The computers are beginning to wise up.
Last Yr This Wk Sag Rk 91 99 Sag Rat 64.72 60.75 Pred W-L 10-2 8-4 Pred W-L 0.833 0.667 Home Adv 2.64 2.64 OOC Rk 143 142 Conf Rk 120 119 Conf Opp Rk 118 119
H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W% @ 13 UT 85.10 -28.00 L 57.10 0.00 195 GSU 40.32 6.00 W 48.57 1.00 @ 156 BG 48.76 28.00 W 76.76 1.00 109 FIU 58.19 12.00 W 72.83 1.00 @ 139 Rice 52.73 5.38 W -4.84 0.63 203 Mass 34.86 28.53 W -4.39 1.00 87 USM 65.35 -1.96 L -3.62 0.45 @ 180 UTEP 43.01 15.10 W -3.37 0.88 79 UNT 67.47 -4.08 L -5.78 0.40 @ 74 MARS 68.37 -10.26 L -2.32 0.24 @ 114 UAB 56.33 1.78 W -6.68 0.54 168 UTSA 43.61 19.78 W -0.04 0.99
Without a blowout win this week I suspect UAB will flip to a lose, leaving UTSA as our Baffling Conference Home Loss and a final record of 6-6.
Rk C-USA 74 Marshall 79 North Texas 87 Southern Miss 88 Florida Atlantic 99 Louisiana Tech 114 UAB 117 Middle Tennessee 122 Fla. International 125 Western Kentucky 131 Charlotte 139 Rice 140 Old Dominion 168 UTSA 180 UTEP
LA Tech could easily end up on a 5-game winning steak, followed by a 5-game losing streak immediately afterward. (Maybe not, with UTEP in the middle. But they play us tough in El Paso.) I sure hope that doesn't happen.
Seems like mainly a function of UNT getting a big win and USM losing to one of the top teams. I don't think much has changed. As we saw in our tale of two halves, we could win out...or we could finish with 6 wins.
Time is your friend. Impulse is your enemy. -John Bogle
I don't know about 6 wins.
I've kind of thought all along that the bad teams are most likely going to be pretty bad - with always the chance that either one will surprise in a good way and go from bad to not-that-bad or we screw around a lose a game we should have won. And of course both of those are still on the table (and as myopic as we tend to be with our own teams, both are pretty common scenarios in college football). But Rice, UTEP, UMass, and UTSA are all pretty bad. Rice maybe the best of the bunch (or best chance at an upset at some point this season, given what they've shown against Baylor and Army - I think that whole Stanford Jr. thing they're shooting for can really limit possessions and keep some games close). But these are games that we'll be favored in and should be favored in.
It's the decent teams that were always going to go either way (with always the chance that a team we thought would be decent ends up bad or very good). I'd have had FIU in the decent-to-good pile coming into the season, but right now I'd say they've looked pretty bad (which worked out great for us).
I think UAB is in a similar boat to us in that it's going to be pretty hard to tell how good they are or aren't until they've played some of the better conference teams (UNT, USM, and hopefully us). Now that we've cleared FIU, they're the next team on our schedule I'm just not really sure about. They ought to have taken a pretty big step back losing what they did. But they're well coached and could be better than expected.
UNT and USM are the teams to beat in the West (still). And we (still) are capable of winning one or both of those games. Those games are going to help establish our ceiling I think (hopefully we win both and the ceiling remains a mystery).
Marshall's a tough cross-divisional draw, but winning the FIU game reduces the risk somewhat there. I think they're clearly the front-runner in the conference and to win CUSA we're probably going to have to beat them (maybe twice).
Last Yr This Wk Sag Rk 99 95 Sag Rat 60.75 61.07 Pred W-L 8-4 9-3 Pred W-L 0.667 0.750 Home Adv 2.64 2.56 OOC Rk 142 142 Conf Rk 119 121 Conf Opp Rk 119 122
H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W% @ 13 UT 85.10 -28.00 L 57.10 0.00 195 GSU 40.32 6.00 W 48.57 1.00 @ 156 BG 48.76 28.00 W 76.76 1.00 109 FIU 58.19 12.00 W 72.83 1.00 @ 139 Rice 52.73 3.00 W 55.73 1.00 204 Mass 34.13 29.50 W +0.97 1.00 88 USM 63.50 0.13 W +2.09 0.50 @ 172 UTEP 43.94 14.57 W -0.53 0.86 89 UNT 64.73 -1.10 L +2.98 0.47 @ 94 MARS 62.00 -3.49 L +6.77 0.41 @ 116 UAB 54.75 3.76 W +1.98 0.59 168 UTSA 43.32 20.31 W +0.53 1.00
Rk C-USA 77 Florida Atlantic 88 Southern Miss 89 North Texas 94 Marshall 95 Louisiana Tech 116 UAB 118 Fla. International 119 Western Kentucky 122 Middle Tennessee 141 Charlotte 144 Rice 150 Old Dominion 168 UTSA 172 UTEP
We moved the ball between the 20’s on Texas all night. I think we had the ball past their 30 like 5 times with zero points. It shouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility that with a 5th year QB and a 7th year coach that we could be competitive with them. You know, like the last two times we’ve been to Baton Rouge.
Wait...we were 99th, then beat a now 0-5 Rice and moved up to 95th? See!? even the computers recognize Rice as the best 0-5 team in the nation!
95th? Wow! with a great coach and a rock star 5th-year senior QB...say no more!
Very true. So 13-1 it is!
Last Yr This Wk Sag Rk 87 87 Sag Rat 61.88 62.99 Pred W-L 9-3 10-2 Pred W-L 0.750 0.833 Home Adv 2.6 2.43 OOC Rk 145 145 Conf Rk 120 118 Conf Opp Rk 121 122
H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W% @ 13 UT 85.10 -28.00 L 57.10 0.00 195 GSU 40.32 6.00 W 48.57 1.00 @ 156 BG 48.76 28.00 W 76.76 1.00 109 FIU 58.19 12.00 W 72.83 1.00 @ 139 Rice 52.73 3.00 W 55.73 1.00 214 Mass 32.49 48.00 W 83.09 1.00 86 USM 63.69 1.73 W +0.21 0.54 @ 187 UTEP 42.07 18.49 W +1.36 0.96 96 UNT 62.63 2.79 W +3.89 0.57 @ 98 MARS 60.91 -0.35 L +0.61 0.49 @ 101 UAB 58.93 1.63 W -0.51 0.54 158 UTSA 45.55 19.87 W +3.26 1.00
No real surprises. We are favored by less than home advantage but this is one of the more favorable lines I've seen for the Rivalry in Dixie.
I'm getting more worried about UAB, the line continues to fall.
Rk C-USA 75 Florida Atlantic 86 Southern Miss 87 Louisiana Tech 94 Western Kentucky 96 North Texas 98 Marshall 101 UAB 107 Fla. International 113 Middle Tennessee 143 Rice 145 Charlotte 156 Old Dominion 158 UTSA 187 UTEP
Last Yr This Wk Sag Rk 87 80 Sag Rat 62.99 64.37 Pred W-L 10-2 11-1 Pred W-L 0.833 0.917 Home Adv 2.43 2.52 OOC Rk 145 145 Conf Rk 118 121 Conf Opp Rk 122 122
H/A Rk Team Sag Fav W/L +/- Act Quality W% @ 13 UT 85.10 -28.00 L 57.10 0.00 195 GSU 40.32 6.00 W 48.57 1.00 @ 156 BG 48.76 28.00 W 76.76 1.00 109 FIU 58.19 12.00 W 72.83 1.00 @ 139 Rice 52.73 3.00 W 55.73 1.00 214 Mass 32.49 48.00 W 83.09 1.00 86 USM 63.69 15.00 W 81.12 1.00 @ 187 UTEP 42.56 19.29 W +0.80 0.98 105 UNT 61.37 5.52 W +2.73 0.64 @ 95 MARS 61.53 0.32 W +0.67 0.51 @ 101 UAB 60.55 1.30 W -0.33 0.53 154 UTSA 47.25 19.64 W -0.23 0.99
Rk C-USA 80 Louisiana Tech 83 Florida Atlantic 90 Southern Miss 95 Marshall 101 UAB 102 Western Kentucky 105 North Texas 111 Fla. International 118 Middle Tennessee 148 Charlotte 153 Rice 154 UTSA 161 Old Dominion 187 UTEP
Computers are starting to wise up. 😉