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Thread: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

  1. #31
    65's Top 10 Worthless Poster Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by dawg80 View Post
    Apparently better than their 2-9, now 3-9 record, but not good enough for WKU.
    Some teams aren't ok with failure. A difficult concept for Tech fans to grasp.

  2. #32
    65's Top 10 Worthless Poster Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    2018 Elo Summary

    We began the year at #42 and a predicted 10-2 record.

    We end the year at #49 and a 8-5 record.

    We had the #10 worst upset of Skip's career at Tech, 20-21 vs USM (the 4th straight loss). We were favored by +344 points.

    We had the #12 best upset of Skip's career at Tech, 21-13 vs FAU. We were favored by +245 points.

    Skip is now 6-21 in upset games (so he's won 6 he should have lost, lost 21 he should have won). Troubling.

    In 2018, we were 3 wins below average (so a 1000 Elo team would have been favored in 11 games with our schedule). To put this into some perspective, for the teams at -3 WAA, the average number of wins was 3.375 (only Toledo, Arkansas St, and us got more than 4), and Clemson was 9 WAA. Remember that FCS games are not counted for Elo purposes. This means that Skip is -13 WAA during his time here. I'm not sure what a coach replacement level is but that might be interesting to look at.

    Skip continues his stagnation from last year (chart shown for his whole Tech career). Astute minds may be able to discern the common factor.



    Now, even though I'm in favor of a change in direction, I don't think you should make that case yet from just these numbers. But perhaps this will help the blind to see that we are under-performing. Is it critical? Not sure.

  3. #33
    65's Top 10 Worthless Poster Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

    The coaches fired in 2018 had the following wins above average during their tenures. I'm not sure what everyone else has, except for Holtz. That'd take a long time to calculate.

    Texas Tech Kliff Kingsbury 10
    North Carolina Larry Fedora 5
    Louisville Bobby Petrino 3
    Houston Major Applewhite 0
    Colorado Mike MacIntyre 0
    East Carolina Scottie Montgomery -4
    Western Kentucky Mike Sanford -7
    Kansas David Beaty -7
    Bowling Green Mike Jinks -12
    Central Michigan John Bonamego -13
    Texas State Everett Withers -19
    Massachusetts Mark Whipple -21
    Akron Terry Bowden -24
    Charlotte Brad Lambert -25

  4. #34
    Champ dawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond reputedawg80 has a reputation beyond repute dawg80's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

    6-21 in upset games? Wow! that speaks volumes. Of course, our heretofore present, but now "run for the hills" Sunshine Pumpers, will try to convince us that 6-21 is awesome, yeah baby! because back in the 1930's Tech would have gone 0-27 in such games. And Terry Bradshaw once threw 10 INTs...all in the 1st half of one game.

    Speaking of the aforementioned Sunshine Pumpers...will they ever man-up and comeback, admit how wrong they've been, and apologize to those of us who actually know a little something? Speaking only for myself, I will readily forgive and forget, because I'm just that type of fellow.

  5. #35
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

    Considering the odd way you calculate it, Id like a bit more than a record. These are Elo Upsets? You mentioned USM as an upset, but didnt mention WKU as one. But WKU is by far the worst loss of the year. Was it not an Elo Upset?

  6. #36
    65's Top 10 Worthless Poster Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Tech52 View Post
    Considering the odd way you calculate it, Id like a bit more than a record. These are Elo Upsets? You mentioned USM as an upset, but didnt mention WKU as one. But WKU is by far the worst loss of the year. Was it not an Elo Upset?
    Great question! It was indeed, but not the worst depending on how you look at it. I like to think of it as "good-will." WKU stored up a lot of karma (that they are using up quickly), so they are still "better" than USM. You can also look at it in terms of how badly we were beaten, in which case UAB would have been the worst (60 points exchanged). Mississippi State, for comparison, only stole 59 points from us despite a much more thorough dismantling, because they were already ranked so much higher.

    The three upsets this year were:

    Team Elo difference Point exchange
    #10 Southern Mississippi -344 -13
    #13 Western Kentucky -317 -55
    #14 Alabama-Birmingham -301 -60

    Things like this are why I consider it more of a curiosity. Purely objective ratings always have places where they fail the eye test.

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