Russia

[dawg80]

A Russian pilot panicked when his jet engines messed up, he was fully loaded with bombs heading toward Ukraine on a mission, so he released his big 1.5-ton bunker buster bomb, but did not arm it, while still flying over Russia. The bomb crashed through the wall of a grocery store, didn't explode, but did a lot of damage to the building. Funny video of the bomb sticking through the wall, having also destroyed two shelves of food products. One local Russian citizen, with a sense of humor, is overheard saying to the shop keeper, "How much for the bomb?" No one was hurt.

On a serious note, the Ukrans are mostly tapped out on anti-aircraft weapons, so the Russians are having their way in aerial attacks. The close-support fighter-bombers, the SU-25s, are particularly troublesome for the Ukrainians.

[dawg80]

Just released report conducted by a joint effort of the PNAS, the BBC, and Meduza Research Media on the total losses of both sides since February, 2022. Figures are of February 29, 2024, two years of war.

Russian military deaths (KIA, died from wounds, accidents, etc..) related to the war: 108,000
Russian wounded and unable to return to military service (wounds so severe the soldier is kaput, useless), plus those wounded absent from the ranks for some extended period: 262,000
Russians taken prisoner by Ukraine: 38,000
Total losses: 408,000 Plus the BBC added in estimated desertions and bumped the total to 433,000.


Ukrainian casualties in the same categories
Combat related deaths: 67,000
Wounded: 95,000
POWs: 13,000
Desertions/other reasons: 6,000

Grand Total: 181,000

I found the numbers of 67K and 95K for the Ukrans to be a bit high, but the narrator explained the methodology and the extensive research done to arrive at these figures. They used many sources, such as social media postings, local newspapers (in both countries) running stories on losses of local young men in the war. In Russia something called the Title Registry which records a change in title of land, a car, bank accounts, etc...all of which is caused by a death (not just from war, but any death), in addition to video evidence from drones, the purchase of body bags (which I mentioned in a past post), the reorganization of units down to the company level and changes in the numbers, etc, etc, etc. Appears to be the most accurate accounting done so far.

Note: the 108,000 combat deaths seems low for Russia too. It was widely reported (exaggerated) that the Wagner Group lost 100,000 men taking Bakhmut alone. No one seriously thought that was accurate, but since then many reports place Wagner's losses at 33,000 KIA and another 50,000+ wounded in the 10 months taking Bakhmut. And those numbers appear to be fairly accurate. And that is just Wagner's losses at Bakhmut, not the regular Russian army losses, which bumps the number up higher. Recent reports place Russia's KIA at Avdiivka over 15,000+. There is combat daily along the front, sometimes minor skirmishes, but more losses every day.

These groups have also put together a report on equipment losses, and the state of the Russian economy, neither of which I have viewed yet.

[dawg80]

Russian attack smashed west of Avdiivka by the elite Ukran paratrooper brigade, the 25th. Set up a perfect ambush. Took out 6 tanks and 8 more APCs. Stranded infantry, after their rides were either destroyed or ran (drove) away, were all killed by cluster bombs and then FPV drones which hunted down and took out the scattered remaining Russkis. Estimated Russian losses about 40 infantry plus the crews of the 14 vehicles(another 42). No one was seen emerging from the burning tanks/APCs so all crews presumed dead.

Confirmation from western intelligence sources that the Russians have indeed produced an improved EWS (Electronic Warfare System) that scrambles control signals intended for the drones. The EWS was present in this case, yet boom! the drones got through and took out 14 vehicles. What happened? Well, the ever-clever Ukrans have anticipated the Russians getting improved EWS so they have switched to thermal targeting drones now, immune to the EWS. Hah! All the Ukran controllers have to do is get the kamikaze drones within thermal targeting range, about a mile or so, which is beyond the effective range of the EWS, and turn off the electronic guidance in favor of the thermal imaging targeting system. Obviously tanks/APCs with their large diesel engines put off a lot of heat...bingo! This is why all 14 crews were killed. They knew the drones were inbound and were counting on their EWS to defeat them. Wrong!

Little ole Ukraine, always one step ahead of Putin!

[dawg80]

Russia struck the main power plant supplying power to Kyiv and surrounding towns, a total of 7 million people. It's not the only power plant in the area, but it is, or was, the largest. Putin sent 42 cruise missiles, of which 24 made it through the depleted Ukran aerial defense. They are short Patriot missiles and other anti-aircraft/missile weapons. The power plant was struck multiple times and fires are burning there. Putin, during a joint press conference with Belarus' Lukashenko, said he will attack and destroy all the remaining power plants now that winter has passed. He claims he didn't want to leave Ukrainian civilians in the cold. BS! it's only now Ukraine has run short of defensive weapons, and only now Putin can be successful.

[dawg80]

More bad news, but not too surprising. Over 15,000 military-aged men have snuck out of Ukraine to avoid the draft, and that number is rising. Human traffickers are charging at least $1,000 (US) to smuggle young men across the border into Moldavia, mostly, which is a Putin-puppet state and has opened its border, cooperating with the traffickers to hinder Ukraine's war effort. The Ukrainians reaching Moldavia are in for a surprise though, they are arrested and then sent to forced-labor camps. There have been gun battles along the border between Ukranian soldiers, the traffickers and Moldavian police/military when a group is being caught by Ukrainian authorities trying to cross the border.

Now, I find this very curious. The draft age in Ukraine is currently 27-42. Not 18-yr-olds+ like you would see here. President Z has been sitting on a bill lowering the conscription age to 25, which he has hesitated to sign into law hoping he wouldn't have to.

But, the home folks being disgruntled and tired of the war is not restricted to Ukraine. Most Russians are absolutely fed up with it too. But in Russia Putin's thug police have been heavy-handed from the beginning and Putin has total control of the media and what the average Russian is permitted to see in the news. Not so in Ukraine where people have access to worldwide media sources and are better informed about the reality of the war. Still, the truth has a way of revealing itself and mostly from Russian soldiers now home, most of those nursing wounds, reality has also set in across Russia.

[dawg80]

Mass desertions of Russian troops in Kherson Region. Many pundits have wondered aloud how Ukraine has managed to hold its narrow strip of land at Krynky, south of the Dnepr River. The Russians have sent brigade after brigade into the area to attack and retake the land. Yet, after nearly a year the Ukrans are still holding the ground. How is this possible, especially given how successful the Russians have been when they pile in a bunch of units, such as at Avdiivka? Well the answer appears to be: MASS DESERTIONS. One pundit estimates that 90% of the Russians sent in to attack the Ukrans at Krynky, not only refused to carry out assigned combat missions, but have defected to the Ukranian side. What has been officially announced is the formation of a new 5,000-man battalion of former Russian soldiers currently training at a camp in western Ukraine, being readied to go to the frontline to fight the Putinites. This 5,000 number does not account for the total desertions, but other former Russian soldiers have also sought refuge in Ukraine and do not want to join the Ukrainian army, and others are in different stages of making the transition to joining the Ukrainian army.

Putin has ordered the transfer of more of his Pacific troops to Ukraine. Many of these are Russian Marines, while others are army troops previously assigned to garrisons in the Pacific region, of Asian Russia. Getting desperate...

[dawg80]

Russian soldiers sent to retake Belgorod have openly complained about incompetent leadership, blaming the lousy command structure for the mess there. Last year some elite Russian units were sent to Belgorod and the rebels quickly retreated without engaging in too much combat. But now the Russian units sent in can't seem to get out of their own way, and as result the RFL is still holding a good portion of Belgorod. Another crack in Putin's armor. Things are getting progressively worse for Putin. The question is can Ukraine hold on long enough to allow Putin's evil regime to implode?

[dawg80]

Appears the attacks near Chasvi Yar may be just a feint, with Russia's real offensive is at Sversk (sp?). According to sources the Russians have deployed 80,000 troops to that area and started some probing attacks at White Mountain, an important tactical position held by the Ukrans...obviously the high ground as it is a mountain. Besides Crimea, the Russians are closest to seizing all of Luhansk, of the three eastern provinces. Sversk is a key city about 10 miles east of the provincial capital of Luhansk. The topography greatly favors a defending force, currently the Ukrainians, as in addition to White Mountain the region is composed of steep hills and deep ravines with rivers. There is one village that straddles one of the rivers, half the town on each side, that sits at the foot of a valley. This approach is over mostly flat land, or low hills, it is open farmland however, so Russian units will be easy targets for Ukran drones and artillery. Still, it offers, topographically, the easiest approach deep into Ukrainian held ground in the area. The Russians are piling up vehicles and troops near this valley, so a concentrated offensive it expected there.

The Ukrans have anticipated Putin would try to attack in this region, as, if successful, he could claim all of Luhansk. This would be an important PR victory for him. But, the Ukrans have been building defensive works throughout the area and have fortified all the hills and possible river crossings. If properly supplied...and that has become a problem...the Ukrans should be able to hold the region. One military think tank just ran a scenario on a Russian offensive to seize all of Luhansk, and it's not pretty for the Russians. They say it would take 300,000 troops and all the air power Putin can muster to take the capital of Luhansk (another city whose name that begins with a K and is very long). This 80,000-man effort could be just a prelude, the opening round of a protracted strategic offensive. In other words, seize what they can and then pause until a larger build-up can be mustered.

As mentioned, there is no way Ukraine can match, man for man, these Russian concentrations of forces. If the Russians attack with 80,000 men, the best the Ukrans can do is try to hold on with the estimated 12,000 currently deployed there and bring in some reinforcements.

[dawg80]

Russia has abandoned their efforts to seize the important city of Terney. After months of attacks, and huge losses, the Russian 47th Tank Division has withdrawn from the area. Terney sits astride a large river in the Luhansk province. There are two large, concrete bridges that would serve an army crossing that river. But, the Russkis failed and are now retiring. The 47th division appears to be heading toward the Sversk area to participate in that offensive. But, as is typical of Putin, about 400 Russian soldiers were left abandoned in a forward position near Terney. The Ukrans noted this and launched a counter-attack. All 400 have either been killed or taken prisoner.

Spring rains, together with snow melt, are making the fields muddy messes and greatly hindering the movement of heavy vehicles, like tanks and APCs. Western sources cast doubt on the Russians enjoying success for the next few months and will probably have to wait for the dry summer to renew any heavy movement of large units. Maybe by then Ukraine will get the re-supply they need, especially in artillery shells. And maybe the F-16s would have joined the fight too.

When things look bleak for Ukraine, I turn to one of the YouTubers who is the biggest cheerleader for the good guys. Admittedly his videos are not always the most accurate, there's some embellishment included, and some wishful thinking too. But, sometimes he offers some insightful commentary, backed with data and facts. Recently he published a video where he said no way can Russia win this war. The best they can hope for is to just keep fighting it for years, decades even. Many pundits agree with that assessment.

[dawg80]

The all-out attacks have begun at White Mountain, first day ending in total failure for the Russians. They lost 10 armored vehicles, two tanks, eight APCs, and about 75 KIA, more wounded.

White Mountain is not a true mountain, per se, but rather the result of a quarry where the over-burden was removed and piled building this "mountain." The soil is a stark white color, thus the name. It is, however, the highest point for miles around and thus an important tactical position. White Mountain is being defended by the 54th Assault Brigade and the 118th Home Defense Brigade. "Home Defense" is the same as our National Guard units.

Along the eastern edge, the bottom, of White Mountain is (was) a dense line of forest and brush. The Ukrans have mined this wooded area, including Claymores, and those Russian soldiers who managed to survive the advance across an open field, blew themselves up on the mines. The Ukrans also rained down artillery on those Russians thus the dense wooded area has quickly become rather open. The Russians launched three separate assaults, with follow-ups in each case, probing the eastern slope of the mountain. In one spot they managed to reach the first ledge which is about 1/3 the distance to the top. But, at last report, those few Russians are now pinned down and any movement by them will result in their deaths. Ukran drones are hovering over them waiting for a chance to drop grenades. The Ukrans won't even entertain the possibility of surrender, so those Russians are as good as dead already.

Unless things change strategically and markedly for Ukraine, the Russians will eventually seize White Mountain and be ready to continue their advance westward. Yes, the Russians will suffer enormous losses doing so, but they don't seem to care.

[dawg80]

Huge fire sweeping through another Russian factory, this one in Yakutsk. For those of you who played RISK, you know about that territory of Yakutsk. Russian officials have said this fire was the result of an accident, but other sources point to possible sabotage, not by Ukran operatives, but by disgruntled anti-Putin locals.

The Ukrans did obliterate another Russian HQ, this one a biggie! The overall commander and his staff in Luhansk were targeted at their "secret' HQ building, only it was not a secret to Ukrainian intelligence who have been watching that building for weeks, confirmed what it was, and utterly destroyed the whole complex with a cruise missile attack. Being reported that most, if not all, of the regional commanders were present for a meeting when the missiles struck. Oh well...guess the Russkis will need some more generals and colonels. Next!

[dawg80]

The hits just keep on coming. The Ukrans blew up another Putin oil refinery even though Biden said to them, "Don't." That one-word response is not working for Sleepy Joe, he said "Don't" to the Iranians and them rascals DID!

[dawg80]

Ukraine is developing their own long-range cruise missiles. They have taken an anti-ship missile, which they got from France, and are enhancing its engine and fuel capacity to extend the effective range to 600+ miles. This will place the entire Black Sea within range of this new missile, meaning the Putinites will not be safe anywhere on it or around it. Most importantly, in the short term, this will give the Ukrans a weapon that can take down the Kerch Bridge. The missile is an armor-piercing weapon, designed to punch through the thick armor of navy ships and then detonate inside the ship. It is usually fitted with the equivalence of 400 lbs of TNT, but the Ukrans are increasing the warhead to 1,000 lbs of TNT, for the attack on the Kerch Bridge. The bridge is close enough that the additional weight of the warhead will be offset by the missile having to carry less fuel.

Take it down! Destroy the Kerch Bridge!

That will really piss off Putin, he loves that bridge and touts it as one of his best accomplishments. It does connect Crimea (occupied territory) to Russia with both a vehicle and railroad bridge. It is a monster of a structure, admittedly well-engineered and well-built, and now the Russians have added all kinds of protective structures, redundant supports, and defensive measures to protect it from attacks. It will not be easy to take down the Kerch Bridge, but the Ukrans have to try.

[dawg80]

Ukrans struck the Russian airbase on Crimea for the third time. Reports of 30 killed, 80 wounded, with damage to buildings and two jets damaged too. The Russians just keep sending more personnel to this base just to be killed by Ukran drone/missile attacks.

Ukrans also took out Russia's best radar system, actually it's the third one destroyed since the war began. It is a very powerful, mobile radar system, capable of scanning over 500 miles in every direction. It is a series of equipment mounted on 5 separate, heavy, all-terrain vehicles (large vehicles!), with its own power source, a huge generator, and other electronics systems, in addition to standard radar. Each complete unit costs well over $100 million (USD). It has only a minimal self-defense system and as such depends on other assets to protect it. In this case the crew of this advanced radar system knew Ukran missiles were on their way, they called for help, but none was forthcoming. Another Putin asset "kaputted!" as my favorite YouTuber likes to say.

Russians unveiled an improved version of their "turtle" tank, this one with enhanced EWS, deflecting drones, and thicker armor. One such turtle tank led a convoy of two other tanks and eight APCs, successfully across open ground, delivering the convoy to a wooded area, and then was seen dashing back to the Russian lines. The Ukrans tried to concentrate on taking out the turtle tank and then admitted that was a mistake. They'll just target the other unprotected vehicles next time so that the turtle will have nothing left to deliver!

This "turtle" tank is just another innovation that all countries will have to adopt, or in some form of it, to survive on the modern battlefield. Noticeable by their absence the American Abrams Tank is nowhere to be seen lately. After having one knocked out and three others severely damaged, the Ukrans have withdrawn them from the heaviest combat areas. They are all probably being fitted with better drone protection, something they lacked before.

This war in Ukraine is a Labatory all nations better be watching and learning from.

[dawg80]

Russian major, assigned to brief Russian "press corps" (really propagandists) was killed and several members of the press severely wounded by a drone attack. They were doing a live feed near the front in Luhansk, said telecast also being monitored by Ukran intelligence, and "Bam!" no more Russian major.

A Russian TU-22 strategic bomber confirmed shot down by Ukran Patriot missiles. The TU-22 was flying about 200 miles inside of Russia launching cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities (civilian targets) when it was hit by a single Patriot missile. This marks the first such bomber shot down that far inside of Russia. The Ukrans have become expert at using their minimal resources.

Speaking of which, a Ukran artillery officer stated because they know they have only a limited supply of artillery shells, and no guarantees of being re-supplied, they are being very selective in their targeting. And, their artillerists have become so effective and efficient that it has become almost one shell = one destroyed Russian vehicle. Great example from yesterday when the Ukrans fired exactly 12 rounds of 155mm artillery and destroyed or severely damaged 9 Russian vehicles, which was 3 tanks and 6 APCs. Using scouting drones the Ukrans are very careful to wait and be precise in zeroing in before firing the big guns. Of course, it helps this was not first time the Russians have lost vehicles on that very same road. The Ukrans know the exact settings for the guns to strike specific spots on the road.

Also, in another place, the Ukrans used drones to drop mines on a road the Russians had just drove over. One tank and four APCs advanced, dropped off infantry, and then were hurrying back to the Russian lines thinking the road was 100% safe. Well, it had been, but while they were busy deploying troops, the Ukrans snuck in some drones which placed mines on the road. Bam! Bam! Bam! went three of the APCs! Ya gotta love it!

One pundit posted a video in which he surmised had Ukraine received the proper support from NATO from day one, this war would already be over, Putin soundly defeated and humiliated. He makes a convincing case retracing the history of this now 2-year+ war, focusing on some critical times when the Ukrans were poised to deliver a knockout blow but simply lacked the means. He does make some assumptions to help make his case, granted, but he does present a strong case. Of course, he also emphasizes it's not too late for NATO to step up now. The Ukrans have done a remarkable job of stymying the Putin invaders, even with their limited resources. However, the single biggest flaw in his take is the lack of manpower, boots on the ground. Yeah, more high-tech weapons and ammo greatly helps Ukraine's cause, but they lack the troops to take and hold ground. Now, either more of Ukraine's population is going to have to step up and/or NATO countries are going to have to commit troops to actual combat. I don't see the latter happening.