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Thread: Collegiate realignment, round 2?

  1. #16
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    Re: Collegiate realignment, round 2?

    Quote Originally Posted by tenacious_dog View Post
    I was just listening to Dan Patrick on 97.7 talking about the California pay-for-play bill. It was pretty interesting. Somethings Patrick had to say on the topic of pay-for-play and realignment:

    1) According to Patrick, in California to qualify for pay-for-play a university has to have $10 mil or more in media revenue. Which means it only applies to USC, UCLA, Cal & Stanford. He said other state legislatures are discussing similar laws, like South Carolina. He expects all of the P5 conference members are going to push for equivalent legislation in their states.
    2) As this moves forward, he expects it won't be long before the top 60 P5 split off from the NCAA and have their own organization because they're "in the business to make money and the rest of collegiate football isn't". So let the NCAA take care of them and the P5 will do its own thing.
    3) The top 60 P5 membership will move to a "play-in" situation where the top G-5 school each year will move up to the P5 and the bottom P5 school will move down to the G-5. Patrick thinks this will inject a lot of interest into a new NCAA G-5 championship because the winner is moving up and the loser isn't.

    I can see the pay-for-play thing will take a couple of years to shake out. In Louisiana, I won't be surprised for it to come up in our legislature next year. Just about the time that gets worked out, the P5 media rights thing will be on the horizon (which puts the FANG money issue on the table):

    https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19743196/why-2023-next-big-date-conference-shuffling

    W
    hether or not what Dan Patrick has everything right, changes are coming because more money is about to begin getting injected into to college athletics, especially football. More than likely we'll look back and see the California pay-for-play law marked the beginning of the next phase.
    The California governor is on the show with him now. Doug Gotlieb was also on with him earlier in the show. Keep in mind, Dan Patrick was just throwing ideas out there how he thinks what should happen. He has a national radio show but knows little about college sports.

    The school presidents move at a glacial pace. Nebraska moving to the Big 10 and Colorado moving to the Pac 12 are revolutionary moves for them. The idea that they're just going to leave the NCAA is just outside the realm of reality.

    The next round of realignment is in 2024-25. That's when the TV contracts signed by most of the P5 schools after 2010 begin to expire. Realignment will be dictated by the amount of money involved and where it's coming from. Will Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc... be involved? Or perhaps they won't be involved at all!!!

    Will the P5 become the P4? Or will the P5 actually expand because each of the P5 leagues has to provide more content to the Amazons and Googles of the world? That will impact what is now the G5. Just like it did in 2000. Just like it did in 2003. And just like it did in 2011.
    Last edited by The Historian; 10-01-2019 at 12:58 PM.

  2. #17
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    Re: Collegiate realignment, round 2?

    Quote Originally Posted by The Historian View Post
    The California governor is on the show with him now. Doug Gotlieb was also on with him earlier in the show. Keep in mind, Dan Patrick was just throwing ideas out there how he thinks what should happen. He has a national radio show but knows little about college sports.

    The school presidents move at a glacial pace. Nebraska moving to the Big 10 and Colorado moving to the Pac 12 are revolutionary moves for them. The idea that they're just going to leave the NCAA is just outside the realm of reality.

    The next round of realignment is in 2024-25. That's when the TV contracts signed by most of the P5 schools after 2010 begin to expire. Realignment will be dictated by the amount of money involved and where it's coming from. Will Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc... be involved? Or perhaps they won't be involved at all!!!

    Will the P5 become the P4? Or will the P5 actually expand because each of the P5 leagues has to provide more content to the Amazons and Googles of the world? That will impact what is now the G5. Just like it did in 2000. Just like it did in 2003. And just like it did in 2011.
    I get that the presidents move really slowly. So they'll put it off until they can't because contracts have to be signed. Because so many P5 schools have heavy athletic debt, while there may be gnashing of teeth and deep philosophical discussions, I won't be at all surprised to see a solid majority of P5 presidents decide to do the money grab / NCAA exit (Nexit??). So the rest of them hold their noses with one hand and take the money with the other because they can't afford to be left behind. But like you say it's still a little ways off and a lot has to happen. (I think it starts in 2023.)

    The pay-for-play thing is going to be the big deal for now. I think it has to have an impact on what realignment looks like when it gets going.

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