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Thread: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2019

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    65's Top 10 Worthless Poster Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Poll Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2019

    Starting a bit early this year to whet my whistle.



    One of you stock geniuses tell me if we're trending up or down.

    We finished 2018 with 1152 points (#49). If you recall, teams regress 25% towards 1000 after each season, leaving us with 1114 points (which is still within last years lower shadow).

    opp elo w%
    21 Texas 1317 18%
    Grambling 100%
    113 Bowling Green (OH) 557 95%
    77 Florida International 926 87%
    126 Rice (TX) 297 99%
    120 Massachusetts 452 99%
    79 Southern Mississippi 920 87%
    130 Texas-El Paso 220 99%
    82 North Texas 898 88%
    45 Marshall (WV) 1155 36%
    56 Alabama-Birmingham 1067 48%
    106 Texas-San Antonio 644 97%

    This gives us a projected record of 9.5-2.5.

    Adding a sure loss to USM and the scheduled WTF game, we should be looking at a 7.5-5.5 record. And that's not even counting if FIU and UNT turn out to be trouble.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2019

    I'll take 7-5...no, check that, 8-5 with our 6th straight bowl win!

    Dogsince65 should be proud...I have settled into acceptance of mediocrity, and it doesn't even bother me.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2019

    Love the chart. It confirms what I already had in mind that our strongest teams were 1990-1992, 1997-1999, 2012, and 2014 -2016. It is a little eye-opening that the last two years are as highly rated as they are. I guess I shouldn't bitch so much when the last five years have been the highest rated span in our Division 1 history.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Tech79 View Post
    Love the chart. It confirms what I already had in mind that our strongest teams were 1990-1992, 1997-1999, 2012, and 2014 -2016. It is a little eye-opening that the last two years are as highly rated as they are. I guess I shouldn't bitch so much when the last five years have been the highest rated span in our Division 1 history.
    What does it mean when we're actually experiencing a golden age of Tech football -- at least on the field -- yet our gameday experience has become numbingly dull?

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    65's Top 10 Worthless Poster Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Champ967 View Post
    What does it mean when we're actually experiencing a golden age of Tech football -- at least on the field -- yet our gameday experience has become numbingly dull?
    Looking at the data from all ~79k games that have ever been played the average Elo value has been dropping steadily since 1900. This major trend was reversed twice - in the 30s and then in the 80s, when the "good teams" left the trash in the dust.

    Because of the lower quality of the worst teams, it means that teams which play significant numbers of games against the bottom dwellers can experience the veneer of success. Wins against bad teams don't net you as much gain as wins against good teams, but they are still wins, and wins add up.

    However, while the chart shows that we are in a local uptrend, the fact remains that barely beating UTEP at home doesn't really sell tickets.

    Looking at the candlestick does not inspire confidence. This is not a stock I would buy and I think our gameday "investors" feel the same.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2019

    This is good stuff. thanks. And I thought ELO just made good music.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Tech79 View Post
    Love the chart. It confirms what I already had in mind that our strongest teams were 1990-1992, 1997-1999, 2012, and 2014 -2016. It is a little eye-opening that the last two years are as highly rated as they are. I guess I shouldn't bitch so much when the last five years have been the highest rated span in our Division 1 history.
    Performance wise, I think LA Tech peaked in 2011 and 2012. IMO, it was certainly our most exciting era of LA Tech football. What I wouldn't give to have Colby Cameron back at QB.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by HogDawg View Post
    Performance wise, I think LA Tech peaked in 2011 and 2012. IMO, it was certainly our most exciting era of LA Tech football. What I wouldn't give to have Colby Cameron back at QB.
    Higgins had a comparable year in 2016:

    329/496 (66.3%) 4,617 yards, 41 TDs, 8 Ints

    Cameron:

    359/522 (68.8%) 4,147 yards, 31 TDs, 5 Ints

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by T1 View Post
    Higgins had a comparable year in 2016:

    329/496 (66.3%) 4,617 yards, 41 TDs, 8 Ints

    Cameron:

    359/522 (68.8%) 4,147 yards, 31 TDs, 5 Ints
    True. But the picture is bigger than that.

    At one point in the 2012 season, LA Tech was 9-1, and nationally ranked, with it's only loss being a 59-57 barn burner in Shreveport, to #22 Texas A&M and Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel. At that point, LA Tech also had OOC road wins over Houston, Illinois and Virginia. Now THAT was an exciting time for LA Tech football.

    Meanwhile, the 2016 LA Tech team you referenced, lost 3 of it's first 4 games, including a 38-34 loss to somebody called "Middle Tennessee". Say what you will, but the 2016 team took the air (and excitement) out of their season pretty quickly.

    When was the last time last time LA Tech was 9-1?

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2019

    True, I thought you meant production.

    Question for Blue Dawg. Does that graph indicate our last 4 teams were better than the 2012 team from a ELO point of view? That can't be right.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by T1 View Post
    True, I thought you meant production.
    Also, that 2016 LA Tech team lost 5 games, while the 2012 team lost only 3.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by HogDawg View Post
    Also, that 2016 LA Tech team lost 5 games, while the 2012 team lost only 3.
    2012 finished with a Sagarin Rating of 52.
    2016 finished with a Sagarin Rating of 57.

    They were 2 of the best La Tech offenses ever, but also 2 of the worst La Tech defenses ever. Very similar teams.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2019

    The bottom line is that yes we are improving/trending upward from 2007 - 2018! Period!

    This is a good trend with some hiccups.

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    65's Top 10 Worthless Poster Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by T1 View Post
    True, I thought you meant production.

    Question for Blue Dawg. Does that graph indicate our last 4 teams were better than the 2012 team from a ELO point of view? That can't be right.
    Elo is most useful for analyzing trends and momentum. 2012 broke us above the 1000 "mediocre" line. 2014 had some big wins and ended on a high (thankfully for Tech, Elo doesn't count FCS games...), which helped erase the horrible 2013 season.

    That's why I like the candlestick chart for Elo. A single season's gain or loss is most significant when compared to where it is in the trend. So 2015-2017 are higher than 2014 because of the success gained by 2014 and 2016. But that momentum is starting to slow down and even drop entirely as it did last year.

    As with everything, one metric rarely tells the full story.

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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Elo Thread 2019

    Ah, thanks. So Tylertechsas nailed it. Is it fair to say we've been trending up from the point that Jim Oakes retired to today. That does seem realistic. We've invested a lot in the program since then and we are getting the return we wanted in wins.

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