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Thread: Collegiate realignment, round 2?

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    Ncaa Collegiate realignment, round 2?

    After the disruption and chaos earlier this decade, is another cycle of conference movement inevitable or will this period of calmer heads and stability continue?

    https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/...ge-sports.aspx

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    Re: Collegiate realignment, round 2?

    The article totally ignored a significant factor that could upset everything. I have read articles where Facebook, Amazon, Netflix & Google could make a play for TV rights. Any one of them has more cash money available than all of the traditional networks put together. And they have expressed an interest. Facebook, for one, is already streaming some games. No one knows what this could mean.

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    Re: Collegiate realignment, round 2?

    Quote Originally Posted by tenacious_dog View Post
    The article totally ignored a significant factor that could upset everything. I have read articles where Facebook, Amazon, Netflix & Google could make a play for TV rights. Any one of them has more cash money available than all of the traditional networks put together. And they have expressed an interest. Facebook, for one, is already streaming some games. No one knows what this could mean.
    I heard about this from Netflix this morning. This is sick money...

    https://www.bustle.com/p/19-netflix-...celebs-9759603

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    Re: Collegiate realignment, round 2?

    Please, please keep the politically biased social media of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix & Google etc. out of sports TV rights. Dang ESPN has become bad enough!

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    Re: Collegiate realignment, round 2?

    TV rights will go to the high bidder. One big concern is the social media entities may go after the bigger big name schools and not conferences, which could lead to the shattering of the conferences as we know it. The potential exists that what's coming could be way more disruptive that the last go round.

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    Re: Collegiate realignment, round 2?

    You can bet Texas will be the first as they already have their own network. Easy move for them.

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    Re: Collegiate realignment, round 2?

    Quote Originally Posted by tenacious_dog View Post
    TV rights will go to the high bidder. One big concern is the social media entities may go after the bigger big name schools and not conferences, which could lead to the shattering of the conferences as we know it. The potential exists that what's coming could be way more disruptive that the last go round.
    And if that's the case - schools like Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, Miss St, TCU, Kansas, K-State, Iowa, Iowa St, Washington St etal will be up shee-at creek without a paddle - population and alumni bases will drive that bus and poor populations and/or small alumni basis and population bases will be a death knell
    ''Don't be a bad dagh..."

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    Re: Collegiate realignment, round 2?

    Quote Originally Posted by tech70 View Post
    You can bet Texas will be the first as they already have their own network. Easy move for them.
    ESPN has the Longhorns rights until 2031 (I believe)

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    Re: Collegiate realignment, round 2?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwayne From Minden View Post
    And if that's the case - schools like Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, Miss St, TCU, Kansas, K-State, Iowa, Iowa St, Washington St etal will be up shee-at creek without a paddle - population and alumni bases will drive that bus and poor populations and/or small alumni basis and population bases will be a death knell
    That's why people in the business are worried about the P5 conferences surviving. If this thing unravels, there could be a lot of schools with huge debt that will lose the ability to service their debt and cause a collegiate financial crisis. So just to have a little fun with this, what might come out of this situation that avoids an apocalypse....

    Well, this could be the engine to moving to an 8 team (or higher #) playoff as the means to saving the current P5 conference system. Otherwise, the big media entities may cherry pick the big schools and essentially build their own conferences and national championship. Possibly without the NCAA even being included. So the teams that are in the P5 that stand to get passed by, might want to get on board.

    Then there's how this will hit the G5 schools. What's coming may be really bad for the G5.....or.....it might be what we've been needing to get a leg up. It could help build a serious anti-trust case if there's not some kind of formula to assure all D1 teams have a legitimate shot (ie win your conference championship). Mike Leech's recent comments hit on that, that having tournaments ain't rocket science. Every other sport at every level has a "play-in" championship system EXCEPT D1 college football. Going to be hard to defend if even bigger money comes into the system, and they expand to 8, but the G5s don't get a sniff at participating. Sounds arbitrary, financially unfair and very protectionist/monopolistic!

    So, maybe we end up with having all the D1 conference champions plus a handful of "wildcard" teams play a 16 team/4 week playoff. Just like every other sport in college or the pro's. Maybe the regular season gets shortened by a week or two. Maybe not. But the money that could come out of the playoffs could be huge and way more than what is coming through the various irrelevant bowls. And if the system gets in place before the internet media companies come calling, maybe what we get will resemble what we've had, just with a real champion at the end.

    Or we could have mayhem.
    Mayhem.jpg

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    Re: Collegiate realignment, round 2?

    Quote Originally Posted by tenacious_dog View Post
    Otherwise, the big media entities may cherry pick the big schools and essentially build their own conferences and national championship. Possibly without the NCAA even being included.
    The NCAA is not included in the current FBS championship.

    Otherwise, your point stands.

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    Re: Collegiate realignment, round 2?

    Quote Originally Posted by Champ967 View Post
    The NCAA is not included in the current FBS championship.

    Otherwise, your point stands.
    What I was thinking was the large schools might exit the NCAA for football purposes to get away from their restrictions and rules.

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    Re: Collegiate realignment, round 2?

    Quote Originally Posted by tenacious_dog View Post
    What I was thinking was the large schools might exit the NCAA for football purposes to get away from their restrictions and rules.
    I know you considered MBB, but just in case...

    https://www.sbnation.com/college-bas...ent-every-year

    The NCAA is the deep state of "amateur" sports. They will likely keep adjusting the rules to fit the needs of the haves while the have nots try to keep up. Notice some of the have nots use MBB as a source of income while others ignore the importance of MBB as it relates to income. That's what a horrible conference commissioner and AD will get you.

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    Re: Collegiate realignment, round 2?

    I think that the Power Five Conferences will hold pat or only pick up two more schools then either split off or distance themselves from the G5 conferences. The era of big tv contracts may be dead and gone. The market proved that college sports was vastly overvalued. The real shake up is gonna be the G5. The AAC was built as an incubator to compete for those last two spots. Once it becomes evident that those spots are filled or will never open, I just don't see how they could maintain themselves as a Conference. I mean how is there long term viability with a conference that stretches from Dallas/Houston to Connecticut back on down to Orlando/Tampa?? Once the money dries up there will be a huge shakeup with CUSA, AAC, MAC and the Sunbelt. The MWC may pick up one or two teams but the are pretty much self-contained.

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    Re: Collegiate realignment, round 2?

    The Power 5 conferences are not going to change anything anytime soon. Why should they? Every year they earn easy money from big conference TV contracts, they control 100% of the access to the Big 6 bowl money games and they completely control the College Football playoff system. For all intents an purposes, they also control the media (as it relates to college football) and most of the valuable brands. Furthermore, they've got a compliant G5 group of schools that are willing to supply game-day fodder for their homecoming and other OOC home scheduling appearances that mostly keep their OOC "losses" to a minimum.

    It's already a pretty good gig, if you are a P5. Why take the risk of doing something else?

    IMO, there will be very few changes in the P5 college football structure until college football is eventually invaded by the "high tech takeover", in year 2025, or later. As I've posted before, we will eventually see Google, Apple, NetFlix, Roku, etc... establishing revenue sharing joint ventures with the true Top 20 or so college football powers. These joint ventures will provide on-going content for those who need it (e.g., Netflix, Amazon Prime, HULU, etc...) and establish strong name brand recognition and ties between the schools and the corporations (which will appeal to advertisers and subscribers.) Think AT&T & the Dallas Cowboys, but on a much larger scale. We haven't seen this kind of investment in college football, but it's coming. An make no mistake, these companies have a lot of money. THEY CAN AFFORD IT! But the media war between all these high tech companies is just beginning, and the markets just aren't ready yet.

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    Re: Collegiate realignment, round 2?

    I was just listening to Dan Patrick on 97.7 talking about the California pay-for-play bill. It was pretty interesting. Somethings Patrick had to say on the topic of pay-for-play and realignment:

    1) According to Patrick, in California to qualify for pay-for-play a university has to have $10 mil or more in media revenue. Which means it only applies to USC, UCLA, Cal & Stanford. He said other state legislatures are discussing similar laws, like South Carolina. He expects all of the P5 conference members are going to push for equivalent legislation in their states.
    2) As this moves forward, he expects it won't be long before the top 60 P5 split off from the NCAA and have their own organization because they're "in the business to make money and the rest of collegiate football isn't". So let the NCAA take care of them and the P5 will do its own thing.
    3) The top 60 P5 membership will move to a "play-in" situation where the top G-5 school each year will move up to the P5 and the bottom P5 school will move down to the G-5. Patrick thinks this will inject a lot of interest into a new NCAA G-5 championship because the winner is moving up and the loser isn't.

    I can see the pay-for-play thing will take a couple of years to shake out. In Louisiana, I won't be surprised for it to come up in our legislature next year. Just about the time that gets worked out, the P5 media rights thing will be on the horizon (which puts the FANG money issue on the table):

    https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19743196/why-2023-next-big-date-conference-shuffling

    W
    hether or not what Dan Patrick has everything right, changes are coming because more money is about to begin getting injected into college athletics, especially football. More than likely we'll look back and see the California pay-for-play law marked the beginning of the next phase.
    Last edited by tenacious_dog; 10-01-2019 at 11:34 AM.

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