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Thread: 2018-19 Bowl Games

  1. #346
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    Re: 2018-19 Bowl Games

    Based on the number of bowl games and total teams each year, the chances of making a bowl 5 times in a row is about 10%. The chance of winning 5 straight is about 0.3%. Thats not bad, to be honest.

    The overall percentage of teams winning conference championships is...7%.

    All things considered, its more likely, statistically speaking, to make 5 bowls in a row than it is to win 1 conference championship.

    To win five championships in a row, 0.0004%.

    The weird thing is, its about 25x more likely that we would have won at least one conference championship in 5 years than to win 5 straight bowls.

    So why haven't we?

  2. #347
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    Re: 2018-19 Bowl Games

    Quote Originally Posted by FriscoDawg View Post
    Conference USA wins the Bowl Challenge Cup as the only conference that wins more than 60% of its bowl games.

    They don't ask how. They ask how many.
    Yes indeed!!!!

  3. #348
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    Re: 2018-19 Bowl Games

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dawg View Post
    Based on the number of bowl games and total teams each year, the chances of making a bowl 5 times in a row is about 10%. The chance of winning 5 straight is about 0.3%. Thats not bad, to be honest.

    The overall percentage of teams winning conference championships is...7%.

    All things considered, its more likely, statistically speaking, to make 5 bowls in a row than it is to win 1 conference championship.

    To win five championships in a row, 0.0004%.

    The weird thing is, its about 25x more likely that we would have won at least one conference championship in 5 years than to win 5 straight bowls.

    So why haven't we?
    Probably more than one reason for our lack of championships.

    Here are a few off the top of my head. First, as Tech52 and HogDawg pointed out a few posts ago the QB position has a huge inpact on games. We played against a third team QB in one bowl win. And, played another game against a team trying to play two QB's hoping one might actually play well enough to win. Thankfully neither were up to the task. In another of our wins we played against a team coached by a member of the student body.

    Most teams today make bowl games. Teams playing in the early season bowl games are not very good teams. Just look at the scores during the first 10-15 days of bowl season. Very lopsided scores as many of the teams playing those are not very good.

    You only have to be decent on one day to win a bowl game, or not suck as bad as your opponent. To win a conference championship you have to play well for a couple of months to even play in the championship game. When we played well enough to make the championship game, we just couldn't win that big game.

    Next year springs another opportunity and new hope though!

    Good job on five wins in five years though.

  4. #349
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    Re: 2018-19 Bowl Games

    Quote Originally Posted by Bulldog Tom View Post
    Probably more than one reason for our lack of championships.

    Here are a few off the top of my head. First, as Tech52 and HogDawg pointed out a few posts ago the QB position has a huge inpact on games. We played against a third team QB in one bowl win. And, played another game against a team trying to play two QB's hoping one might actually play well enough to win. Thankfully neither were up to the task. In another of our wins we played against a team coached by a member of the student body.

    Most teams today make bowl games. Teams playing in the early season bowl games are not very good teams. Just look at the scores during the first 10-15 days of bowl season. Very lopsided scores as many of the teams playing those are not very good.

    You only have to be decent on one day to win a bowl game, or not suck as bad as your opponent. To win a conference championship you have to play well for a couple of months to even play in the championship game. When we played well enough to make the championship game, we just couldn't win that big game.

    Next year springs another opportunity and new hope though!

    Good job on five wins in five years though.
    I agree with some of what you are saying, but don't get some of the logic:

    You state that most teams make bowl games - There are 40(?) bowls, so 80 out of 127(?) get a bowl, if all qualify. I guess that counts as "most", but it isn't a gimme - as we know very well.

    You state that the early bowls have bad teams and cite the lopsided scores. That would mean some of them are bad, but the team that wins those with a lopsided score may be pretty good, I would argue.

    We are strange how we state there are too many bowls. Before there were this many, G5 teams were getting left out a LOT.

    Also, I don't buy the excuses for how we won. We won because we were the better team on that day. There were times when we had players out too - even starters. I don't think we have ever had a QB out, so that is good. In one of those games, you state we beat two of their best QB's - you just didn't word it that way.

    I do agree that you have to be good on one day (not decent, but good) to win a bowl game. I really agree with your point about conference championships, though!

  5. #350
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    Re: 2018-19 Bowl Games

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dawg View Post
    The weird thing is, its about 25x more likely that we would have won at least one conference championship in 5 years than to win 5 straight bowls.

    So why haven't we?
    I think it's because none of the 5 bowl teams we played were as good as the Marshall and WKU teams we played in the championship games.

  6. #351
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    Re: 2018-19 Bowl Games

    Quote Originally Posted by T1 View Post
    I think it's because none of the 5 bowl teams we played were as good as the Marshall and WKU teams we played in the championship games.
    Could be, but neither of those teams were that much better or any better than us those years. Without Skippy’s typical WTF game or 2, we are hosting both of those championship games and I think the outcome would have been different.

  7. #352
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    Re: 2018-19 Bowl Games

    Quote Originally Posted by techman05 View Post
    Could be, but neither of those teams were that much better or any better than us those years. Without Skippy’s typical WTF game or 2, we are hosting both of those championship games and I think the outcome would have been different.
    Agree, they were close games but both those teams finished in the Top 25. Navy was the only bowl team who approached that.

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    Re: 2018-19 Bowl Games

    Quote Originally Posted by T1 View Post
    Agree, they were close games but both those teams finished in the Top 25. Navy was the only bowl team who approached that.
    SMU was a top 25 team, weren't they? Of course, they had just switched coaches right before our bowl game.

  9. #354
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    Re: 2018-19 Bowl Games

    Quote Originally Posted by champion110 View Post
    SMU was a top 25 team, weren't they? Of course, they had just switched coaches right before our bowl game.
    Nah. Here's the Sagarin Ratings of CUSA championship teams and bowl teams:

    CUSA Championship Teams
    21. WKU (58-44, Loss)
    26. Marshall (26-23, Loss)

    Bowl Teams
    54. Navy (45-42, Win)
    82. SMU (51-10, Win)
    84. Arkansas St (47-28, Win)
    88. Illinois (35-19, Win)
    118. Hawaii (31-14, Win)

  10. #355
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    Re: 2018-19 Bowl Games

    Quote Originally Posted by T1 View Post
    I think it's because none of the 5 bowl teams we played were as good as the Marshall and WKU teams we played in the championship games.


    Your statement above would be backed up by the Sagarin Ratings. Of the five teams we've beaten in our bowl streak, Navy, in 2016, had the highest final Sagarin Ranking at #61.

    Marshall, in 2014 had a final Sagarin Ranking of #23 (our ranking was #34, our highest final Sagarin Ranking ever).

    Western Kentucky, in 2016, had a final Sagarin Ranking of #19, by far their highest ever (our final ranking was #59).

    It was just our luck to catch both teams at peak performance.

  11. #356
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    Re: 2018-19 Bowl Games

    I use the Sagarin Predictor rating because that's the rating that gives the best prediction of the matchups... very similar to the Vegas lines.

  12. #357
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    Re: 2018-19 Bowl Games

    Quote Originally Posted by Tech77 View Post
    Marshall has won 7 straight bowl games they played in, but they did it over 10 years, missing out on a bowl 3 times during that period.
    True, but part of the accomplishment is qualifying for a bowl consistently...EVERY YEAR! Marshall is good at winning bowl games, just look at their history. But they mixed in some 4-8 type seasons so they are disqualified from this accomplishment.

  13. #358
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    Re: 2018-19 Bowl Games

    Quote Originally Posted by dawg80 View Post
    True, but part of the accomplishment is qualifying for a bowl consistently...EVERY YEAR! Marshall is good at winning bowl games, just look at their history. But they mixed in some 4-8 type seasons so they are disqualified from this accomplishment.
    Yep. I agree.
    Good old Memorial Gym

  14. #359
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    Re: 2018-19 Bowl Games

    Quote Originally Posted by CaseyDawg View Post
    The 2020 winter classic being held in the Cotton Bowl is likely to preclude this bowl from being held in the Cotton Bowl in 2019 (unless it is moved to before Christmas). SMU might be an option, or does another city make a bid to ESPN to host.
    Saturday, December 21, is probably the latest that the game could be played in the Cotton Bowl as they usually take 7-10 days to get the rink built and ice installed for outdoor games. That would be the first bowl Saturday of 2019 with the Army-Navy game on December 14.

    Considering it was mid-to-upper 30's in Dallas yesterday, next year will probably be sunny and 60. Perfect hockey weather.

    If they can play hockey in Dodger Stadium (as they have), they can make it work in the Cotton Bowl unless there is rain and/or lightning.

  15. #360
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    Re: 2018-19 Bowl Games

    Quote Originally Posted by techman05 View Post
    This season we had 5 home games and one of those was a scrimmage vs Southern. If we had at least 5 home games a year all vs FBS opponents with the occasional 6th home game vs FBS we could play another P5 game. We are not even close to making the same money for a home game as the payout for a P5 game. Or at least get neutral site games vs P5. Look at the success of Boise and UCF and big schools still demand that they bow to them and do things their way. I would be okay with 5 good home games if we always has a neutral site or away game that was 4-6 hours from Ruston.
    There is a doable solution to have 6 home games/yr - 5 against FBS - but few would like it and I don't know if it would be profitable.

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