How/why is UNT so far down?
WKU is better than their 1-3 record.
How/why is UNT so far down?
WKU is better than their 1-3 record.
opp elo w% 114 South Alabama 521 100% Southern U. 100% 11 Louisiana St. 1637 0% 85 North Texas 824 100% 83 Alabama-Birmingham 863 91% 95 Texas-San Antonio 752 86% 130 Texas-El Paso 112 100% 71 Florida Atlantic 921 69% 30 Mississippi St. 1304 20% 125 Rice (TX) 270 100% 76 Southern Mississippi 884 74% 51 Western Kentucky 1081 74%
No substantial change. Our only chance for an Elo-upset will most likely be WKU. We will not beat MSU. FAU would have to work pretty hard to have more points than us come game time.
43 Louisiana Tech 1164 51 Western Kentucky 1081 52 Marshall (WV) 1079 71 Florida Atlantic 921 76 Southern Mississippi 884 81 Middle Tennessee St. 872 83 Alabama-Birmingham 863 85 North Texas 824 95 Texas-San Antonio 752 96 Florida International 744 100 Old Dominion (VA) 729 123 North Carolina-Charlotte 288 125 Rice (TX) 270 130 Texas-El Paso 112
I wonder how many points Mississippi State will drop if they lose their next three games?
opp elo w% 115 South Alabama 432 100% Southern U. 100% 10 Louisiana St. 1646 0% 76 North Texas 886 100% 69 Alabama-Birmingham 957 0% 97 Texas-San Antonio 698 100% 130 Texas-El Paso 88 100% 70 Florida Atlantic 954 63% 29 Mississippi St. 1354 15% 126 Rice (TX) 173 100% 87 Southern Mississippi 812 79% 68 Western Kentucky 975 83%
I still have hope that FAU or WKU will be 1000+ by the time we play. They're unlikely to outrank us, though.
45 Louisiana Tech 1147 53 Marshall (WV) 1066 68 Western Kentucky 975 69 Alabama-Birmingham 957 70 Florida Atlantic 954 76 North Texas 886 77 Middle Tennessee St. 879 87 Southern Mississippi 812 93 Florida International 759 97 Texas-San Antonio 698 104 Old Dominion (VA) 622 124 North Carolina-Charlotte 211 126 Rice (TX) 173 130 Texas-El Paso 88
opp elo w% 113 South Alabama 469 100% Southern U. 100% 9 Louisiana St. 1689 0% 83 North Texas 860 100% 63 Alabama-Birmingham 1007 0% 97 Texas-San Antonio 703 100% 130 Texas-El Paso 72 100% 77 Florida Atlantic 915 72% 32 Mississippi St. 1313 20% 126 Rice (TX) 142 100% 81 Southern Mississippi 868 77% 69 Western Kentucky 966 86%
UTEP was historically bad. We'll have another chance for a record setting loss with Rice.
44 Louisiana Tech 1177 47 Marshall (WV) 1132 63 Alabama-Birmingham 1007 69 Western Kentucky 966 75 Middle Tennessee St. 921 77 Florida Atlantic 915 81 Southern Mississippi 868 83 North Texas 860 89 Florida International 809 97 Texas-San Antonio 703 101 Old Dominion (VA) 666 119 North Carolina-Charlotte 345 126 Rice (TX) 142 130 Texas-El Paso 72
Relative performance of Tech (blue) and FAU (red) since 2013:
opp elo w% 114 South Alabama 430 100% Southern U. 100% 10 Louisiana St. 1689 0% 79 North Texas 901 100% 61 Alabama-Birmingham 1042 0% 99 Texas-San Antonio 703 100% 130 Texas-El Paso 37 100% 81 Florida Atlantic 882 100% 31 Mississippi St. 1357 19% 129 Rice (TX) 101 100% 86 Southern Mississippi 838 83% 77 Western Kentucky 910 91%
40 Louisiana Tech 1210 49 Marshall (WV) 1132 61 Alabama-Birmingham 1042 67 Middle Tennessee St. 975 77 Western Kentucky 910 79 North Texas 901 81 Florida Atlantic 882 83 Florida International 865 86 Southern Mississippi 838 99 Texas-San Antonio 703 103 Old Dominion (VA) 612 117 North Carolina-Charlotte 375 129 Rice (TX) 101 130 Texas-El Paso 37
We lost 59 points last night. Still not as bad as UAB (-60).
opp elo w% 115 South Alabama 389 100% Southern U. 100% 12 Louisiana St. 1645 0% 75 North Texas 901 100% 57 Alabama-Birmingham 1099 0% 101 Texas-San Antonio 646 100% 129 Texas-El Paso 75 100% 73 Florida Atlantic 942 100% 22 Mississippi St. 1416 0% 130 Rice (TX) 63 100% 83 Southern Mississippi 859 75% 82 Western Kentucky 861 90%
Rice might be even worse than UTEP was at the time. Doesn't matter, we're bowl-bound!
47 Louisiana Tech 1151 54 Marshall (WV) 1111 57 Alabama-Birmingham 1099 63 Middle Tennessee St. 1024 73 Florida Atlantic 942 75 North Texas 901 82 Western Kentucky 861 83 Southern Mississippi 859 88 Florida International 805 101 Texas-San Antonio 646 105 Old Dominion (VA) 612 119 North Carolina-Charlotte 340 129 Texas-El Paso 75 130 Rice (TX) 63
We lost -13 points and are now down to #49.
opp elo w% 118 South Alabama 302 100% Southern U. 100% 11 Louisiana St. 1703 0% 76 North Texas 898 100% 59 Alabama-Birmingham 1069 0% 107 Texas-San Antonio 545 100% 129 Texas-El Paso 2 100% 67 Florida Atlantic 967 100% 23 Mississippi St. 1428 0% 130 Rice (TX) -2 100% 84 Southern Mississippi 851 78% 83 Western Kentucky 852 92%
We have lost every game we've played against a 1000+ opponent (so anyone above average).
As an additional result, we are no longer leading CUSA. Marshall has finally overtaken us.
47 Marshall (WV) 1190 49 Louisiana Tech 1169 59 Alabama-Birmingham 1069 64 Middle Tennessee St. 1014 67 Florida Atlantic 967 76 North Texas 898 78 Florida International 891 83 Western Kentucky 852 84 Southern Mississippi 851 101 Old Dominion (VA) 639 107 Texas-San Antonio 545 119 North Carolina-Charlotte 276 129 Texas-El Paso 2 130 Rice (TX) -2
Skip's all time Top 10 upsets are as follows:
9/12/2013 Tulane (LA) +873 11/4/2017 North Texas +691 11/25/2016 Southern Mississippi +680 9/21/2013 Kansas +594 9/28/2013 Army (NY) +584 11/28/2015 Southern Mississippi +561 10/7/2017 Alabama-Birmingham +499 11/11/2017 Florida Atlantic +441 11/22/2014 Old Dominion (VA) +347 11/17/2018 Southern Mississippi +344 10/21/2017 Southern Mississippi +329
His upsets remain the same:
9/16/2017 Western Kentucky -245 10/6/2016 Western Kentucky -195 9/6/2014 Louisiana-Lafayette -175 12/23/2016 Navy (MD) -75 9/11/2014 North Texas -44 12/19/2015 Arkansas St. -28
I can tell you which list I'm more impressed with.
I'll wait until the bowl opponent is announced before making a prediction and final season closing thoughts.
This year (so far) we were 3 wins below "average." That is, we had three more losses than an average (1000) team would have had. Thats about one standard deviation below average. Our expected record was 9-3.
45 Marshall (WV) 1210 53 Louisiana Tech 1114 59 Middle Tennessee St. 1070 65 Alabama-Birmingham 1013 73 Florida Atlantic 933 75 North Texas 918 76 Western Kentucky 907 79 Southern Mississippi 893 81 Florida International 871 104 Old Dominion (VA) 575 106 Texas-San Antonio 525 117 North Carolina-Charlotte 310 126 Rice (TX) 62 130 Texas-El Paso -40