Russia

[dawg80]

Russians gave up trying to take Pokrovsk, at least for now. The vaunted 1st Azov Corps is there, and the Orcs have done nothing but die. So, leaving just two brigades to hopefully (for the Russians) hold the line and 80% of the troops formerly south of Pokrovsk have been deployed further south to open a new attack vector. The Russians moved the 90th Tank Division and four infantry brigades south. This is typical of the Russians. They beat their brains out trying to take a key location, lose tens of thousands of soldiers and scores of vehicles, then they probe along the line seeking a weaker point to attack. Where they are now is lightly defended by Ukraine and its mostly open farmland dotted by tiny villages. Ukraine has no, zero, substantial defensive works, not for another 15+ miles or so. Probably the Russians will quickly gobble up ground, maybe as far as those defenses 15 miles further west, but, get bogged down again. Spend 10+ months failing to breach the line, lose tons more in men and equipment. Then seek another weaker point to attack. And so it goes for nearly 4 years.

[dawg80]

Stupid! The Russians actually directly challenged the elite 1st Azov Corps to a stand-up fight. That is truly unbelievable! The "battle" lasted all of 90 minutes, every Russian vehicle was destroyed, which included 2 tanks, 8 armored vehicles (IFV, APC), 4 "armored" trucks, and over 30 various other vehicles like motorcycles, ATVs, and a few civilian cars. Russia KIA was 125, WIA 200+, POWs, 60. The survivors fled, with Ukrainian drones in hot pursuit. I put battle in quotes because it was not a real battle, it was a slaughter. Losses on the Ukrainian side is one IFV, a German-built fighting vehicle, was damaged and had to be abandoned, later destroyed by a Russian drone. All the Ukrainians got out safely. Ukrainian losses, as reported were 0 KIA, 12 wounded. That's it.

The Azov commanders watched in utter disbelief from their command center as a Ukran recon drone tracked the approach of the Orc column. This happened north of Pokrovsk and apparently it was a last-ditch effort to rescue those 2,000 or so Russians trapped in a pocket, completely surrounded by Ukrainian (mostly 1st Corps) troops. The Azov commanders are shown discussing the advancing Russian column and one says, "Are they nuts!?" Since the Azov unit was upgraded to a full regiment, then a brigade, now a whole corps they have never lost a battle. Not tactically. I suppose when the Azov Brigade was sent into Avdiivka to rescue those trapped Ukrainian units, back in 2023, one might say they failed...well, not really, since trying to hold Avdiivka at that time was already a lost cause and their primary mission was to cover the withdrawal of the trapped units, which they accomplished. Anyway, Russian field commanders have learned not to pick a fight with the 1st Azov Corps. Why these clowns thought otherwise, who knows?

[dawg80]

Russians gave up trying to take Pokrovsk, at least for now. The vaunted 1st Azov Corps is there, and the Orcs have done nothing but die. So, leaving just two brigades to hopefully (for the Russians) hold the line and 80% of the troops formerly south of Pokrovsk have been deployed further south to open a new attack vector. The Russians moved the 90th Tank Division and four infantry brigades south. This is typical of the Russians. They beat their brains out trying to take a key location, lose tens of thousands of soldiers and scores of vehicles, then they probe along the line seeking a weaker point to attack. Where they are now is lightly defended by Ukraine and its mostly open farmland dotted by tiny villages. Ukraine has no, zero, substantial defensive works, not for another 15+ miles or so. Probably the Russians will quickly gobble up ground, maybe as far as those defenses 15 miles further west, but, get bogged down again. Spend 10+ months failing to breach the line, lose tons more in men and equipment. Then seek another weaker point to attack. And so it goes for nearly 4 years.

The mass of Orcs has not attempted to advance after the movement south. They still hold a huge numerical advantage in the area, but Ukraine has been moving reinforcements into some quickly built defensive lines. But the terrain favors the Russians in this area. Why they are waiting to attack is not clear. They should have launched ASAP when Ukraine had ZERO troops there, except some 15 miles further west. One pundit surmises these Russian units are spent. Morale is gone, their equipment/supplies are lacking...the average Russian soldier wants to go home, they are just trying to survive.

[dawg80]

News from the Baltics. First, Estonia has closed a road, a major highway in that region, that traversed from Estonia, through Russia, and back into Estonia. Not a big deal except for those folks living in the area who now have to go many miles further to get anywhere. This is a move so that Estonia can close and fortify that part of their border with Russia.

The bigger news is Lithuania and Poland have slammed the door on Putin's fortified base of Kaliningrad. Finally imposing the sanctions, the EU imposed on Russia. All trains/truck convoys trying to travel from Russia or Belarus through Lithuania and Poland to Kaliningrad are being stopped and searched. If any, just one crate, is found with sanctioned items, the whole train or that truck is turned around, even if most of the cargo is legal. This will practically strangle the economy of Kaliningrad and its population of one million. Russia could supply Kaliningrad by air or sea but that is expensive, slower, and can be easily halted in times of war. Trains are the best method to move large quantities of freight. Now, an entire train will be turned around if carrying any sanctioned items. Some food items, medicine, and medical supplies will be exempted and allowed to be transported to Kaliningrad. But the list of sanctioned items is very long. The EU is trying not to punish the people of Kaliningrad as they are trying to win hearts and minds. Last year a referendum to become an independent nation, severing ties to Moscow, passed with 72% of the vote. The people of Kaliningrad identify with Europe. They want to be part of Europe...not part of the Russian Federation.

Putin's empire is shrinking.

[dawg80]

The Orcs are stubborn. They have regrouped and attacked again east of Pokrovsk. And again, and they are getting clobbered, mostly by units of the 1st Azov Corps. According to one pundit this is why Ukraine allowed the pockets of trapped Russian to remain. It's bait to lure the Russians into these stupid rescue attempts. The Russians keep taking the bait and keep getting wiped out. It's happening right now as I type this. There's a helluva of fight occurring. Results to be reported later.

[dawg80]

Return of the 141st Brigade. Six months ago the Ukranian 141st was operating along the border between Ukraine and Russia, the Belgorod Oblast. Not sure of the details, but this unit "disappeared" in a thick forest. Many of their troops were captured. Some YouTubers claim many deserted. Apparently, a good portion of the brigade came from the Donbas region and might have had Russian-leanings. But, that is all behind them now. Refitted, reinforced, and under a new command structure the new 141st Brigade launched a counterattack yesterday in Donetsk routing two brigades of Russians. The rank-and-file say they were embarrassed by what happened 6 months ago and want to restore the reputation of the brigade. Well, if this advance is any indication, then the Orcs had better watch out.

[dawg80]

The Orcs are stubborn. They have regrouped and attacked again east of Pokrovsk. And again, and they are getting clobbered, mostly by units of the 1st Azov Corps. According to one pundit this is why Ukraine allowed the pockets of trapped Russian to remain. It's bait to lure the Russians into these stupid rescue attempts. The Russians keep taking the bait and keep getting wiped out. It's happening right now as I type this. There's a helluva of fight occurring. Results to be reported later.

Russians were trying to take, for a second time, so "retake" the village of Skakhove, located between the Russian lines and one of the pockets of trapped Orcs. They came in two columns along parallel roads...whipped again. On one road they lost 12 vehicles (1 tank 11 APC/IFVs) and a reported 105 soldiers. On the other they lost 16 vehicles, a mix of actual military vehicles and converted civilian vehicles..."Mad Maxxed" as one YouTuber labels it. If you saw the Mad Max movies then you know how regular cars/trucks were converted into "fighting vehicles." Also, 14 motorcycles, and their riders were destroyed. Orc casualties reported as 200+ but no breakdown on KIA, WIA, POW.

Saw a report that 80% of all casualties are caused by drones now.

[dawg80]

Speaking of drones, there's an awesome YouTube video documenting the Ukranian attack on Putin's HUGE oil storage and transfer port of Fredosia, on the Black Sea. Happened on October 8th. A Chinese flagged oil tanker was completely destroyed in the attack. Blew up like a stick of dynamite with losses to the Chinese crew. I can't do the attack justice but there is a YouTube video documenting the attack. Shows how incredibly clever and skilled Ukrainian drone operators/planners have become. The technology involved is leading edge. They used a drone "swarm" for the attack, decoy drones to draw off Russian anti-drone missiles, and recon drones hovering high overhead.

The facility itself was put out of service, probably for months, if not indefinitely. Ukran drones destroyed the main pump house, which was enclosed in a protected building with 3-foot thick, reinforced concrete walls. Three drones were sent to attack this pump house. The first two punched a hole in the wall, and the third drone flew in and hit the main pump causing a huge explosion. The pipes, and then large rubber hoses carrying oil to the tankers, and in this case, the Chinese tanker erupted in flames which reached the tanker's oil storage tanks...kaboom! the explosion was seen 26 miles away.

There's a lot more details to this event. Such as how the Ukran drone operators had to fight a 30mph headwind crossing the Black Sea, adjust the flight of all the drones to avoid Russian radar and their anti-drone batteries, etc. Remarkable.

[dawg80]

The run on the MOEX (Moscow Exchange) continues. Back on Oct 8th the US, together with Taiwan, started dumping all stocks in Russian and Russian-based companies. I say the "US" but it is really hedge funds and some individual investors based in the US. Our fellows didn't hold enough stocks in the MOEX to make that much of a difference, and had we'd been the only ones, or even with Taiwan's assistance, the MOEX could have absorbed those losses fairly well. But! when the US, or any entity directly connected to the US, does anything the WHOLE WORLD takes notice. This is what someone, I guess in the Trump administration was counting on. And, it worked! Within 20 minutes of the dump starting other nations and other huge investors across the world got spooked and followed suit. This included most of Europe and even India, China, and Vietnam also began selling off holdings in the MOEX. Before trading ended on the 8th, the MOEX had lost $160 billion in value. Now, while that amount wouldn't make much of a dent in the New York Stock Exchange or in some of the other major exchanges around the world, it represented a significant hit to the MOEX. Since Oct 8th, the MOEX has continued to trend downward losing a further net $12 billion. There has been some bargain hunting with some purchases of down stocks, but overall more money is leaking out than is going in. This represents about a 20% drop in the MOEX.

The MOEX hit its all-time high in 2021 with a total value of $14 trillion USD. Since then it has steadily dropped, especially after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

[dawg80]

The Zaporizhya (Zapor) Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine is the largest in Europe. It was captured in 2022, and the Russians have held it ever since. For the past three weeks it has been offline. Ukraine largely depends on (well, depended on (past tense)) it for power for about half the country. Some sources speculated the Russians, lacking access to spare parts, have allowed the plant to deteriorate to the point it quit working. Not so. The Russians purposely took it offline while they are diverting the power (electricity) to Russia. The Russians have disconnected the powerlines to interior Ukraine in favor of running lines back to Russia. To keep the cores from "over heating" and creating a "China syndrome" event the Russians have been using diesel-powered generators to keep the water pumps operating. This is a violation of all protocols and industry-accepted operating guidance. Of course, Putin doesn't care one bit. His sinking economy, his crashing energy sector needs the power for the Russian grid. Now, what will Ukraine do? They can easily.... VERY EASILY...destroy the new powerlines being run back to Russia. But, if they do and make it clear they will deny Russia the power, then Putin will order the plant destroyed or even just leave, including shutting off the generators, causing a major, catastrophic nuclear event. In addition to an environmental crisis, such an action will destroy the plant denying Ukraine the future use of it for their needs.

[dawg80]

A Russian sub is floundering off the coast of France. Apparently sprung a leak and is now drifting on the surface. A French frigate is nearby monitoring it. Russia has probably dispatched a ship to aid it...provided that ship doesn't sink too. Poor ole Putin, trying to act tough but his navy sinks itself.

[dawg80]

Ukraine hit another Russian ship, this one the guided-missile corvette, "Grad." Another Putin ship on the Black Sea? Nope, the Grad was on the White Sea! This is huge! The White Sea is northeast of St. Petersburg and is part of Russia's mini version of the Panama Canal connecting the Caspian Sea to the Baltic Sea. The White Sea is 1,600 miles from Ukraine. The Ukrans sent three drones, two decoys and the drone carrying a 250lb warhead. The ship is now sitting disabled, hooked to two tugs. The drone targeted the engine/generator room, and the ship is without power. There was a skeleton crew at the time because the Russians thought the ship was 100% safe on the White Sea. Its defensive systems were set on idle.

[dawg80]

Another try to reach those trapped Russians north of Pokrovsk, a third try. And...strike three, you are out Putin!

This time focusing on one road, south of Shakhove, the Orcs sent tanks again. Conflicting reports on the numbers, so I will post the more conservative numbers, Russians lost 6 tanks, 16 IFV/APCs, another 20+ vehicles (converted civilian trucks and cars) 40+ motorcycles, 150 KIA, 200+ WIA, survivors scattered into the woods and abandoned buildings of a farming village. Ukran drones now systemically hunting them down. Orcs sent 40+ motorcycles racing in first, some of them carrying two soldiers. They aimed to take Ukrainian advanced positions. It didn't work. About a dozen motorcycles that survived raced back up the road, half of those crushed under the tracks of rapidly advancing tanks. Obviously the tank drivers didn't expect to see their motorcycles coming back down the road. Great video shot by Ukran recon drone of the collisions...the bikes lost . In less than two hours the entire Russian column was destroyed. Ukran losses....zero. Not even one wounded soldier. Ukrans fought mostly with drones and artillery. The brief encounter between opposing soldiers greatly favored the Ukrainians who were behind defensive works while the Orcs were in the open.

The 6 Russian tanks*** destroyed included 3 T-90m's, Putin's best tank.

***some sources are reporting wild claims, one saying Russia lost 50 tanks in this battle. That's total BS. According to reliable sources Putin has fewer than 100 tanks still operational. He started this war, 2022, with 11,000+ tanks. Russia has just one plant still operating that builds tanks, the T-90m, but it can produce only 50 tanks per year. That's it. When asked why Ukraine doesn't destroy this factory too, a Ukranian general replied, "we can wait till the Russians conveniently drive them to us where they can be destroyed easily." This plant is near the Ural Mountains, so over 1,000 miles east of Moscow. Would require a long-range drone strike.

[dawg80]

Putin/Russia is losing territory to China and North Korea in the vast expanses of eastern Russia. Regions like Siberia, millions of square miles with a total population of fewer than 8 million people, very sparsely occupied, are being taken. Already China has sent (ordered) 2 million Chinese to move into and occupy Russian land. North Korea has concentrated 50,000 people in one area, near a railroad and a river, ostensibly to manage the movement of military supplies to Russia. But, they are also putting down roots with no intention of giving up the land. Russia is too weak militarily to stand up to China/NK and just have to take it.

[dawg80]

The Orcs aren't quitting trying to take Pokrovsk. Another failed assault north of the city, toward Shakhove, and small incursions from the south.

North of the city the Orcs sent motorbikes again, 6 of them, and they made it safely through to an abandoned trench. They sent word back to come on up. Two Russian BMPs (IFVs) came up with 10 soldiers, and they made it safely to the trench. Was looking good. Only two Ukrainian drones appeared, damaging one of the BMPs. No artillery either. Emboldened the Russians prepared to move a large column forward. All the while Ukran recon drones were watching. And, Ukran drones then methodically appeared from their hiding places (they were there, hidden in the woods), mining the road. Drones land briefly and drop off anti-tank mines along the road and in every place a vehicle might leave the road. Here comes 22 Russian vehicles of various kinds speeding up the road, thinking it was safe. Afterall those bikes and BMPs just traveled up this very road safely. Nope. all 22 Russian vehicles were destroyed either by the mines or attacking drones. Then those Orcs up front were attacked by Ukrainian troops, of the Azov 1st Corps 12th National Guard Brigade. Complete and total wipeout.

South of Pokrovsk the "clever" Orcs pulled a good one. After moving the bulk of their forces away from Pokrovsk, and leaving only two brigades to hold the trenches, the Russians wanted Ukraine to think they would not be attacking from the south. Well, they aren't, not in large numbers. But some of Russia's commandoes have quietly been sent there and now, working in small groups of 5-6 soldiers each, these "elite" troops have penetrated into the city of Pokrovsk. Using sewer pipes, and then getting into basements of houses and buildings, these troops have managed to penetrate into the city's center in three places. They ambushed a Ukrainian patrol in one firefight, but now the Ukrans are on to them. These Russian commandoes are now cutoff and being systemically eliminated. It'll take days to root them all out. Putin propagandists are trying to spin this as some major breakthrough claiming Russian troops have captured the southern part of Pokrovsk. Nah.