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I had to have 4 tests in a 7 day period prior to shoulder surgery on the 31st -
2 of those tests was because of "mistakes" by the clinic/facility and testing center...
There were over 30 patients scheduled for surgery at the surgical center that day and all had to have do overs - this is just ONE instance in our area, I wonder how many of these instances are played out over the state and nation each week?
''Don't be a bad dagh..."
Dang, Dwayne! people like you just mess up the stats.
This Dr. Billioux has explained LDH’s approach to reporting many times. Crazy that you don’t seem to know who he is.Originally Posted by dawg80
Northwestern State, Johns Hopkins MD, Oxford PhD.
I don’t think he built that resume to blow smoke in 2020. Smart cat. Louisiana is lucky to have him; luckier to keep him.
Worth a look-see:
http://app.lla.state.la.us/PublicReports.nsf/0/49980A77E1C2B9AA862585BC007253D6/$FILE/COVID_19.pdf?OpenElement&.7773098
Thanks for posting this. I don't know this Daryl Purpera, (sp ?) person, but I do know the LSA, and as a whole, they are top notch. I have had direct, sit down and meet with, dealings with state auditors since 2007...never on anything related to virus outbreaks (although that may be coming in for Natch Parish soon)... on budget matters. I have always found them to be straight-talkers, stand-up people. In fact, I nixed a visit from the state auditors for the Natch Parish government's budget/operations so as to give our new parish treasurer time to get a grasp of our finances, accounting and produce a report to the parish council. Next January, the state auditors will come in and check behind our new treasurer IF I think it is warranted. You NEVER, NEVER request an audit from the LSA office unless you have strong reasons to suspect hanky-panky or you are asking them to check something VERY specific. Notice how in this case DeSoto and Red River parishes asked a very specific question about the reporting of numbers on a very specific issue.
Now, this report...as I said I have no reason not to trust the LSA. In my 13 years of dealing with them, they have never disappointed me. So! this means that somewhere above 1.5 million individual Louisianians have been tested and we have less than 40K active China virus cases...that is 40K too many, yes...that means that only 2.7% of Louisiana residents have tested positive and are still in some stage of active infection. But, not all of them are still in the contagious stage. I don't know what the % would be.
Is this good news? Well, as I said, 40K cases too many, but it appears to me with only 2.7% of the population having tested positive and the vast majority of those self-quarantining...we have gotten better in doing that...it is relatively safe for the rest of us. Now, the flip side of the question is: what about those who are infected, don't know that they are, and have never been tested? Well, given the size of the statistical sample, 35% of the total population has been tested, it is safe to assume that they too fit the statistical model. If, big IF, one assumes the entire population of Louisiana, all 4.3 million of us, have been exposed to the virus with ample opportunity to become infected, then the worst case scenario would be to add another 80K to the active infection number, for a grand total of 120K. Still 2.7% of the population.
Is that enough to lockdown, shutdown schools and other entities? Seems to me with some practical protocols in place...requiring PPEs, as appropriate, some distancing practices, checking people's temp, etc...that Louisiana, and really, the entire country can return to state of more normalcy.
I did mention that 55-person firm with 100% negative testing after a confirmed case of the virus in their midst. They got lucky? Maybe, but the statistics were on their side.
Never mind, Dwayne, it appears you did not mess up the stats...you have been counted only once. Great news!
August 10
131,961 cases 4,169 deaths
1,382 in hosp 215 on vents
August 11
133,125 cases 4,195 deaths
1,335 in hosp 214 on vents
August 12
134,304 cases 4,238 deaths
1,335 in hosp 214 on vents
103,512 presumed recovered, 77%
The in hosp and on vents numbers did not change from yesterday, probably not updated.
Read a story this morning where a family had 3 people test positive for COVID in Louisiana. 2 of the 5 members did not. When contacted by a state contact tracing staffer, the guy asked how many lived in the house, and he said 5. The tracing staffer said ok "5 positive for Covid". The dad said, 'no only 3 are positive', and the staffer responded, I'm putting 5 in my log. The Dad contacted the AG's office to report how the number was being reported wrong, and all they said was "we know".
It does make you question the data and accuracy.
That is why we look at hospitalizations and test positivity rates. Far more reliable data.
The data is only as reliable as those who present it.
"Garbage in, garbage out!"
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