USA just finished, it is barely hanging on to #11 in conference RPI. And only USM at #41 is now in the predicted RPI Top 45 (FAU is at #50). Even being a multi-bid league is now no sure thing, and getting more than 2 teams in is much less likely than even a week ago.

    I totally agree that Tech wouldn't be in this outside-looking in position if it had won at least three of those four listed home games.
    I disagree with this - all he does is put in "chalk" predictions and as everyone knows nothing goes to "chalk" in baseball - we are down to basically single digit conference games remaining and it is no more accurate a predictor than it was 3 weeks ago - I love his site, but the predictor portion is useless

    The best part of his site is impact games and the rpi points separating the teams directly in front of you and directly behind you

    With a loss last weekend we were PREDICTED to lose 89 rpi points but it didn't happen

    With 3 series we control our own destiny for the regular season title -

    Just enjoy the ride and continue to win 2 of 3 and everything will be rosy in the end
    ''Don't be a bad dagh..."

  8. #23
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Yes. At this point we are already over achieving even though we have lost some games we should not have lost. We have not won any upsets since Frisco. Will he start Miller again tomorrow night?
    "eye fo an eye and toof fo a toof" - Idiot in Missouri

  9. #24
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    I think a change needs to be made, but do you really go with 3 lefties in the weekend starting rotation?
    ''Don't be a bad dagh..."

  10. #25
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwayne From Minden View Post
    I think a change needs to be made, but do you really go with 3 lefties in the weekend starting rotation?
    I don't think it matters as much as making a change on Friday. My guess is that he will start Miller again tomorrow. I think the best move he could make would be starting Bailey on Friday. We're to the point in the season now where we need to mix up anyway. He needs to find out who will be ready for Biloxi
    "eye fo an eye and toof fo a toof" - Idiot in Missouri

  11. #26
    Administrator & 2006 Men's Progressive Bracket Champion Dwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond reputeDwayne From Minden has a reputation beyond repute Dwayne From Minden's Avatar
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Quote Originally Posted by PawDawg View Post
    I don't think it matters as much as making a change on Friday. My guess is that he will start Miller again tomorrow. I think the best move he could make would be starting Bailey on Friday. We're to the point in the season now where we need to mix up anyway. He needs to find out who will be ready for Biloxi
    I agree
    ''Don't be a bad dagh..."

  12. #27
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Quote Originally Posted by PawDawg View Post
    I don't think it matters as much as making a change on Friday. My guess is that he will start Miller again tomorrow. I think the best move he could make would be starting Bailey on Friday. We're to the point in the season now where we need to mix up anyway. He needs to find out who will be ready for Biloxi
    Agreed.

  13. #28
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    JFW Diamond DOGS!

  14. #29
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Tech did just lose RPI for the entire weekend. 48 actual RPI points lost when a win tonight would have been just +8.

    Predicted RPI falls off the cliff to 72 immediately after the loss was factored in even though Tech is still predicted to finish 6-3.

  15. #30
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    Re: Down the Stretch

    Quote Originally Posted by FriscoDawg View Post
    Tech did just lose RPI for the entire weekend. 48 actual RPI points lost when a win tonight would have been just +8.

    Predicted RPI falls off the cliff to 72 immediately after the loss was factored in even though Tech is still predicted to finish 6-3.
    It appears Coach Insanity has marked down the next two Fridays as a loss, so go ahead and factor in the fo sho loss to ODU.

    At this rate a Grambling win on the road might boost our RPI.
    "eye fo an eye and toof fo a toof" - Idiot in Missouri

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