The PLA hasn’t fared well when they have been in combat. Numbers don’t mean much when they don’t fight.
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The PLA hasn’t fared well when they have been in combat. Numbers don’t mean much when they don’t fight.
Pundits say China is within three years of being 100% ready to attempt the invasion of Taiwan. Their continued build-up and improvements to their military is on pace to have them ready to launch an all-out attack by the spring of 2027. However, that assumes that Taiwan and her allies only maintain their current pace of build-up. If Taiwan and her allies (the US, Japan, Australia, mostly...) increase the pace then China will have to take longer than 3 years to overcome the current advantage.
One source says China better be prepared to lose 1 million soldiers/sailors just trying to get onto Taiwan and hundreds of thousands more after that trying to secure it. And then hold it? Would the Western allies attempt to retake Taiwan and evict the Chicoms if they ever seize it?
Much like the evil Putin and his plans, it is just plain stupid for Xi, or any Chicom leader, to seriously try to invade Taiwan. Why do it? Just establish a good relationship, become trading partners, and both will benefit from the relationship. You catch more flies with honey than with vinegar.
China is about to launch a drone carrier, the world's first dedicated carrier for drones. It is the wave of the future, both on land and the sea. Not known how large the human crew will be but obviously you don't need pilots.
By the end of 2025 China will have 400 navy vessels, the US will be down to 280, thanks to Biden et al. We currently have 310 vessels, but the Biden admin has gutted the Pentagon's budget, including the navy's. Fortunately, while the US has been shrinking, our allies have been building. Japan and Australia have taken the lead in standing up to the bully that is China, and other nations, like The Philippines, Taiwan, and South Korea have all enlarged and improved their navies. And India remains the wildcard! They have publicly stated they are not in cahoots with "The Quads" any longer, as they were when Trump was POTUS, but it is even clearer they are no friend of China. If push comes to shove, in an actual war, India will join us in fighting the Chicoms. Like other nations in that region, India has a lot to lose if the Chicoms get their wish.
I think when Trump takes office in January, 2025, he will again travel to India and get them to formally rejoin The Quads. It's in their best interest. Right now India looks at the US, specifically our diapered "leader," and decided to reduce the tension between them and China by publicly distancing themselves from the anti-China forces. Who can blame them? Not only is Biden a joke, but led by the stupid Marjorie Green our allies don't think they can trust Congress to stand with them either.
India is stepping up to the plate. They have finalized their new naval doctrine with plans to have a modern 175-ship fleet by the end of 2025. All designed to stand up to the Chicoms. India has also established two new bases, with plans to expand them, and they sit directly on the key shipping routes that see 90,000 ships using per year, close to 35% of the world's commerce, 40% of offshore oil production. And the bases cover two narrow straits that navies would have to use in the case of war in the Indian Ocean and that portion of the Pacific Ocean.
One pundit predicts China would defeat Taiwan in one hour. Bold prediction for sure. He points out the Chicoms' plans and their preparation, which is underway in earnest right now, designed to deliver first strikes in overwhelming numbers.
China is right now, today, converting 75 civilian ferryboats into military amphibious vessels that will carry tanks and troops and be armed with an array of offensive and defensive weapons. These boats will augment their regular amphibious landing craft of which China has 180 at latest report. The shores of Taiwan are mountainous, there are only two beaches, both small, suitable for a D-Day type landing and Taiwan has those heavily defended. So, instead, the Chinese will use rivers and ports as points of entry. These shallow draft civilian ferryboats are perfect for such an operation. The plan is to "park" these ferryboats off Taiwan's coast in international waters ready for the short sprint to their targets. Of course, Taiwan could take this out but that would mean Taiwan firing the first shots and starting the war that China wants so badly. China is banking on Taiwan not being proactive.
In one hour Taiwan would be subdued, according to this expert. I don't buy that, not at all. His scenario has everything, and I mean, everything going 100% right for the Chinese and that never happens in a war. The Taiwanese are well-prepared and actually predictions like this, with actual intelligence about China's preparations, is helping Taiwan tweak their defenses in anticipation of such scenarios.
Okay, maybe not in an hour, but let's say China is successful, or appears to be about to be successful, say in a couple of days or so. What will the US and our allies do? This pundit claims the entire US Pacific fleet will be targeted in a first strike by China, while not destroying every ship but at least rendering the US fleet ineffective to launch a counter-strike. Our allies, namely Japan and Australia, will not have sufficient might on their own to interdict a Chicom invasion of Taiwan. Then, if all of this happens, or appears to be about to happen, what will the US do? I know the lunatic isolationists like MTG and Rand Paul will be screaming to stay out of it. But Taiwan produces 70% of the world's microchips. HELLO! Actually, in the event of a total collapse of their military, Taiwan has already said they will destroy their microchip plants to prevent the Chicoms getting them. That will wreck the microchip supply plunging the world into a severe economic crisis.
Xi is another tyrant bent on selfish gains without regard for the millions of lives that will be lost or the crisis the world will experience. He only understands strength and steadfastness and that means the US, together with our loyal allies, must stand firm against the evil commie bastard. Putin sensed weakness with Biden in the WH and launched his ill-fated invasion, and even though he is failing, look at the damage he's done. A Chicom invasion of Taiwan will have far worse consequences.
Japanese navy vessels chased off Chicom ships near the southern tip of the Senkaku Islands, which are Japanese sovereign territory. The Senkaku is a series of volcanic-formed islands which includes Okinawa, a large, key island in the chain. The southern-most Senkaku island is about 200 miles north of Taiwan, which indicates China's interest in seizing the landmass. The Chicoms hope to establish a base on the island, from which, it could launch attacks against Taiwan. This most recent incident included 10 Chinese vessels with five amphibious vessels with the capacity to land Chinese marines and equipment. Japanese frigates and a destroyer were dispatched to confront the Chinese vessels. The Japanese issued warnings that said vessels would be seized, their crews detained and/or fired on if resistance occurred. The Chicoms took the warnings seriously and vacated Japanese waters, retreating back into international waters, by the time the Japanese vessels arrived. The commander of the Chicom task force never responded, did not communicate with the Japanese commander who requested acknowledgement of the warnings, and Beijing has remained silent as well.
1 Can Taiwan take out the Three Gorges Dam? Would it, if it could? Can they affectively demonstrate to China that it is possible? Mutually Assured Destruction.
2 Can Taiwan make the Taiwan strait un-navigable ? Can they put so many mines in it to make it possible to walk from China to Taiwan without getting wet?
3 Can Taiwan pre-place small tactical nukes near China's many shipyards?
4 Would they use EMPs to just shut the whole theater down?
5 Should they arm all civilians that are willing? Arm them like the U.S. population is? Heck, just being statistical, if China lost one soldier to 3 civies, that would devastate their forces.
That's just off the top of my head in 10 minutes. I'm sure Taiwan has thought of much better defensive and MAD scenarios over the decades.
I just don't see the Chinese ROI in this. They can steal the chip technology like they are doing with other technologies, or just buy it.
On the latter, yep, all the Chicoms have to do is steal the technology and then build more slave-labor factories to manufacture them. In the bigger picture though, they could also acquire the technology simply by being a good neighbor and peaceful world citizen. In other words, play nice in the sandbox.Originally Posted by DJDAWG
The Chicoms claim they will mine the China South Sea plus all the straits that connect it to the Pacific Ocean, to keep the US Navy and our allies out. They claim to have 100 million mines ready to be deployed. Whoa! that'll keep our minesweepers busy. Of course, Taiwan has plans to mine the strait that the Chicoms will have to cross to attack them. Taiwan is also building sea drones, like the ones Ukraine has perfected, that will wreak havoc with the Chicom fleet.
You offer some good points/suggestions. The US has finally provided long-range missiles to Taiwan making most of Mainland China a target. Taiwan has developed its own domestic military industrial base and is producing weapons all designed to defend it against a Chicom attack. Taiwan is quite literally "fortress Taiwan," the whole island nation is one big military establishment. Bunkers, tunnels running for miles and miles connecting key military and civilian infrastructure, and the natural terrain, Taiwan has mountains on its coasts, makes attack difficult, defense far easier. Military pundits say when Ukraine gets the 80 F-16s promised to them, Putin is finished. Well, Taiwan already has 165 F-16s and the trained pilots to fly them. They also have other fighter jets and attack fighter-bombers. And! their own domestically built Bluehawk helicopters. Last report I saw they have 40 of these choppers and are building more. What is so special about a helicopter? Well, they are helicopters, yes, but really they are weapons' platforms that can deliver a barrage of anti-aircraft missiles, each copter carrying 40 state-of-the-art rockets, plus an automatic 30mm cannon. These Bluehawks are kept in underground hardened bunkers, a series of 90+ such installations, connected by tunnels. They move the Bluehawks around, unseen, so the Chicoms won't know in which bunkers the copters are. These weapons' platforms are designed to pop up, hover and release their barrage of rockets at incoming Chicom aircraft, and then quickly duck back in to avoid being hit and to re-arm, to emerge again.
Taiwan also has thousands of anti-aircraft batteries and missile launchers placed all over the island, most in protected bunkers. The Taiwanese army has come under some criticism, some pundits saying it is not ready to "take on the Chinese Red Army." It is true the Taiwan army has older equipment, like the US M60 tank, which is Vietnam era, actually introduced in 1959. But it sports an updated 105mm main gun and its electronics, armor, and the engine have all been upgraded. The Taiwanese M60 is far superior to the Chinese main battle tank. So, even if the Chicoms manage to land some tanks in an invasion, they will be no match for the Taiwanese M60s. And, no, Taiwan can't match the Chicom Red Army man for man. But, as we have seen in Ukraine, superior numbers don't guarantee victory on the battlefield.
Also, keep in mind, in any scenario Taiwan will be on the defensive, so for instance, their F-16s can carry far more munitions than their Chicom counterparts, as the Chinese planes will have to sacrifice armaments to carry the weight of extra fuel just to get to Taiwan. Oh...and the Taiwanese will not be fighting alone. They have allies who will join the fray.
You are right, the ROI for China is practically non-existent.
Taiwan is building four more coastal missile bases, armed with anti-ship Harpoon missiles and Patriot anti-aircraft and their own domestically built anti-aircraft missiles. Additionally, the bases will have structures that extend out into the water to launch torpedoes from. Long-range artillery and anti-aircraft batteries will also be positioned. The bases will have their own electronic monitoring systems, radar and sonar, as well as be connected to the wider Taiwanese defense network.
Meanwhile, China's President Xi released a statement saying the US is trying to goad him into launching an invasion of Taiwan, but claims he has no such plans. GASLIGHTING alert!
In a recent poll, over 70% of the people in Taiwan say they are "Taiwanese" not "Chinese." Not sure what the other 30% think they are.
"They would never be so bold..." was the general sentiment on the prospects of a Chicom invasion prior to 2022. But in light of Putin's aggression the Taiwanese people now think an invasion is imminent. This has spurred a renewed patriotic fervor and heretofore complacency on military preparedness has turned to heightened attention to ramping up the defenses. The biggest difference has been the attitude toward mandatory military training, which all young men are required to attend. In years past the show-up rate for the six-week camps was less than 40% with young men preferring to pay a small fine. But this summer the camps have been at full capacity and there is a tremendous enthusiasm.
India is leading the way, and acting on its own behalf, by building coalitions, quads, standing up to China. Most recently India signed defense pacts with Philippines, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka designed as anti-Chicoms. More than just defense measures, but also economic and cultural agreements. India has also strengthened its border defenses and told China they will not tolerate more incursions. India is also making overtures to Pakistan which has been cozying up to China.
India is very independent but remains friendly with western nations, including the US, and our allies like Japan and Australia. India knows China's true nature...snakes...and by focusing on their interests are also serving ours, especially in the Pacific region.
And remember, it was Trump who formed these mutual defense agreements, now called "quads" as it was four nations in the first formal agreement.
Japan and Australia hosted a meeting, well the meeting was in Australia, and both Japan and Australia were the leaders at the conference. The US had only a token representation but was not an active participant, there to gather information and give Joe Biden's "thumbs up" with a "good job, fellows." The US has surrendered the leadership role in the anti-China "quads" organization, with Japan and Australia assuming the mantle. Now, some will say this is great (Tucker Carlson is as happy as a lark) as this is a Pacific-region matter and our allies there SHOULD be taking the lead on a comprehensive/joint defense plan. I don't disagree. What I don't like is the seemingly passive/arms-length approach of the Biden/Harris administration.
Biden did not dissolve or otherwise impact Trump's Quads, and in fact, in his first year in office, Biden made an effort to strengthen the US's participation with tangible aid and involvement in planning sessions. Since then, the Biden administration has been noticeably absent, and this is why Japan/Australia have stepped up to fill the leadership void. India has separated from the Trump Quad (US, India, Japan, and Australia) which was the first such joint agreement, in favor of forming their own "quads" with them in the leadership role. India did renew its commitment to a regional "NATO" plan, if one member is attacked by China (sans Taiwan), they all will react. But, India wanted Taiwan left out of that agreement, and agreed to other nations being involved, including the Philippines. India is doing its own thing. As the 3rd largest/powerful military in the world (behind the US and China) India wields enormous clout and can get what it wants.
The US needs a strong presence in the Pacific region, and we need to wield our own clout. And! we need to get into Africa and start nudging China out.
Happy to report that India has rejoined the original QUAD. India just announced it will be cooperating with the US, Japan, and Australia stepping up naval presence in the South China Sea to check the bullying of China aimed at the Philippines and the threats against Taiwan. This is good news. Now, is this because India can read the tea leaves and knows that Trump will be POTUS again? Or, maybe they have just circled back to this because being an active member in the anti-Chicom QUAD is very much in their best interest. In either case it is obvious that the Biden/Harris administration has had nothing to do with this positive occurrence. To emphasize the main point...and I would be posting this even if Biden/Harris had something to do with it...it is HUGE to have India back in the original QUAD. Said QUAD orchestrated by President Trump.
As I have posted, India is very much an independent nation, an independent thinking and acting nation. They do not anything for the sake of another country's best interest. They PUT INDIA FIRST! Which is why they sometimes do things that we Americans might find perplexing, questioning their alliances. But they know who their true friends are and who they should be leery of.
In related news, China went nuts with the recent passage of other nations' warships through the South China Sea. Namely a Norwegian frigate, a German destroyer, and now an Italian aircraft carrier and escorts. China thinks the South China Sea is a lake, their lake, to control 100%. But the world keeps clearly demonstrating it doesn't agree and is not willing to give up an important chunk of international waters. All these various countries are not sending their warships through the South China Sea just "because." But rather it is intended to send a very definite message to the Chicoms, that nope! the world will not be giving up these waters.
The show 60 Minutes (CBS) did a piece recently on the Chicoms' bullying of the Philippines. I was very pleased with the segment. It was very anti-Chicom and pro-freedom loving peoples. For CBS it was quite the production.
Yes, Biden is hosting the three world leaders "reforming" the QUAD in a conference being held in Delaware. This is a good thing. Domestic politics aside, it is CRITICAL that the US work with our allies to check all the bad actors in the world. So, I am glad this is happening. But, here's the truth (now with a dose of domestic politics), this meeting was orchestrated by the out-going PM of Japan who wanted to assure the QUAD would be in place since he was leaving office, and the US would have a new POTUS next year. The other leaders suggested the US (Biden) host this conference to keep Biden from having to endure traveling. Biden is not responsible for this conference happening.
And in the story, being circulated via the wire, such as AP and others, the only reference to the origin of this QUAD reads "the QUAD was formed in 2017." Trump is not mentioned at all, not given credit for being the VERY REASON, the QUAD was formed in 2017. This is Trump's baby! He is the reason the QUAD was formed in 2017. And of course, this reformation would not be happening if India was not agreeable, and the PM of Japan had not pulled this together.
Naturally, the clueless Sleepy Joe will be given credit, and by extension the lamestream media will try to attach this success to Harris too.
For the first time since 1945 a Japanese warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait into the South China Sea. A Jap destroyer was escorted by several warships from Australia and a supply ship from New Zealand. New Zealand is not officially part of the QUAD, but their defense minister made it clear, for obvious reasons, they stand with Australia.
Japanese fighters have been busy chasing off both Chicom and Russian planes infringing into Japanese airspace around some islands. Russia says Japan does not own an island chain that Japan has occupied for over 600 years. If they don't own it, who does? Jap F-16s fired "dummy" rockets at the Russian scout planes, and a lone bomber. These rockets are like fireworks, they display lots of flash but will not harm a plane, if they happen to hit one. They are used as a very visual warning. The Jap F-16 pilots radioed the Russian pilots saying they were out of the "dummy rockets" all they had left were real ones...your move. Minutes later the Russian planes all turned and departed Japanese airspace.
Back in 1991 I was on a commercial flight departing Alaska bound for Hong Kong. We were over the Bering Strait when Russian fighter jets decided to "play with us." A US carrier was nearby and sent four F-14 Tomcats to chase the Russian Migs away. It was quite a show, I watched the fighters circle each other, disappearing into clouds and popping out again. Over us, under us and all of this for a good 20-25 minutes. Finally, suddenly, all the planes were gone, never saw any of them again. Point is, this is standard "flexing of muscles," but something is going to happen one day, especially as tensions rise.
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