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  1. #16
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    Re: NATO

    Quote Originally Posted by Guisslapp View Post
    You don’t get to pick where the resources are located. By far, most of the proven natural gas reserves are located in Russia, Iran and Qatar.
    You are clueless. Germany and the rest of Europe gets to pick from whom and where they buy their energy resources. BUY AMERICAN and buy AMERICAN LNG!!

    This will be the reason that Russia will try to grab, unsuccessfully by military action, the huge gas fields off the coast of Israel.

  2. #17
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    Re: NATO

    Quote Originally Posted by Guisslapp View Post
    We keep bases in these countries because we would rather fight wars in foreign theaters than at home or in our backyard.
    Even if that is so, it doesn't change the fact that our nation has to fund those bases each year by borrowing money. We simply can't afford to defend Europe any longer, we've got to many welfare mouths to feed at home.

  3. #18
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    Re: NATO

    Quote Originally Posted by TYLERTECHSAS View Post
    You are clueless. Germany and the rest of Europe gets to pick from whom and where they buy their energy resources. BUY AMERICAN and buy AMERICAN LNG!!

    This will be the reason that Russia will try to grab, unsuccessfully by military action, the huge gas fields off the coast of Israel.
    What is the price of American LNG versus Russian natural gas delivered by pipeline in Germany? Why would you pay more for the exact same commodity? I thought you guys were capitalists.

  4. #19
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    Re: NATO

    Quote Originally Posted by brtransplant View Post
    Even if that is so, it doesn't change the fact that our nation has to fund those bases each year by borrowing money. We simply can't afford to defend Europe any longer, we've got to many welfare mouths to feed at home.
    Our bases are there to defend us. Would you rather fight Russia in Europe or on US soil?

  5. #20
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    Re: NATO

    I'd rather not fight Russia at all. Anywhere.

    But, why do offer only those choices? If we fight Russia, it will be on their soil as we kick their ass!

  6. #21
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    Re: NATO

    Quote Originally Posted by dawg80 View Post
    I'd rather not fight Russia at all. Anywhere.

    But, why do offer only those choices? If we fight Russia, it will be on their soil as we kick their ass!
    Having bases in Europe helps us do that.

  7. #22
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    Re: NATO

    Quote Originally Posted by Guisslapp View Post
    You don’t get to pick where the resources are located. By far, most of the proven natural gas reserves are located in Russia, Iran and Qatar.
    Quote Originally Posted by TYLERTECHSAS View Post
    You are clueless. Germany and the rest of Europe gets to pick from whom and where they buy their energy resources. BUY AMERICAN and buy AMERICAN LNG!!





    This will be the reason that Russia will try to grab, unsuccessfully by military action, the huge gas fields off the coast of Israel.
    Quote Originally Posted by Guisslapp View Post
    What is the price of American LNG versus Russian natural gas delivered by pipeline in Germany? Why would you pay more for the exact same commodity? I thought you guys were capitalists.
    Just to give you a flavor I linked various paragraphs from the article below. Obviously feel free to read the entire article. Keep in mind things are happening quick in 2018 per American LNG delivery to Europe.
    And Russian gas price per their new very expensive pipeline will probably be more expensive vs American LNG. Don't link to some article dated 2010 - 2016 stating it different as they will be way out of date.

    This is another reason Trump is pushing American LNG's besides Europe's own national security with Russia holding a gun to their heads.



    LNG Versus Russian Gas In Central And Eastern Europe: Playing Poker On A Continental Scale


    Baker InstituteContributori

    Aug 24, 2017, 08:00am


    The recent U.S. sanctions leveled against Russia, and Europe’s split reaction to those sanctions, reflect the ongoing struggle concerning energy security on the continent. Western European governments generally oppose the sanctions, as they would target the contentious Nord Stream 2 (NS2) project championed by the Russian and German governments, multinationals and German corporations. Western European countries generally accept the NS2 project as a way to access relatively cheap gas backed by large reserves. Conversely, many Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries welcomed the U.S.A.’s action against Russia because the region has been fighting NS2 based on the conviction that the pipeline would increase Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas and halt other diversification projects, most importantly developments in LNG that allow non-Russian gas to access the CEE. NS2 is often predicted to strengthen Russia’s monopoly and geopolitical power, particularly in the CEE.

    As a result, countries like Poland and Lithuania have invested in and are currently operating LNG import terminals. Both terminals have already accepted LNG imports from Qatar, Norway and, most recently, from the U.S. Other countries, including Estonia, Latvia and the Ukraine, have plans to invest in LNG or have undertaken other efforts that would help diversify their natural gas supply.
    But all these efforts are accompanied by a serious doubt that the push for LNG cannot be sustained long-term and will die out organically given the competitiveness of Russian gas. Whether piped via NS2 or other routes, Russian gas can be priced more cheaply than LNG, which, in addition to the domestic price of gas, includes the cost of liquefaction, ocean transportation, and regasification.


    There is a concern that the security premium that CEE countries might be willing to pay is not high enough to sustain the new investments in LNG.
    However, a recent CES article by Nathalie Hinchey entitled “The Impact of Securing Alternative Energy Sources on Russian-European Natural Gas Pricing”* sheds new light on the impact of LNG investments in the CEE. As opposed to many current publications, the article does not dwell on the importance of geopolitics, an element that is difficult to quantify and measure. Instead, it calculates the direct pricing benefits that CEE countries can incur from securing non-Russian gas suppliers; a phenomenon that is becoming increasingly more feasible as a result of LNG imports through floating storage and regasification units (FSRU). FSRUs are especially appealing as they can be used as LNG import terminals and are cheaper and more flexible than land based LNG import terminals. Further, they encounter less regulatory and permitting burdens.

    More specifically, the paper develops an economic model that demonstrates that the introduction of alternative natural gas suppliers into the CEE gas markets has altered the bargaining landscape between the CEE and Gazprom. The ability to procure non-Russian sourced gas from LNG cargoes has allowed the CEE to use LNG as a "credible threat" if Russian piped gas becomes too expensive. This essentially leads to lower prices for Russian gas and puts a ceiling on Russian piped gas with respect to internationally sourced LNG.


    The model does a good job predicting the price that Lithuania paid for natural gas imports from Russia in 2016 (after the FSRU LNG Terminal in Klaipeda opened its doors to imports),deviating in its prediction by only 0.38 Euros off the actual price that Lithuania paid Gazprom (25.6 vs. the actual price of 25.98 Euros/100kg). This lends credibility to the underlying thesis that diversification of options can lead to lower, more competitive prices. In 2014, prior to securing Norwegian LNG, Lithuania paid 48 Euros/100kg for Russian natural gas. At the same time, the model suggests that if Latvia decided to purchase only 20% of its natural gas supply from the Lithuanian FSRU Independence, the average price that it would pay for all its gas would decrease by an additional 11% to 21.59 Euros/kg, which amounts to 17,732,485 Euros in annual savings.
    Thus, there is a systemic relationship between a country’s ability to procure non-Russian gas and the price it pays for Russian gas: countries with a lesser dependence on Russian gas pay less for that gas.
    The results are intuitive. They also explain the differences in Gazprom pricing between its Western European and CEE customers. Western Europe’s dependence on Russian gas is far smaller than that of the CEE, as other sources of supply are readily available: domestic supplies as well as LNG, storage solutions and the ability to use reverse flows if temporary shortages emerge. On the other hand, CEE countries have been historically highly dependent on Russia, some as much as 100 percent, thereby giving Gazprom significant market power. As this relationship changes, so does the bargaining position between the CEE and Russia with respect to natural gas delivery, becoming more similar to that of Western Europe.
    This brings us back to the assessment of the viability of LNG imports into the CEE. Prices should not be taken at face value but assessed as part of the entire natural gas market within a country and possibly within the entire CEE region. There is a way to calculate directly how much diversification contributes to lower average prices and to what extent these lower prices justify investments in LNG, storage solutions or new pipeline interconnections, all of which would raise the level of competition thereby weakening Russia’s market power.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/thebake.../#1f7910222c3a

  8. #23
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    Re: NATO

    Quote Originally Posted by Guisslapp View Post
    Having bases in Europe helps us do that.
    Agreed. Just hope it doesn't come to that.

  9. #24
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    Re: NATO

    Quote Originally Posted by Guisslapp View Post
    Our bases are there to defend us. Would you rather fight Russia in Europe or on US soil?
    Really? US soil? It was 1000x easier for Germany to invade Russia during WW2 than it would be for Russia to invade the US mainland now....and we know how that turned out. This is not an invasion force they'd be capable of mustering with their puny economy and our geographic location. Now, they could likely come through the Mexican border unchecked......

    If Russia attacks us here (except for cyber attacks), it will be in the form of a missile loaded with really bad stuff, and such an attack would virtually assure their destruction.

    However....

    Just think what the world would look like today if the rush to get out of Iraq by the last admin was accompanied by an equal desire to establish a military base in the Northern Iraqi desert.

    Russia would have been, at the very least, very hesitant to engage in Syria's civil war with us being that close and Iran could have been checked at their own border. With their economic prosperity , the EU should be able to muster an army sufficient to keep the Russians at bay (Russia's GDP is only 20% of the EU's...and the EU's is actually a bit larger than our own). Every time we allow Russia to annex another country, however, they grow stronger and their economy gets bigger.

    I am glad Trump brought this up with the EU, but I wish he had done it behind closed doors. In diplomacy you have to give your opponent a chance to save face.

  10. #25
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    Re: NATO

    Quote Originally Posted by DawgyNWindow View Post

    In diplomacy you have to give your opponent a chance to save face.
    When was the last time that worked in our favor?
    "eye fo an eye and toof fo a toof" - Idiot in Missouri

  11. #26
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    Re: NATO

    Quote Originally Posted by PawDawg View Post
    When was the last time that worked in our favor?
    I have to be honest, I cannot think of one. I have been trying, however.

    Point taken.

  12. #27
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    Re: NATO

    Giving someone "an out" to save face works well in business negotiations. Learned that from the master negotiator himself. No, not Donald Trump, from Chester Karrass. Getting to the "win-win" scenario is the goal. It also helps, if you can pull it off, to have your "opponent" think it was his idea. Then you get real buy-in. I put opponent in quotes because if you can get to a true a "win-win" that person is no longer an opponent, but an ally.

  13. #28
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    Re: NATO

    Quote Originally Posted by dawg80 View Post
    Giving someone "an out" to save face works well in business negotiations. Learned that from the master negotiator himself. No, not Donald Trump, from Chester Karrass. Getting to the "win-win" scenario is the goal. It also helps, if you can pull it off, to have your "opponent" think it was his idea. Then you get real buy-in. I put opponent in quotes because if you can get to a true a "win-win" that person is no longer an opponent, but an ally.
    It is a necessity when negotiating with eastern businesses. Causing them to lose face is a big no no.

  14. #29
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    Re: NATO

    Quote Originally Posted by dawg80 View Post
    Giving someone "an out" to save face works well in business negotiations. Learned that from the master negotiator himself. No, not Donald Trump, from Chester Karrass. Getting to the "win-win" scenario is the goal. It also helps, if you can pull it off, to have your "opponent" think it was his idea. Then you get real buy-in. I put opponent in quotes because if you can get to a true a "win-win" that person is no longer an opponent, but an ally.
    Quote Originally Posted by Guisslapp View Post
    It is a necessity when negotiating with eastern businesses. Causing them to lose face is a big no no.
    I can get behind saving face and letting the other person look like they held their own. Getting into a slap fight with Putin over the election meddling doesn't do anyone any good. I don't have a problem with avoiding directly addressing the issue in the press conference. That is something that should be discussed away from the press. Same thing with KJU, no point in disrespecting him in public if we are trying to work with the guy to get rid of his nukes.

    Trump really mishandled the press conference though. "I blame both countries", " I don't see why they would". These were blunders and did nothing for us.

    Just say" The investigation is ongoing, President Putin assured me that it was not them and has offered to cooperate in our investigation. Hopefully the Mueller investigation will wrap up soon so we can begin to see what they have discovered."

    Leave it at that, or complain that the investigation is dragging on if you want to, but don't question the report that Russia meddled. That is clear to everyone and everyone knows why they would do it (hint the same reason they have always done it and the same reason we do it to other countries).
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  15. #30
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    Re: NATO

    He should have said "I didn't think it was appropriate for me to address the question of Russian meddling because it is being handled by an ongoing investigation being done by the special council. That said, the ongoing witch hunt initiated by the disgraced Peter Strzok has still found no collusion, because there was no collusion. "

    Then refuse to comment further because Mueller is handling the investigation.

    That would be fun to watch for a few days.

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