We've Hit a Plateau

[rockdog]

Another new thread. I know. I know. But hear me out. I debated posting this for a while. It is a message board, and we are all prone to freak out moments. I think this game today solidified my reasoning for posting this however.

2013: 4-8
2014: 9-5
2015: 9-4
*2016: 9-5
2017: 7-6
2018: 7-5

These are the Skip Holtz years.
*This is when Todd Fitch jumped aboard as OC.

Here is the conversation we had when Skip Holtz was hired. I think I and a few others discussed this exact scenario. Some people said you were good with it. Some of you said you were not good with it. How do we measure success? Are we meeting the measurement?

Here is the conversation from when Holtz was hired:

I just don't want to lose a minimum of 5 games per year. That's what Holtz also offers. I just don't see him taking us to the next level. I could see him keeping us competitive, winning some games, and making some bowls, but I don't see him taking La Tech to the next level.
-Rockdog

The next level for me is just stringing together three winning seasons in row!
-RougeDawg

Exactly..What is the next level? Hell Id be happy to be where Southern Miss was under Jeff Bower. Going to a bowl game every single year for 19 straight years. Id like to be a consistent bowl team first. And if he loses 5 games in THIS cusa he would have to be a pretty terrible coach. The one he was winning was much better than this one
-BlueCrew

That wasn't enough for USM.... they fired Bower. Then Fedora got about the same results, but had 1 good season and left. Then the bottom fell out with the next hire (0-12).

I think Holtz would be a lot like Bower, and he would probably stick around for a long time and build the program (because his resume doesn't really blow anyone away now).

If we ever got bored with his 8-5 seasons and bowl games and occasional conference championships... that would be a nice place to be. But it would be nice to get there first.
-T1

I think the next level should be to consistently push to be a top 25 team or near a top 25 team year after year. I also think the next level should be to follow a similar model to Boise State. I feel we have the resources and the location to not only be a consistent winner but also a salty team year after year.

Southern Miss' situation was and is interesting. They were content for years with the same results. The problem with Bower is that he was NEVER able to get them over the hump. They got rid of him, and Fedora was much closer to taking them to where they wanted to be. I know it's a long shot, but if you aren't trying to be the best team in the nation every year, then what exactly are you trying to do? I feel a lot of people are content with us simply being a good ol' little team from Ruston. I'll play the naive card, but I am still hoping that in my lifetime that I can see Louisiana finally support and have two legitimate teams.

Would Holtz be the worst hire? No. Certainly not. The man can coach. I just don't see him taking Tech to the level that I want to see us at. I guess I'll be the "pie in the sky" guy for the day. I get what you're saying. It's not like we've ever been a consistent winner at this level, and Holtz could probably bring that. I just want more than a consistent winner, but I may be thinking too "rah rah" at this point.
-Rockdog


I agree with this 100%. I can think of alot worse than Holtz but I pick up what your putting down.
-Bluecrew

He won 2 CUSA championships in 08 and 09. Anyone else we interviewed would be a gamble. They might work out, they might not. Holtz is a guaranteed solid coach with years of experience and lots of connections.
-T1

...at least 5 losses in EVERY SINGLE SEASON he's coached at this level...
-Rockdog

This is how his offenses have ranked over the years. Do we really expect this guy to change his entire coaching philosophy?

USF:
2012: 20.6 ppg (367.5 yards per game)
2011: 29.3 ppg (431.7 yards per game)
2010: 23.5 ppg (311.9 yards per game)
---
ECU:
2009: 27.8 ppg (367.6 yards per game)
2008: 23.8 ppg (336 yards per game)
2007: 30.2 ppg (377.9 yards per game) (His best year - still worse than Dykes era year 2)
2006: 22.8 ppg (350.8 yards per game)
2005: 24.3 ppg (393.5 yards per game)

-Rockdog

Do you guys honestly feel that this is the guy that pushes us over the hump, gets us into the 9-11 win category consistently, and pushes us into the top 25 routinely?
-Rockdog

Uhhh, no. But I think it may be a guy that gets us to winning most of our games most years. Baby steps.
-Rougedawg

I don't think he's that guy. We need more money, fans, facilities, etc... for that guy.
-T1

I will ask again since you seem fine with this hire. What makes you think that he is going to do anything different? We've already seen what he has to offer. In his 8 year coaching tenure at this level, he has produced mediocre offense, defense, and records.
-Rockdog

I’m fully expecting the ECU coach. He won 2 championships there and was hired away to a better job. I don't think he is great coach like Saban or an innovative coach like Franklin, but I think he is an experienced leader, a communicator, good for the community, good for academics, and a classy fellow. He will be a great representative of La Tech and he will do things the right way. And he will win because this is the best job he has ever had.
-T1

So in response to my question of "what makes you think that he is going to do anything different? - the response is "because this is the best job he has ever had? I don't see this job as any better than ECU or USF. We're in a watered down CUSA.

The man has never won 10 games, loss less than 5 games per year, or produced a great offense or defense, and he hasn't shown anything in the 8 years he's been a coach to disprove that.

If you guys are content with 6-9 wins consistently and going to a nice little bowl, you have your man. I just thought we were aiming higher. I guess I'll move on from this discussion.
-Rockdog

If he brings Fitch (his regular OC), I'm going to think we hired a snake oil salesman, and I will lose respect immediately. If he goes for a spread guy, we are about to start winning some championships.
-T1

so...here we are.
And in that time, we've lost a ton of posters on this message board, we've lost attendance and excitement at the Joe, and we have regressed over the past two seasons. I don't think we are going to make a change any place honestly. I think we need a mixup on the offensive side of the ball, and I would start with the OC, in spite of or despite's Skip's involvement. Someone has to answer for a regression on that side of the ball. In the past two seasons - while we should be improving and getting better - we seem to be moving backwards offensively.

Where do we go from here?

[PawDawg]

Wasted opportunities by a couple of guys who make way more than they are worth.

They get paid to produce for their employer ( Ell Aye Tech)

Holtz got us 6 wins so we should bow down to him.

Our AD has been in charge of declining attendance for the past 3 years in FB an MBB. Not his fault though.

[BruceWillisDawg]

‘14-16 nine win seasons all have one thing in common - very good QB play.
‘17-18 7 win seasons have one thing in common - below average QB play.
Our offense requires a QB that can routinely complete passes - 65% +
Until we get a QB that is that efficient we better be abs to rush for 200+ per game OR we will continue have 6-7 wins seasons. Supposedly our defense this year was perhaps the best under Holtz
and we still limped to 7 wins against one of the weakest schedules (30th percentile) in the country.

[techman05]

I did not know enough and didn’t want to take the time to look up stuff to learn about him when we hired him. I was hoping after Dooley and Dykes that we might go after another coach with fire in his belly. I was disappointed to learn he was the hire, because the one thing I knew about him was his laid back, no fire attitude. We have learned from the successes and improvements that happened under our last 2 coaches that a school like Tech can’t stand still because in effect you are backpedaling. In 3 seasons, we have ground to a halt. Many saw it coming way before it happened and I am sad that you folks weren’t the ones who had the ear of our admin 6 years ago.

[eagle2180]

We are fixing to fall off the edge of the plateau into an abyss if the people in charge don’t make some changes.

[techman05]

It could be worse. We could still be in a conference with those Mt West schools getting our brains dusted every week.

[HogDawg]

I would say we've hit a gulley.

[rabiddawg]

a school like Tech can’t stand still because in effect you are backpedaling. In 3 seasons, we have ground to a halt.

I realized several years ago that we are always one bad season away from being a twin. Or, they can have an equal season to us and the effect is the same. One of my life long friends is nlulm. He already asked me what I was gonna do when they beat Tech in the bowl game.

He called me an arss yesterday when I text him “oops”

[T1]

I think all other coaches we've had would have won 9 games this year (some would have even beat UAB). Our offense lacks imagination and it kills us.... especially from the 10 yard line and in. We lost the last 2 games strictly because we couldn't score TD's on first and goal. Holtz has had time to fully implement his players and his schemes. We should be better than we are... we've actually regressed from the 14, 15, and 16 teams. We should have used those seasons to springboard us to even better teams. I think we got the players, but its frustrating that we seem to be wasting them.

[PawDawg]

I think all other coaches we've had would have won 9 games this year (some would have even beat UAB). Our offense lacks imagination and it kills us.... especially from the 10 yard line and in. We lost the last 2 games strictly because we couldn't score TD's on first and goal. Holtz has had time to fully implement his players and his schemes. We should be better than we are... we've actually regressed from the 14, 15, and 16 teams. We should have used those seasons to springboard us to even better teams. I think we got the players, but its frustrating that we seem to be wasting them.

Good post. I never understood why we were expected to drop off last year. A 5th year coach is supposed to be on auto-reload at that point. This year he rambles on and on about how young this team is and how seasoned they will be next year.

[Bulldog Tom]

I think all other coaches we've had would have won 9 games this year (some would have even beat UAB). Our offense lacks imagination and it kills us.... especially from the 10 yard line and in. We lost the last 2 games strictly because we couldn't score TD's on first and goal. Holtz has had time to fully implement his players and his schemes. We should be better than we are... we've actually regressed from the 14, 15, and 16 teams. We should have used those seasons to springboard us to even better teams. I think we got the players, but its frustrating that we seem to be wasting them.

This sums up our program in one paragraph! It is a sad situation that the people who are able to make changes do not seem to realize.

[PawDawg]

I'm pretty sure we could have won the 7 games we won with a different QB or combination of QBs from our bench. Before anybody mentions NT, remember there were two circus catches. One for a TD and another to set up a TD (maybe it was a FG).

I KNOW we could have lost the 5 games we lost with different QBs.

This is not on the QB it is on our HC/OC/MMgr

[Blue Dawg]

I'm pretty sure we could have won the 7 games we won with a different QB or combination of QBs from our bench. Before anybody mentions NT, remember there were two circus catches. One for a TD and another to set up a TD (maybe it was a FG).

I KNOW we could have lost the 5 games we lost with different QBs.

This is not on the QB it is on our HC/OC/MMgr

UNT required a last second heroic FG block by Amik.

[touchdown123]

I'm pretty sure we could have won the 7 games we won with a different QB or combination of QBs from our bench. Before anybody mentions NT, remember there were two circus catches. One for a TD and another to set up a TD (maybe it was a FG).

I KNOW we could have lost the 5 games we lost with different QBs.

This is not on the QB it is on our HC/OC/MMgr

I think two things can be true at once.

1. Better QB play equals 1-2 more wins, maybe 3.
2. Better coaching equals 1-3 more wins.

I think the best hope for next season is better QB play. While I am not a Holtz fan, there is 0 chance that he is fired. I would be relieved if he retires or is hired away, but that is close to 0 as well.

[DallasDog]

I would say we've hit a gulley.

I was thinking more like an iceberg!