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  1. #106
    Champ Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2018

    Last Wk This Wk
    Sag Rk 81 89
    Sag Rat 66.16 64.20
    Pred W-L 9-3 9-3
    Pred W-L 0.750 0.750
    Home Adv 2.47 2.47
    OOC Rk 90 91
    Conf Rk 122 121
    Conf Opp Rk 130 130


    H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W%
    @ 140 USA 52.83 4.00 W 56.83 1.00
    197 SU 39.35 37.00 W 78.71 1.00
    @ 11 LSU 85.89 -17.00 L 68.89 0.00
    @ 50 UNT 74.36 2.00 W 76.36 1.00
    109 UAB 59.94 -21.00 L 41.51 0.00
    @ 149 UTSA 50.65 28.00 W 78.65 1.00
    185 UTEP 42.66 7.00 W 52.13 1.00
    @ 103 FAU 60.04 1.69 W 0.21 0.54
    @ 16 MSU 83.82 -22.09 L -0.88 0.00
    188 Rice 40.90 25.77 W -2.41 1.00
    @ 117 USM 57.55 4.18 W -1.77 0.60
    140 WKU 52.60 14.07 W -1.15 0.85


    In terms of overall game quality, this isn't even the worst we've played. Keep in mind that the Sagarin line for this game was nearly 26.

    Rk C-USA
    60 North Texas
    70 UAB
    87 Marshall
    89 Louisiana Tech
    100 Fla. International
    103 Florida Atlantic
    109 Middle Tennessee
    117 Southern Miss
    140 Western Kentucky
    145 Old Dominion
    153 Charlotte
    156 UTSA
    181 UTEP
    188 Rice


    Rice is improving! We better watch out.

  2. #107
    Champ Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2018

    Last Wk This Wk
    Sag Rk 89 87
    Sag Rat 64.20 64.77
    Pred W-L 9-3 9-3
    Pred W-L 0.750 0.750
    Home Adv 2.47 2.43
    OOC Rk 91 90
    Conf Rk 121 123
    Conf Opp Rk 130 132


    H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W%
    @ 140 USA 52.83 4.00 W 56.83 1.00
    197 SU 39.35 37.00 W 78.71 1.00
    @ 11 LSU 85.89 -17.00 L 68.89 0.00
    @ 50 UNT 74.36 2.00 W 76.36 1.00
    109 UAB 59.94 -21.00 L 41.51 0.00
    @ 149 UTSA 50.65 28.00 W 78.65 1.00
    185 UTEP 42.66 7.00 W 52.13 1.00
    @ 103 FAU 60.04 8.00 W 68.04 1.00
    @ 13 MSU 84.51 -22.17 L -0.08 0.00
    189 Rice 41.79 25.41 W -0.36 1.00
    @ 125 USM 56.40 5.94 W 1.76 0.65
    147 WKU 50.39 16.81 W 2.74 0.92


    Rk C-USA
    63 North Texas
    71 UAB
    87 Louisiana Tech
    90 Marshall
    99 Fla. International
    102 Middle Tennessee
    107 Florida Atlantic
    125 Southern Miss
    145 Charlotte
    147 Western Kentucky
    157 UTSA
    159 Old Dominion
    182 UTEP
    189 Rice

  3. #108
    Champ Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2018

    Good morning to everyone except Skip Holtz.

    Last Wk This Wk
    Sag Rk 87 94
    Sag Rat 64.77 63.18
    Pred W-L 9-3 9-3
    Pred W-L 0.750 0.750
    Home Adv 2.43 2.44
    OOC Rk 90 90
    Conf Rk 123 125
    Conf Opp Rk 132 134

    H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W%
    @ 140 USA 52.83 4.00 W 56.83 1.00
    197 SU 39.35 37.00 W 78.71 1.00
    @ 11 LSU 85.89 -17.00 L 68.89 0.00
    @ 50 UNT 74.36 2.00 W 76.36 1.00
    109 UAB 59.94 -21.00 L 41.51 0.00
    @ 149 UTSA 50.65 28.00 W 78.65 1.00
    185 UTEP 42.66 7.00 W 52.13 1.00
    @ 103 FAU 60.04 8.00 W 68.04 1.00
    @ 13 MSU 84.51 -42.00 L 42.51 0.00
    196 Rice 40.43 25.19 W -0.22 1.00
    @ 121 USM 57.24 5.10 W -0.84 0.63
    155 WKU 49.40 17.80 W 0.99 0.95

    Rk C-USA
    63 UAB
    65 North Texas
    93 Marshall
    94 Louisiana Tech
    96 Florida Atlantic
    102 Middle Tennessee
    111 Fla. International
    121 Southern Miss
    146 Charlotte
    155 Western Kentucky
    157 Old Dominion
    165 UTSA
    179 UTEP
    196 Rice

  4. #109
    Champ dawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond repute dawg80's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2018

    This ranking, us at 94, is all Division I schools, FCS & FBS? If so, how many schools is that? There's 132 in FBS, or something close to that.

  5. #110
    Champ Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by dawg80 View Post
    This ranking, us at 94, is all Division I schools, FCS & FBS? If so, how many schools is that? There's 132 in FBS, or something close to that.
    255. You will notice that all of our remaining opponents are near or below #130 (which, theoretically, is the lowest FBS), which will make the loss to USM sting more than usual.

  6. #111
    Champ dawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond repute dawg80's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dawg View Post
    255. You will notice that all of our remaining opponents are near or below #130 (which, theoretically, is the lowest FBS), which will make the loss to USM sting more than usual.
    I don't expect to beat USM.

    WKU concerns me. They are more like a 3-5 or 4-4 type CUSA team. Not very good, but not as bad as their record either. Eckels, their regular starter at QB, returned after suffering an early season injury. He looked okay at times, and not so good, vs. MTSU the other night. If he stays healthy he should be back in form by the time we play them. WKU also has a good defense.

    I expect to beat Rice, but it won't be a blowout like it should be. More like 31-20. Lackluster, "did enough not to lose" type of performance.

    In the bigger picture, how can anyone with an ounce of pride be satisfied with being ranked 94th?

  7. #112
    Champ Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by dawg80 View Post
    I don't expect to beat USM.

    WKU concerns me. They are more like a 3-5 or 4-4 type CUSA team. Not very good, but not as bad as their record either. Eckels, their regular starter at QB, returned after suffering an early season injury. He looked okay at times, and not so good, vs. MTSU the other night. If he stays healthy he should be back in form by the time we play them. WKU also has a good defense.

    I expect to beat Rice, but it won't be a blowout like it should be. More like 31-20. Lackluster, "did enough not to lose" type of performance.

    In the bigger picture, how can anyone with an ounce of pride be satisfied with being ranked 94th?
    Honestly, I'm not sure I expect to beat Rice. I think at the end of the game we might have more points than they do. But I don't expect to win, if that makes sense.

  8. #113
    Hunter Lee's Hero HogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond repute HogDawg's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dawg View Post
    Honestly, I'm not sure I expect to beat Rice. I think at the end of the game we might have more points than they do. But I don't expect to win, if that makes sense.
    If Rice plays LA Tech the way they did UNT, they will punish our QB. UNT's QB (Mason Fine) is at least 100 times more mobile than J'Mar, and they still got to him and did some physical damage. Better not sleep on Rice.

  9. #114
    Champ Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2018

    Last Wk This Wk
    Sag Rk 94 102
    Sag Rat 63.18 61.81
    Pred W-L 9-3 9-3
    Pred W-L 0.750 0.750
    Home Adv 2.44 2.41
    OOC Rk 90 90
    Conf Rk 125 125
    Conf Opp Rk 134 133

    H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W%
    @ 140 USA 52.83 4.00 W 56.83 1.00
    197 SU 39.35 37.00 W 78.71 1.00
    @ 11 LSU 85.89 -17.00 L 68.89 0.00
    @ 50 UNT 74.36 2.00 W 76.36 1.00
    109 UAB 59.94 -21.00 L 41.51 0.00
    @ 149 UTSA 50.65 28.00 W 78.65 1.00
    185 UTEP 42.66 7.00 W 52.13 1.00
    @ 103 FAU 60.04 8.00 W 68.04 1.00
    @ 13 MSU 84.51 -42.00 L 42.51 0.00
    196 Rice 40.43 15.00 W 57.84 1.00
    @ 115 USM 58.28 1.12 W -2.38 0.53
    156 WKU 49.80 14.42 W -1.80 0.86
    We only have a 53% chance to win the Rivalry in Dixie, with a -1.15 line. If we lose, we will lose any shot at a 10 win season. So, we will lose.
    Rk C-USA
    69 UAB
    76 North Texas
    91 Marshall
    94 Florida Atlantic
    99 Middle Tennessee
    102 Louisiana Tech
    106 Fla. International
    115 Southern Miss
    148 Old Dominion
    149 Charlotte
    156 Western Kentucky
    175 UTSA
    181 UTEP
    192 Rice

  10. #115
    Champ Dowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond repute Dowty's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2018

    Why are we ranked so far behind FAU and UNT?

  11. #116
    Champ Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Dowty View Post
    Why are we ranked so far behind FAU and UNT?
    I don't know specifics but we have played extremely poorly and not even come close to covering the spread on many of our games against very poorly rated opponents. I'm not sure about them but that would be my first guess.

  12. #117
    Champ Dowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond reputeDowty has a reputation beyond repute Dowty's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dawg View Post
    I don't know specifics but we have played extremely poorly and not even come close to covering the spread on many of our games against very poorly rated opponents. I'm not sure about them but that would be my first guess.
    I didn't know that how we performed against the spread had bearing on the rating system, but that would definitely help explain why we are ranked below teams that we've beaten. Thanks.

  13. #118
    Champ Tech52 is a name known to allTech52 is a name known to allTech52 is a name known to allTech52 is a name known to allTech52 is a name known to allTech52 is a name known to allTech52 is a name known to allTech52 is a name known to allTech52 is a name known to allTech52 is a name known to allTech52 is a name known to all Tech52's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Dowty View Post
    I didn't know that how we performed against the spread had bearing on the rating system, but that would definitely help explain why we are ranked below teams that we've beaten. Thanks.
    Tbf is it any worse than UNT not beating the spread on UTEP and then losing to ODU?

  14. #119
    Champ Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Dowty View Post
    I didn't know that how we performed against the spread had bearing on the rating system, but that would definitely help explain why we are ranked below teams that we've beaten. Thanks.
    Thats just my guess. But I suspect that's part of it. I track the "quality" of the games, essentially this is a measure of how well we match the spread. You want this all in the 80 range. Really good games or upsets will be higher (the Wichita State game for the Dunkin Dawgs was about 92). Whereas our games are usually in the 50-60 range, with a few in the 40s. That's bad.

  15. #120
    Champ Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2018

    Surprisingly, we didn't drop.

    Last Wk This Wk
    Sag Rk 102 102
    Sag Rat 61.81 61.61
    Pred W-L 9-3 8-4
    Pred W-L 0.750 0.667
    Home Adv 2.41 2.33
    OOC Rk 90 90
    Conf Rk 125 123
    Conf Opp Rk 133 132
    Average Q 62.15 61.70


    H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W%
    @ 140 USA 52.83 4.00 W 56.83 1.00
    197 SU 39.35 37.00 W 78.71 1.00
    @ 11 LSU 85.89 -17.00 L 68.89 0.00
    @ 50 UNT 74.36 2.00 W 76.36 1.00
    109 UAB 59.94 -21.00 L 41.51 0.00
    @ 149 UTSA 50.65 28.00 W 78.65 1.00
    185 UTEP 42.66 7.00 W 52.13 1.00
    @ 103 FAU 60.04 8.00 W 68.04 1.00
    @ 13 MSU 84.51 -42.00 L 42.51 0.00
    196 Rice 40.43 15.00 W 57.84 1.00
    @ 115 USM 58.28 -1.00 L 57.28 0.00
    151 WKU 51.21 12.73 W -1.69 0.82


    Rk C-USA
    73 UAB
    75 North Texas
    84 Marshall
    95 Florida Atlantic
    97 Middle Tennessee
    102 Louisiana Tech
    103 Fla. International
    110 Southern Miss
    137 Old Dominion
    149 Charlotte
    151 Western Kentucky
    175 UTSA
    183 UTEP
    185 Rice

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