Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2018

[Blue Dawg]

I don't know what everybody's so worried about. Thru 3 games, LSU is only averaging 333 yds per game on offense. That's sick low!

If people are worried about that, they're darn sure going to being worried when we go to Denton next week. UNT is averaging 504 yds per game.

I'm darn sure worried about every single game we have left. I guess I feel ok about UTEP and Rice...for now.

[Tech52]

I dont think the defense will be as bad off as some. They can pull it together.

[dawg80]

We really SHOULD run the table in our 4 remaining home games: UAB, UTEP, Rice, WKU

UAB is playing the best of those 4, right now, which ain't saying much. But I have a feeling our guys will remember last year. WKU is a tad better than their record, which is 0-3...so! but, they will get it together and be playing better by the end of the year. Given that is an 11am start on a November morning, this is our home WTF game in-the-making. Hopefully, Holtz and the fellows will decide not to have a home WTF game this year. That would be nice.

[rockdog]

I don't know what everybody's so worried about. Thru 3 games, LSU is only averaging 333 yds per game on offense. That's sick low!

If people are worried about that, they're darn sure going to being worried when we go to Denton next week. UNT is averaging 504 yds per game.

I agree, but LSU’s two opponents (Washington and Auburn) have good defense. I’m just more concerned with North Texas in general. LSU is meaningful as all games are, and we all know it’s LSU. I know I know. North Texas is the defending west champ. We gave them a win in Ruston last season. It’s the Cusa opener. They’re playing damn good football right now.

[dawg80]

LSU's opponents....Miami and Auburn

[Blue Dawg]

	Last Wk	This Wk
Sag Rk	85	84
Sag Rat	64.60	65.52
Pred W-L	8-4	9-3
Pred W-L	0.667	0.750
Home Adv	2.67	2.7
OOC Rk	89	91
Conf Rk	126	123
Conf Opp Rk	126	126

H/A	Rk	Team	Sag	Fav	W/L	+/-	Act	Quality	W%
@	140	USA	52.83	4.00			W	56.83	1.00
	197	SU	39.35	37.00			W	78.71	1.00
@	11	LSU	85.89	-17.00			L	68.89	0.00
@	50	UNT	74.36	-11.54	L	-2.37			0.21
	112	UAB	58.49	9.73	W	1.22			0.74
@	160	UTSA	49.11	13.71	W	2.15			0.84
	197	UTEP	40.07	28.15	W	1.72			1.00
@	96	FAU	62.08	0.74	W	1.19			0.52
@	16	MSU	84.33	-21.51	L	5.58			0.00
	167	Rice	47.77	20.45	W	1.41			1.00
@	114	USM	58.27	4.55	W	0.22			0.61
	109	WKU	59.26	8.96	W	-0.03			0.72

Sagarin bumps up to 9-3 for the first time this season. The biggest swing is that MSU line, which moved almost a whole touchdown in our favor.

Rk	C-USA
50	North Texas
84	Louisiana Tech
93	Marshall
94	Fla. International
96	Florida Atlantic
109	Western Kentucky
112	UAB
114	Southern Miss
116	Middle Tennessee
153	Old Dominion
160	UTSA
167	Rice
179	Charlotte
197	UTEP

Seriously, can CUSA not just drop UTSA/Rice/Charlotte/UTEP? We can keep ODU because they gave the conference a respected big win, something Holtz will never do.

[dawg80]

CUSA owns the Bottom 10 too, something the Belch used to control.

[PawDawg]

CUSA owns the Bottom 10 too, something the Belch used to control.

Yeah, but we aren't in it. We may only win 6 games, but as long as we are better than Northeast our people will be happy.

[glm47]

Yeah, but we aren't in it. We may only win 6 games, but as long as we are better than Northeast our people will be happy.

That’s the mindset that has held us back since 1988.

[dawg80]

Check the boxes. Oh wait, there is only one box:

Is Tech > ULM ?

If yes, please proceed to playing golf at Squire Creek.

If no, make up an excuse, then proceed to playing golf at Squire Creek.

[Dowty]

Check the boxes. Oh wait, there is only one box:

Is Tech > ULM ?

If yes, please proceed to playing golf at Squire Creek.

If no, make up an excuse, then proceed to playing golf at Squire Creek.

Played there for the first time last week. Excellent course.

[dawg80]

I need to work on my golf game...I used to be pretty good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNm5RZoL2Ro

[Dogsince65]

The position of QB is critical at all levels of football. It's true at the highest level, the NFL, and is certainly true at the next highest level, Division I FBS.

I watched a good bit of the Notre Dame-Vandy game yesterday, and this drives home the point. ND is loaded with 5-star talent across the board, but have a very mediocre QB. He drags the whole team down to a lower level. Vandy is mostly 3-star players, but they have a pretty good QB who is a gamer. Not great...good thing for ND too, because if he were a great QB Vandy walks away with the "W." As it was, Vandy was maxed out and got every iota of offense out of itself. ND stumbled and bumbled along, squandering opportunities to put the game away.

And I see this game after game...sometimes it is not a very good QB, just an average one who enjoys a great day. Regardless one can readily see the difference that good QB play makes. Florida State's QB absolutely sucks! I think it's comical he's so bad.

As for our guy....I said I would withhold final judgment until after the LSU game, his 18th career start. I know LSU has an awesome defense, loaded with talent. But Smith just needs to focus on his game, our offense. Take care of those things he CAN control...like his decision-making and his physical mechanics.

JMar had awesome game against LSU -- most passing yards against LSU than anyone for about 20 years (Ole Miss) -- 4-5 dropped passes in first quarter and INT of receiver hands-- I kept thinking Coach knew what he was doing ... I admit I had given up at times on our QB. we scored 21 points in a row against LSU --about 150 yards more than their guy. Gives me hope for the rest of year and who knows what 2019 with our guy....

I apologize for this post -- you posted before the game and withheld judgment -- I had the benefit of after game =

[dawg80]

I mentioned on another thread I saw some improvement in Smith. Primarily his stepping up into the pocket. That is huge! It's absolutely critical and necessary for a pocket passer, which Smith is. He was cool under pressure...again critical for a pocket passer.

The negatives that remain are his refusal to run when the play develops that way, and then he hook slides at the slightest approach of a defender. Did you see "old man" Brees yesterday!? He is the ultimate pocket passer and has the numbers/credentials that give him the right to make whatever decision he wants. But, with the game on the line, he scrambled and juked Poole! Brian Poole! one of the best, if not the best tackler in any NFL secondary and a guy with the reputation of being a hard-hitter. So...it's not asking too much for a youngish J'Mar Smith to take on tackler now and then.

The other negative for Smith is he has no touch on his passes. Every pass is a fastball. Smith is a "thrower", and needs to improve as a "quarterback."

[Tech52]

My biggest complaint about Smith is the running. There was a wide open lane multiple times Saturday and he only took one. Rattay needs to tell him to run when there is nobody there.