Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Thread Dunkin' Dawgs 2018-19

[Blue Dawg]

	Last Yr	This Wk
Sag Rk	151	136
Sag Rat	72.98	73.47
Pred W-L		20-9*
Pred W-L		0.690
Home Adv		3.2
OOC Rk (A)		130
OOC Rk (H)		292
Conf Rk		185
Conf Opp Rk		180

This is actually a pleasant surprise. We are ranked to improve over last year. However, I will be marking the W-L with an asterisk to remind us that we have not one but two NAIA games to pad our record and get Konkol another 15 year extension.

H/A	Rk	Team	Sag	Fav	W/L	+/-	W%
@	75	WSU	79.28	-9.01	L		0.27
	254	SHSt	66.42	10.25	W		0.76
		HARD			W
@	50	LSU	82.38	-12.11	L		0.20
		TOUG			W
	91	UNCG	77.58	-0.91	L		0.48
@	221	DEL	68.48	1.79	W		0.54
	318	HBU	61.31	15.36	W		0.88
	319	PVAM	60.98	15.69	W		0.89
@	146	SFA	73.17	-2.90	L		0.43
	348	MVST	53.75	22.92	W		1.00
@	156	ULL	72.49	-2.22	L		0.44
	295	AMCC	63.64	13.03	W		0.83
	200	USM	69.76	6.91	W		0.67
@	147	UNT	73.09	-2.82	L		0.43
@	305	RICE	62.87	7.40	W		0.69
	164	UAB	72.07	4.60	W		0.62
	140	MTSU	73.25	3.42	W		0.59
@	93	ODU	77.30	-7.03	L		0.32
@	284	CHAR	64.48	5.79	W		0.64
	96	MARS	77.06	-0.39	L		0.49
	71	WKU	79.80	-3.13	L		0.42
	266	FAU	65.93	10.74	W		0.77
@	226	FIU	68.07	2.20	W		0.56
@	200	USM	69.76	0.51	W		0.51
@	233	UTEP	67.60	2.67	W		0.57
	162	UTSA	72.09	4.58	W		0.61
		?
		?
		?
		?
		?

The flex schedule will be interesting. We will hopefully be able to see, by tracking this throughout the season, whether it helps or hurts us. Knowing CUSA, it will be specifically designed to screw us over. As if Konk and Tommy didn't already take care of that with 3 300+ OOC games.

Rk	C-USA
71	Western Kentucky
93	Old Dominion
96	Marshall
136	Louisiana Tech
140	Middle Tennessee
147	North Texas
162	UTSA
164	UAB
200	Southern Miss
226	Fla. International
233	UTEP
266	Florida Atlantic
284	Charlotte
305	Rice

And yet CUSA is still so fantastically weak that we're almost sure to get a Top 4 seed before our Game 1 upset.

[skilldawg]

But we are set up to get an at large!

[SicemDawgz]

But we are set up to get an at large!

Exactly!! With our strength of schedule and 20+ wins, we are almost guaranteed a spot in the CIT if we can come up with the money

[Blue Dawg]

This is, uh, interesting. Early season and all that...

	Last Wk	This Wk
Sag Rk	136	62
Sag Rat	73.47	79.45
Pred W-L	20-9*	28-1*
Pred W-L	0.690	0.966
Home Adv	3.2	3.2
OOC Rk (A)	130	120
OOC Rk (H)	292	275
Conf Rk	185	162
Conf Opp Rk	180	159

H/A	Rk	Team	Sag	Fav	W/L	+/-	Q	W%
@	75	WSU	79.28	13.00	W		92.28
	254	SHSt	66.42	7.00	W		76.62	0.68
	355	HARD			W
@	44	LSU	82.35	-6.10	L			0.35
	355	TOUG			W
	91	UNCG	77.39	5.26	W			0.63
@	143	DEL	73.28	2.97	W			0.57
	304	HBU	61.13	21.52	W			1.00
	204	PVAM	68.94	13.71	W			0.84
@	158	SFA	72.83	3.42	W			0.59
	350	MVST	50.72	31.93	W			1.00
@	182	ULL	70.71	5.54	W			0.64
	286	AMCC	63.30	19.35	W			0.98
	101	USM	76.17	6.48	W			0.66
@	111	UNT	75.18	1.07	W			0.53
@	302	RICE	62.12	14.13	W			0.85
	144	UAB	72.73	9.92	W			0.75
	153	MTSU	72.91	9.74	W			0.74
@	110	ODU	76.06	0.19	W			0.50
@	290	CHAR	63.06	13.19	W			0.83
	52	MARS	81.96	0.69	W			0.52
	137	WKU	73.61	9.04	W			0.73
	123	FAU	74.60	8.05	W			0.70
@	223	FIU	67.73	8.52	W			0.71
@	101	USM	76.17	0.08	W			0.50
@	246	UTEP	65.95	10.30	W			0.76
	168	UTSA	71.75	10.90	W			0.77
		?
		?
		?
		?
		?

I have checked my numbers a few times. Am I seeing things? We are predicted to lose at lsu and then not at all. Of course, we're in a Bottom 5 conference.

Rk	C-USA
52	Marshall
62	Louisiana Tech
101	Southern Miss
110	Old Dominion
111	North Texas
123	Florida Atlantic
137	Western Kentucky
144	UAB
153	Middle Tennessee
168	UTSA
223	Fla. International
246	UTEP
290	Charlotte
302	Rice

[Tech52]

I will accept these conditions, where do I sign?

[tenacious_dog]

Can't believe we jumped that much. ULL & SFA dropped a lot as they haven't played yet. Hope they win right up to when we play and we take 'em out!

[Blue Dawg]

Can't believe we jumped that much. ULL & SFA dropped a lot as they haven't played yet. Hope they win right up to when we play and we take 'em out!

This is the biggest jump I think I've seen in the first week but the initial rankings are always very inaccurate. Usually we drop the first week as well.

[nadB]

This is the biggest jump I think I've seen in the first week but the initial rankings are always very inaccurate........................

Best I remember ??, we were 5th in the nation (RPI) after the Shockers game; now dropped down to #15 behind FAU at #14 (they beat UCF on the road) and Marshall at #4.

Realtime RPI projects us to finish the season at 15-10; 9-5 in conference play.

[Blue Dawg]

Best I remember ??, we were 5th in the nation (RPI) after the Shockers game; now dropped down to #15 behind FAU at #14 (they beat UCF on the road) and Marshall at #4.

Realtime RPI projects us to finish the season at 15-10; 9-5 in conference play.

I mean, we both know RPI ain't worth the paper its written on. Best it can do is give us something to complain about when we have to be #5 seed in the NIT because a 19-11 A5 team wanted the #1 seed.

[nadB]

I mean, we both know RPI ain't worth the paper its written on. Best it can do is give us something to complain about when we have to be #5 seed in the NIT because a 19-11 A5 team wanted the #1 seed.

yeah, twas merely agreeing with you in that "the initial rankings are always very inaccurate", no matter what indicators you use.

[StrongBad]

Best I remember ??, we were 5th in the nation (RPI) after the Shockers game; now dropped down to #15 behind FAU at #14 (they beat UCF on the road)

We're 11th in the RPI, above all other CUSA teams except Marshall who is 10th, but RPI isn't used anymore. Good luck finding the new rankings done by the new ranking system.

[champion110]

Beat lsu and watch it rise again dramatically!

[Blue Dawg]

We're 11th in the RPI, above all other CUSA teams except Marshall who is 10th, but RPI isn't used anymore. Good luck finding the new rankings done by the new ranking system.

The new ranking is "are you A5?"

[nadB]

AT LARGE, Baby, AT LARGE

[Blue Dawg]

The dream couldn't last forever.

	Last Wk	This Wk
Sag Rk	62	78
Sag Rat	79.45	78.68
Pred W-L	28-1*	25-4*
Pred W-L	0.966	0.862
Home Adv	3.2	3.2
OOC Rk (A)	120	126
OOC Rk (H)	275	274
Conf Rk	162	166
Conf Opp Rk	159	166
Average Q	84.45	61.06

H/A	Rk	Team	Sag	Fav	W/L	+/-	Q	W%
@	75	WSU	79.28	13.00	W		92.28	1.00
	254	SHSt	66.42	7.00	W		76.62	1.00
	355	HARD			W		0.00	1.00
@	44	LSU	82.35	-7.00	L		75.35	0.00
	355	TOUG			W			1.00
	65	UNCG	79.81	2.07	W	-3.19		0.55
@	136	DEL	74.19	1.29	W	-1.68		0.53
	314	HBU	59.38	22.50	W	0.98		1.00
	246	PVAM	66.32	15.56	W	1.85		0.89
@	244	SFA	64.77	10.71	W	7.29		0.77
	351	MVST	52.06	29.82	W	-2.11		1.00
@	131	ULL	74.93	0.55	W	-4.99		0.51
	248	AMCC	65.70	16.18	W	-3.17		0.90
	73	USM	78.81	3.07	W	-3.41		0.58
@	64	UNT	79.57	-4.09	L	-5.16		0.40
@	215	RICE	68.63	6.85	W	-7.28		0.67
	151	UAB	72.06	9.82	W	-0.10		0.75
	214	MTSU	67.67	14.21	W	4.47		0.86
@	114	ODU	75.98	-0.50	L	-0.69		0.49
@	312	CHAR	62.11	13.37	W	0.18		0.83
	59	MARS	80.03	1.85	W	1.16		0.55
	104	WKU	76.35	5.53	W	-3.51		0.64
	172	FAU	70.86	11.02	W	2.97		0.78
@	221	FIU	67.32	8.16	W	-0.36		0.70
@	73	USM	78.81	-3.33	L	-3.41		0.42
@	305	UTEP	61.65	13.83	W	3.53		0.85
	242	UTSA	65.92	15.96	W	5.06		0.90

Every time I look at this schedule I get furious. Every time. I'm setting the quality of the NAIA games to 0 to reflect this.

Rk	C-USA
59	Marshall
64	North Texas
73	Southern Miss
78	Louisiana Tech
104	Western Kentucky
114	Old Dominion
151	UAB
172	Florida Atlantic
214	Middle Tennessee
215	Rice
221	Fla. International
242	UTSA
305	UTEP
312	Charlotte

Man, CUSA is bad.