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Thread: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

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    Poll Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

    In addition to my weekly Sagarin thread, I'm going to post updates to Tech's Elo as the season progresses. 538 has a college football Elo system, but it's P5 heavy, doesn't cover teams before the current era, and you can't (yet) pull any teams history at random. All teams begin at 1000 and gain points based on wins and losses. 1000 is considered mediocre, 1500+ are generally the blue bloods. Sub-500 is atrocious (ULL 638, ULM 368), sub-100 should be given the death penalty (Texas State 70, UTEP 20, Kansas -172). Bowl games aren't worth any more but they do give you a chance to get (or lose) extra points. FCS teams don't count. You also regress 25% each season (to mimic players leaving and generally to model regression to the mean).

    Its main use is to compare the total history of two teams in a single number. For example, by my numbers (and also 538's, I think), last year's Alabama team was the best team ever.


    The current Top 5 are:

    1 Alabama 2423
    2 Ohio St. 2243
    3 Clemson (SC) 2159
    4 Oklahoma 2116
    5 Wisconsin 2097


    Fun fact: our biggest upset win was Fresneck in 2008: 536 vs 1272. Our most recent Top 10 all time win was 2011 Nevada: 877 vs 1477. We are pretty starved at this point for a big time win.

    Our conference mates stand as follows:

    42 Louisiana Tech 1223
    47 Western Kentucky 1190
    64 Florida Atlantic 990
    67 Middle Tennessee St. 962
    78 Southern Mississippi 855
    84 Texas-San Antonio 798
    85 Alabama-Birmingham 795
    91 Old Dominion (VA) 740
    97 Florida International 635
    106 North Texas 539
    124 Rice (TX) 247
    125 North Carolina-Charlotte 195
    129 Texas-El Paso 20


    We were very close to breaking our all-time record (1392) in 2016 before the predictable late-season collapse. Also predictably, the game that would have broken the record was the Rivalry in Dixie against a 5-6 USM team. What a world.

    This season is precarious because we have a very real chance of losing our top spot in the conference. Thankfully WKU is predicted to be down this year, but FAU definitely has an outside shot at gaining enough if we lose enough.

    Elo is not *super* useful for game predictions because it is more of a tracker/historical record. It's very heavily weighted towards a team's history, not necessarily how they are recently. It's still interesting to take a look at.

    opp elo w%
    South Alabama 517 97%
    Southern U. 100%
    Louisiana St. 1654 4%
    North Texas 539 97%
    Alabama-Birmingham 795 95%
    Texas-San Antonio 798 87%
    Texas-El Paso 20 100%
    Florida Atlantic 990 68%
    Mississippi St. 1406 16%
    Rice (TX) 247 100%
    Southern Mississippi 855 82%
    Western Kentucky 1190 68%


    This gives us 10-2, largely because FAU's success has not quite been able to pull them out of the basement Elo-wise. As I stated in the Sagarin thread, I think that 9-3 is the minimum acceptable record for this team. Let's see how we do!

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018


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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

    ''Don't be a bad dagh..."

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    Hunter Lee's Hero HogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond reputeHogDawg has a reputation beyond repute HogDawg's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

    Fun fact: our biggest upset win was Fresneck in 2008: 536 vs 1272. Our most recent Top 10 all time win was 2011 Nevada: 877 vs 1477. We are pretty starved at this point for a big time win.
    BlueDawg's research and the ELO system simply substantiate 2 things that we already knew:

    1) CUSA sucks as a football conference

    2) LA Tech has under-performed for years, and is starved for a Big Time win.


    IMO, LA Tech hasn't really had a big time win since defeating Illinois in the HOD Bowl back in 2014. Maybe the 48-45 win over #25 ranked Navy in the 2016 Armed Services Bowl qualifies? But, prior to that, you have to go all the way back to Tech's victories at Ole Miss and Nevada in 2011 (WAC title year), and wins at Illinois, Virginia and Houston in 2012 to really point to any BIG wins.

    Say what you will about Sonny Dykes, but ole Sonny knew how to upset some of the big boys on the road.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

    Navy was actually, at the time, only one rank up from us (-27 point difference). We were also much better than Illinois at the time, with a +613 point difference.

    Oh, for the days of the 1995 Bowling Green game; they were 1015 points above us and we won 28-21 (the reason I don't count this as bigger than Fresneck is because the smaller win margin gives us less of a benefit). 1997 Alabama was also a good win (-735), but our glory days are behind us unless Holtz becomes a totally different coach (or we get a totally different coach).

    Holtz's biggest win is 2017 WKU (-245). In contrast, he's lost 12 games where we were favored by that much (plus one that's close).
    1. 2013 Tulane, +873 (!!!)
    2. 2017 UNT, +691
    3. 2016 USM, +680
    4. 2013 Kansas, +594
    5. 2013 Army. +584
    6. 2015 USM, +561
    7. 2017 UAB, +499
    8. 2017 FAU, +441
    9. 2014 ODU, +347
    10. 2017 USM, +329
    11. 2013 UNT, +329
    12. 2016 Texas Tech, +252
    13. (2016 MTSU, +238)
    To be totally fair, as I stated before, Elo often lags the actual team power. So FAU is excusable, for example (if it were the only one on the list), since Kiffin is bringing them up from the cellar. Then there are some others like 2017 Mississippi State, where we were favored +31, which is about break even (or break-back, as far as Holtz is concerned), but the teams were obviously playing in different universes.

    But we don't really need any advanced analysis to confirm what we already know: Holtz cannot get big wins, and he regularly loses games that shouldn't even be close.

  6. #6
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dawg View Post
    Navy was actually, at the time, only one rank up from us (-27 point difference). We were also much better than Illinois at the time, with a +613 point difference.

    Oh, for the days of the 1995 Bowling Green game; they were 1015 points above us and we won 28-21 (the reason I don't count this as bigger than Fresneck is because the smaller win margin gives us less of a benefit). 1997 Alabama was also a good win (-735), but our glory days are behind us unless Holtz becomes a totally different coach (or we get a totally different coach).

    Holtz's biggest win is 2017 WKU (-245). In contrast, he's lost 12 games where we were favored by that much (plus one that's close).
    1. 2013 Tulane, +873 (!!!)
    2. 2017 UNT, +691
    3. 2016 USM, +680
    4. 2013 Kansas, +594
    5. 2013 Army. +584
    6. 2015 USM, +561
    7. 2016 UAB, +499
    8. 2017 FAU, +441
    9. 2014 ODU, +347
    10. 2017 USM, +329
    11. 2013 UNT, +329
    12. 2016 Texas Tech, +252
    13. (2016 MTSU, +238)
    To be totally fair, as I stated before, Elo often lags the actual team power. So FAU is excusable, for example (if it were the only one on the list), since Kiffin is bringing them up from the cellar. Then there are some others like 2017 Mississippi State, where we were favored +31, which is about break even (or break-back, as far as Holtz is concerned), but the teams were obviously playing in different universes.

    But we don't really need any advanced analysis to confirm what we already know: Holtz cannot get big wins, and he regularly loses games that shouldn't even be close.
    Why is there a 2016 UAB on that list?

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Tech52 View Post
    Why is there a 2016 UAB on that list?
    Because it should say 2017.

    Though if anyone could find a way to lose to a team that doesn't exist...

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dawg View Post
    Though if anyone could find a way to lose to a team that doesn't exist...
    Well …

    You could let them stay in your conference, notwithstanding the bylaws. And then you could reward their bad faith by letting them host a basketball tournament.

    Would that count?

  9. #9
    Champ Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

    We gained +21 points on Saturday, leaving us at #42.

    North Texas is up 12 spots to #94 after whipping SMU.

  10. #10
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dawg View Post
    Navy was actually, at the time, only one rank up from us (-27 point difference). We were also much better than Illinois at the time, with a +613 point difference.

    Oh, for the days of the 1995 Bowling Green game; they were 1015 points above us and we won 28-21 (the reason I don't count this as bigger than Fresneck is because the smaller win margin gives us less of a benefit). 1997 Alabama was also a good win (-735), but our glory days are behind us unless Holtz becomes a totally different coach (or we get a totally different coach).

    Holtz's biggest win is 2017 WKU (-245). In contrast, he's lost 12 games where we were favored by that much (plus one that's close).
    1. 2013 Tulane, +873 (!!!)
    2. 2017 UNT, +691
    3. 2016 USM, +680
    4. 2013 Kansas, +594
    5. 2013 Army. +584
    6. 2015 USM, +561
    7. 2017 UAB, +499
    8. 2017 FAU, +441
    9. 2014 ODU, +347
    10. 2017 USM, +329
    11. 2013 UNT, +329
    12. 2016 Texas Tech, +252
    13. (2016 MTSU, +238)
    To be totally fair, as I stated before, Elo often lags the actual team power. So FAU is excusable, for example (if it were the only one on the list), since Kiffin is bringing them up from the cellar. Then there are some others like 2017 Mississippi State, where we were favored +31, which is about break even (or break-back, as far as Holtz is concerned), but the teams were obviously playing in different universes.

    But we don't really need any advanced analysis to confirm what we already know: Holtz cannot get big wins, and he regularly loses games that shouldn't even be close.
    Hard to believe that USM is on that list 3 times. It's like they're his daddy or something.

  11. #11
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by SicemDawgz View Post
    Hard to believe that USM is on that list 3 times. It's like they're his daddy or something.
    Not his Daddy. They own us in all sports that matter.
    "eye fo an eye and toof fo a toof" - Idiot in Missouri

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

    opp elo w%
    114 South Alabama 550 100%
    Southern U. 100%
    14 Louisiana St. 1536 7%
    100 North Texas 704 90%
    90 Alabama-Birmingham 787 95%
    99 Texas-San Antonio 704 90%
    129 Texas-El Paso 209 100%
    64 Florida Atlantic 967 66%
    27 Mississippi St. 1354 18%
    124 Rice (TX) 351 100%
    81 Southern Mississippi 865 78%
    52 Western Kentucky 1094 75%

    Remember, FCS losses don't count for good or bad. So WKU doesn't lose anything for falling to Maine - if they truly are a bad team then the rating should reflect that when they play FBS opponents. Similarly, we remain at 1186, but our overall rank improves to #40, thanks to movements by others.

    40 Louisiana Tech 1186
    52 Western Kentucky 1094
    64 Florida Atlantic 967
    73 Middle Tennessee St. 901
    81 Southern Mississippi 865
    90 Alabama-Birmingham 787
    91 Old Dominion (VA) 760
    95 Florida International 719
    99 Texas-San Antonio 704
    100 North Texas 704
    124 Rice (TX) 351
    127 North Carolina-Charlotte 262
    129 Texas-El Paso 209
    Last edited by Blue Dawg; 09-10-2018 at 12:54 PM. Reason: whoops, used the wrong dataset

  13. #13
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dawg View Post
    opp elo w%
    114 South Alabama 550 100%
    Southern U. 100%
    14 Louisiana St. 1536 7%
    100 North Texas 704 90%
    90 Alabama-Birmingham 787 95%
    99 Texas-San Antonio 704 90%
    129 Texas-El Paso 209 100%
    64 Florida Atlantic 967 66%
    27 Mississippi St. 1354 18%
    124 Rice (TX) 351 100%
    81 Southern Mississippi 865 78%
    52 Western Kentucky 1094 75%


    Remember, FCS losses don't count for good or bad. So WKU doesn't lose anything for falling to Maine - if they truly are a bad team then the rating should reflect that when they play FBS opponents. Similarly, we remain at 1186, but our overall rank improves to #40, thanks to movements by others.

    40 Louisiana Tech 1186
    52 Western Kentucky 1094
    64 Florida Atlantic 967
    73 Middle Tennessee St. 901
    81 Southern Mississippi 865
    90 Alabama-Birmingham 787
    91 Old Dominion (VA) 760
    95 Florida International 719
    99 Texas-San Antonio 704
    100 North Texas 704
    124 Rice (TX) 351
    127 North Carolina-Charlotte 262
    129 Texas-El Paso 209
    What about Marshall? Don't see them listed anywhere.
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  14. #14
    Champ Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

    Marshall is 53 with a Elo of 1094. One of these days I'll make a post and get everything right the first time.

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