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Thread: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2019

  1. #16
    Champ olddog75 has a reputation beyond reputeolddog75 has a reputation beyond reputeolddog75 has a reputation beyond reputeolddog75 has a reputation beyond reputeolddog75 has a reputation beyond reputeolddog75 has a reputation beyond reputeolddog75 has a reputation beyond reputeolddog75 has a reputation beyond reputeolddog75 has a reputation beyond reputeolddog75 has a reputation beyond reputeolddog75 has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by SicemDawgz View Post
    This should have been the year we made a run at the Access Bowl. We had one team to at least play respectable and we laid a huge egg.
    Come on, that wasn't going to happen with this team from the get go. We would of have to beat Texas, as the rest of our games are against low ranked teams.

  2. #17
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2019

    The computers are beginning to wise up.

    Last Yr This Wk
    Sag Rk 91 99
    Sag Rat 64.72 60.75
    Pred W-L 10-2 8-4
    Pred W-L 0.833 0.667
    Home Adv 2.64 2.64
    OOC Rk 143 142
    Conf Rk 120 119
    Conf Opp Rk 118 119



    H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W%
    @ 13 UT 85.10 -28.00 L 57.10 0.00
    195 GSU 40.32 6.00 W 48.57 1.00
    @ 156 BG 48.76 28.00 W 76.76 1.00
    109 FIU 58.19 12.00 W 72.83 1.00
    @ 139 Rice 52.73 5.38 W -4.84 0.63
    203 Mass 34.86 28.53 W -4.39 1.00
    87 USM 65.35 -1.96 L -3.62 0.45
    @ 180 UTEP 43.01 15.10 W -3.37 0.88
    79 UNT 67.47 -4.08 L -5.78 0.40
    @ 74 MARS 68.37 -10.26 L -2.32 0.24
    @ 114 UAB 56.33 1.78 W -6.68 0.54
    168 UTSA 43.61 19.78 W -0.04 0.99



    Without a blowout win this week I suspect UAB will flip to a lose, leaving UTSA as our Baffling Conference Home Loss and a final record of 6-6.

    Rk C-USA
    74 Marshall
    79 North Texas
    87 Southern Miss
    88 Florida Atlantic
    99 Louisiana Tech
    114 UAB
    117 Middle Tennessee
    122 Fla. International
    125 Western Kentucky
    131 Charlotte
    139 Rice
    140 Old Dominion
    168 UTSA
    180 UTEP

  3. #18
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2019

    LA Tech could easily end up on a 5-game winning steak, followed by a 5-game losing streak immediately afterward. (Maybe not, with UTEP in the middle. But they play us tough in El Paso.) I sure hope that doesn't happen.

  4. #19
    2011 Pick 'Em Champion johnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond repute johnnylightnin's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2019

    Seems like mainly a function of UNT getting a big win and USM losing to one of the top teams. I don't think much has changed. As we saw in our tale of two halves, we could win out...or we could finish with 6 wins.
    Time is your friend. Impulse is your enemy. -John Bogle

  5. #20
    65's Top 10 Worthless Poster Blue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Dawg has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by johnnylightnin View Post
    Seems like mainly a function of UNT getting a big win and USM losing to one of the top teams. I don't think much has changed. As we saw in our tale of two halves, we could win out...or we could finish with 6 wins.
    I think broadly this is the point in the season where the computers have a better sense of true team value. The predicted schedule is now much closer to what most of us suspected all along, so I think in that sense you're spot on: not much has changed.

  6. #21
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2019

    I don't know about 6 wins.

    I've kind of thought all along that the bad teams are most likely going to be pretty bad - with always the chance that either one will surprise in a good way and go from bad to not-that-bad or we screw around a lose a game we should have won. And of course both of those are still on the table (and as myopic as we tend to be with our own teams, both are pretty common scenarios in college football). But Rice, UTEP, UMass, and UTSA are all pretty bad. Rice maybe the best of the bunch (or best chance at an upset at some point this season, given what they've shown against Baylor and Army - I think that whole Stanford Jr. thing they're shooting for can really limit possessions and keep some games close). But these are games that we'll be favored in and should be favored in.

    It's the decent teams that were always going to go either way (with always the chance that a team we thought would be decent ends up bad or very good). I'd have had FIU in the decent-to-good pile coming into the season, but right now I'd say they've looked pretty bad (which worked out great for us).

    I think UAB is in a similar boat to us in that it's going to be pretty hard to tell how good they are or aren't until they've played some of the better conference teams (UNT, USM, and hopefully us). Now that we've cleared FIU, they're the next team on our schedule I'm just not really sure about. They ought to have taken a pretty big step back losing what they did. But they're well coached and could be better than expected.

    UNT and USM are the teams to beat in the West (still). And we (still) are capable of winning one or both of those games. Those games are going to help establish our ceiling I think (hopefully we win both and the ceiling remains a mystery).

    Marshall's a tough cross-divisional draw, but winning the FIU game reduces the risk somewhat there. I think they're clearly the front-runner in the conference and to win CUSA we're probably going to have to beat them (maybe twice).

  7. #22
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2019

    Last Yr This Wk
    Sag Rk 99 95
    Sag Rat 60.75 61.07
    Pred W-L 8-4 9-3
    Pred W-L 0.667 0.750
    Home Adv 2.64 2.56
    OOC Rk 142 142
    Conf Rk 119 121
    Conf Opp Rk 119 122

    H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W%
    @ 13 UT 85.10 -28.00 L 57.10 0.00
    195 GSU 40.32 6.00 W 48.57 1.00
    @ 156 BG 48.76 28.00 W 76.76 1.00
    109 FIU 58.19 12.00 W 72.83 1.00
    @ 139 Rice 52.73 3.00 W 55.73 1.00
    204 Mass 34.13 29.50 W +0.97 1.00
    88 USM 63.50 0.13 W +2.09 0.50
    @ 172 UTEP 43.94 14.57 W -0.53 0.86
    89 UNT 64.73 -1.10 L +2.98 0.47
    @ 94 MARS 62.00 -3.49 L +6.77 0.41
    @ 116 UAB 54.75 3.76 W +1.98 0.59
    168 UTSA 43.32 20.31 W +0.53 1.00

    Rk C-USA
    77 Florida Atlantic
    88 Southern Miss
    89 North Texas
    94 Marshall
    95 Louisiana Tech
    116 UAB
    118 Fla. International
    119 Western Kentucky
    122 Middle Tennessee
    141 Charlotte
    144 Rice
    150 Old Dominion
    168 UTSA
    172 UTEP

  8. #23
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by olddog75 View Post
    Come on, that wasn't going to happen with this team from the get go. We would of have to beat Texas, as the rest of our games are against low ranked teams.
    We moved the ball between the 20’s on Texas all night. I think we had the ball past their 30 like 5 times with zero points. It shouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility that with a 5th year QB and a 7th year coach that we could be competitive with them. You know, like the last two times we’ve been to Baton Rouge.

  9. #24
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2019

    Wait...we were 99th, then beat a now 0-5 Rice and moved up to 95th? See!? even the computers recognize Rice as the best 0-5 team in the nation!

    95th? Wow! with a great coach and a rock star 5th-year senior QB...say no more!

  10. #25
    Champ TYLERTECHSAS has a reputation beyond reputeTYLERTECHSAS has a reputation beyond reputeTYLERTECHSAS has a reputation beyond reputeTYLERTECHSAS has a reputation beyond reputeTYLERTECHSAS has a reputation beyond reputeTYLERTECHSAS has a reputation beyond reputeTYLERTECHSAS has a reputation beyond reputeTYLERTECHSAS has a reputation beyond reputeTYLERTECHSAS has a reputation beyond reputeTYLERTECHSAS has a reputation beyond reputeTYLERTECHSAS has a reputation beyond repute
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by dawg80 View Post
    Wait...we were 99th, then beat a now 0-5 Rice and moved up to 95th? See!? even the computers recognize Rice as the best 0-5 team in the nation!

    95th? Wow! with a great coach and a rock star 5th-year senior QB...say no more!
    We are moving up and will continue IMHO. I hope we do finishing 12-2 with a great Bowl win against a P5.

  11. #26
    2011 Pick 'Em Champion johnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond reputejohnnylightnin has a reputation beyond repute johnnylightnin's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by TYLERTECHSAS View Post
    We are moving up and will continue IMHO. I hope we do finishing 12-2 with a great Bowl win against a P5.
    Come on Ray! While we're hoping, let's hope to win out.
    Time is your friend. Impulse is your enemy. -John Bogle

  12. #27
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2019

    Very true. So 13-1 it is!

  13. #28
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    Re: Blue Dawg's Weekly Sagarin Football Thread 2019

    Last Yr This Wk
    Sag Rk 87 87
    Sag Rat 61.88 62.99
    Pred W-L 9-3 10-2
    Pred W-L 0.750 0.833
    Home Adv 2.6 2.43
    OOC Rk 145 145
    Conf Rk 120 118
    Conf Opp Rk 121 122

    H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W%
    @ 13 UT 85.10 -28.00 L 57.10 0.00
    195 GSU 40.32 6.00 W 48.57 1.00
    @ 156 BG 48.76 28.00 W 76.76 1.00
    109 FIU 58.19 12.00 W 72.83 1.00
    @ 139 Rice 52.73 3.00 W 55.73 1.00
    214 Mass 32.49 48.00 W 83.09 1.00
    86 USM 63.69 1.73 W +0.21 0.54
    @ 187 UTEP 42.07 18.49 W +1.36 0.96
    96 UNT 62.63 2.79 W +3.89 0.57
    @ 98 MARS 60.91 -0.35 L +0.61 0.49
    @ 101 UAB 58.93 1.63 W -0.51 0.54
    158 UTSA 45.55 19.87 W +3.26 1.00

    No real surprises. We are favored by less than home advantage but this is one of the more favorable lines I've seen for the Rivalry in Dixie.

    I'm getting more worried about UAB, the line continues to fall.

    Rk C-USA
    75 Florida Atlantic
    86 Southern Miss
    87 Louisiana Tech
    94 Western Kentucky
    96 North Texas
    98 Marshall
    101 UAB
    107 Fla. International
    113 Middle Tennessee
    143 Rice
    145 Charlotte
    156 Old Dominion
    158 UTSA
    187 UTEP

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