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Sanctions have destroyed Lukoil, Russia's second largest oil company. To generate some cash Lukoil is selling most of their foreign holdings, all those in Europe and one producing field in Africa as well. The other sanctioned oil company, Russia's largest, Rostef Oil has not made any moves, but their stock is down 15% since the sanctions were announced. The sanctions do not go into effect until November 21, but in anticipation investors are running away.
Putin showing a chink in his armor. He's proposing a ceasefire, especially at Pokrovsk so, as he claims, the world media can go in and see how "desperate the situation is for the Ukrainians." BS. He's either actually believing the lies his field commanders are telling him, or this is a ploy to allow him to sneak reinforcements closer to Pokrovsk under the guise of a ceasefire.
The famous reply from the commander at Bastogne comes to mind: "Nuts."
Goofy Russians believed their own press. They assumed they had control of Pokrovsk as their propagandists claimed and nonchalantly walked straight into an ambush. Oops!Originally Posted by dawg80
Confirmed! Ukraine has destroyed one of Russia's Oreshnik missile launchers. One of just four it is said are operational. One is in Belarus, the two remaining in Russia somewhere. Good job Ukrans!
Sweeping blackouts developing across Russia. Has reached several suburbs of Moscow. One source says 10% of Russia's electric grid has been permanently destroyed. "Permanently" really meaning until such time as Putin is ousted and Russia joins the world as a peaceful member. Ukran drones are striking power stations, power lines routinely. So far Russia has been able to make repairs, within a couple of days. Kind of like our own utility companies restoring power after storms. But, since this strategy is new to Ukraine, they are still learning. That means their tactics will change soon such that Russia's overburdened repair crews won't be able to keep up. Winter is coming on. I have been in northern Russia in January...it gets bitterly cold, below zero degrees (F).
And, there's this part. Thus far Ukraine has purposely steered clear of attacking the electric grid of the Kremlin and Putin's Moscow palace, each of which have their own power plants. Ukraine wants the Russian population to rise up against the Putin regime and if they are freezing while the powers-that-be are warm and cozy, well Russian citizens may do something about that.
In other news, from the eastern front, namely Pokrovsk, according to several reliable sources, like ISW and Jane's Think Tank, Putin has deployed 170,000 troops to the "Pokrovsk theater." Not all, obviously right there, but are within 25-30 miles serving as reserves and support. Best estimates place Ukraine's total numbers in that same theater of operation at 30,000+. Yesterday, Ukraine recaptured one of the main highways serving Pokrovsk, which the Russians had taken the previous day. It's touch and go, back and forth along this critical route, passes through the small town of Kolydyn (sp?). This farming community, or what's left of it, has changed hands at least 6 times.
The Russians have moved along the flanks of Pokrovsk, more or less surrounding the city on three sides. Only the western portion is still in Ukrainian hands. Many are calling for Ukraine to withdraw all troops from that city and the surrounding area to save the troops. But, much like Bakhmut and Avdiivka before it, this city represents a symbol. Putin wants it VERY badly and therefore, President Z wants to deny Putin that "victory." The Azov Corps (1st Corps) is operating with success north of this theater and occasionally sending in squads to assist in eliminating Russians inside of the city. But, several brigades of the 1st Corps have been sent north to Sumy and Kharkiv so it's not the whole corps at Pokrovsk. Two other brigades, not a part of the 1st Corps, have been kicking butt there. The 93rd Mechanized Infantry Brigade and the 414th Assault Brigade, which has a battalion of drone operators, have been crunching the Orcs as well. The 414th just published confirmed results for the month of October, they have killed 8,005 Russian soldiers, wounded/captured 12,175 more, destroyed 160 motorcycles, 8 quadbikes, 73 trucks, 6 tanks, 24 IFVs, 13 APCs, and 43 artillery pieces...all in the 31 days of October. The 414th is fighting north of Pokrovsk, coordinating with units of the 1st Corps. Over 90% of their success is due to drone strikes.
Putin's shadow fleet of 600+ oil tankers are now trapped! Trapped by Trump/US's sanctions. These tankers have been operating illegally but have been insured by the world's insurance companies looking for a quick buck. Now these insurance companies face their own sanctions and fines and penalties if they continue to insure tankers deemed unsafe. As a result of this international ports also face sanctions/fines/penalties if they accept uninsured tankers. So! Putin's shadow fleet of oil tankers are now sitting, anchored outside of various ports. In one case 60 such tankers, with a combined total of 40 million barrels of oil already prepaid for by India, cannot be delivered. China is facing the same fate. Oil they have purchased from Russia will not be delivered via Putin's tankers. And because of this, obviously both India and China are not buying more of Putin's oil. Too bad for India and China. This is the price you pay when you ally with a thug like Putin.
Also, while these tankers all sit idle anchored somewhere, the oligarchs who own them are shelling out many $millions in wages to the crews and other expenses that support the operation of these tankers. Ironically! the fuel these tankers burn too.
This has a ripple effect throughout the Russian economy. Russia's oil ports are now effectively shut down. So employees at these ports are being laid off. The pipelines that feed these ports and the refineries producing oil products have maxed out their own storage tanks, can't move the products, so they too are slowing production or shutting down. More layoffs. Many of Putin's refineries are in very remote, rural areas and the refinery is the main employer. These employees then support the local economy of grocery stores, other stores, restaurants, etc. What's going to happen to all those small businesses when their customers can no longer afford their services?
The end is near for Putin and his evil regime. Now is the time for the world, led by the US, to turn the screws even tighter.
It was so bold, so audacious, that it worked! What worked? Ukraine went back to "old school" tactics and actually...wait for it...helicoptered in commandoes to flank the Russians south of Pokrovsk. In this day of drones ruling the skies and the fact that helicopters are large and slow, and thus easy targets for drones, no one in the right mind would send choppers into a hotly contested warzone. And that is exactly why this worked so well. No way were the Russians expecting such an operation and they certainly weren't prepared for it.
Three Blackhawk helicopters swooped in, hovered about 3-5 feet up for less than 5 seconds and were just as quickly gone. Fifteen of Ukraine's Black Op elite force, hit the ground under cover of darkness, and then ambushed in rapid succession, four separate groups of Orcs, also commandoes of an elite Russian special ops unit. First reports claim 22 Russians KIA, 6 others wounded and captured. Then regular Russians troops appeared, having been ordered to check out a reported firefight in a suburb of Pokrovsk. This patrol was also ambushed and wiped out to a man. Latest reports say the Ukrainian special ops troops are fighting their way through Russian-held streets (buildings) aiming to hook up with Ukrainian forces coming toward them.
Ukraine won't be able to duplicate this feat again. The Russians are slow learners, but they are not totally stupid. They'll be more aware of approaching helicopters next time. Apparently, a Russian outpost heard the choppers but did not report a thing until after the shooting began in town.
Well, the Ukrainians did duplicate the ole helicopter feat again...kind of. This time they used choppers as a decoy, sending in two Blackhawks toward Russian positions, being careful to stay below treetops in open fields, made a ton of noise, and then departed. The Orcs assumed they had just dropped off commandoes again and dispatched troops to intercept them. Meanwhile in another daring feat Ukraine actually deployed paratroopers, 65 troopers, who did a low altitude jump. Surprise! they captured a key Russian position, taking 50 Orcs as POWs and not a shot was fired. They got in easily because the Russians who were supposed to be watching that flank were off chasing ghosts from the decoy ploy.
Latest report says out of the 300 or so Orcs who had penetrated into Pokrovsk about 200 or still left. The street to street, building to building combat is slow and brutal. The Russians have taken up defensive positions in buildings and thus have the advantage of waiting to ambush Ukrainian troops trying to move place to place. There is also the civilian factor, approximately 1,000 citizens, mostly elderly, are being used as human shields by the Orcs. So, the Ukrainians have to be extra careful firing on Russian positions, even as those Russians are firing on them.
Ukrainian General Budanov who is supreme commander of all Ukrainian assault forces (their offensive coordinator) is on the ground near Pokrovsk. General Syrski commands defensive measures (their defensive coordinator), he remains in Kyiv at HQ. The presence of Budanov shows how important holding Pokrovsk is for Ukraine. The Ukrainians are greatly outnumbered, 170,000 Russians vs. 30,000 Ukrainians. It is difficult for Ukraine to mount assaults when they face such numbers disparity.
Up at Kupiansk, the other HOT SPOT of combat along the eastern front, the Ukrainans have launched a daring offensive, designed to cut off those Russian units besieging the city from the north. They surprised the Russians with a nighttime attack and they nearly, almost, cut clean through the stem of the salient. The Ukrans failed to take the key town on the eastern part of the salient, through which the only major highway runs through in that area. As it was the Ukrainians sliced through 8 miles of the 9-mile wide salient. The Russians still hold the town and the highway which serves as the main supply route for those Russian units further south operating near Kupiansk. Fighting is continuing at that town so maybe the Ukrainians can take it. If they do and if they can hold it, it will soon be very bad for those Russians south of that. They'll be cutoff and trapped.
Russia has 60,000 troops operating close to Kupiansk, the Ukrainians about 20,000 according to best estimates.
A historic tidbit...
As I follow Ukraine in its war vs. the Evil Empire and marvel how well they are doing always badly outnumbered, I recall two famous events from history.
First, King Baldwin, the "boy king" led 500 Knights Templar and 3,000 infantry in an attack against The mooslim leader Sultan Saladin and his army of 26,000. The Christians attacked in broad daylight, across open fields, straight at the mooslim camp. However, Baldwin was also clever and knew the ground, so his 3,000 infantry maneuvered around Saladin's flank and took up positions overlooking ravines. The Knights Templar in their heavy armor riding their huge, and also armored warhorses crashed through the moolism lines, routing their infantry and plunged straight into 8,000 Maraluke cavalry, which were Saladin's best troops. The attack was do audacious that even the battle-hardened Maralukes broke and fled...straight into those ravines and the ambush of Baldwin's waiting infantry. Baldwin lost 1,500 killed out of his total 3,500 men, Saladin, who escaped on a camel, lost 22,000 of his 26,000 all killed.
Vlad the Impaler, the root of the Count Dracula legend, was, in reality, a brutal but great military leader. He commanded a total of 30,000 troops, mostly cavalry, and faced Sultan Mehmed II invasion army of mooslims, numbering close to 200,000. After routing several mooslim outposts/camps he killed them all and ran spikes through the bodies and left them on display as a warning to the invaders. This greatly unnerved most of Mehmed's soldiers who were mostly paid mercenaries, not really motivated to fight, except to get paid. In a daring night attack, Vlad led 7,000 of his best cavalry, his elite troops, straight into Mehmed's main encampment and routed the mooslims. In the chaos and confusion some of Mehmed's troops started fighting each other. It was total mayhem. Vlad's troopers set everything on fire, tents, supply wagons, etc. By morning Mehmed's army was wrecked. He had no choice but to withdraw, ending his invasion of Christian east Europe.
Ugh! something big happen last night, not good for Ukraine. There are conflicting reports, but clearly the Russians launched a huge attack into Pokrovsk and have seized most of the northeast quadrant of the city. One report claims the Russians sent 17,000 troops on a daring charge straight into the city. Already there are reports of hundreds of Russians killed, many more wounded, but the attack was successful insomuch as Russia now has a firm foothold in Pokrovsk. Whether it was actually 17,000 or some other number is rather irrelevant now. No way does Ukraine have the resources, the manpower, to counterattack and take it back. Pokrovsk appears lost.
President Z had, yesterday, in a much-hailed event visited near Pokrovsk, a defensive line about 8 miles west of the city. He was there to show support for his troops and present medals to many officers and soldiers. Many of the officers receiving medals are in the 1st Corps Azov who have been fighting, and winning, north of Pokrovsk. Did the Russians see this televised event and say, wow! look at all those officers away from the front, now is a good time to attack. Maybe...
Latest report, Russia has control of 40% of Pokrovsk. The bigger problem are those Ukrainian units further east and may become trapped if all of Pokrovsk is taken.
Well, what a difference a day makes. Pokrovsk is still threatened, but the imminent collapse of Ukrainian resistance there has evaporated, overnight. Apparently, after entering the city from the northeast, the bulk of those Russians withdrew back to their lines, some 5 miles back. Reports are the Russians lost 375 KIA and 500+ WIA in that assault, and have deposited more troops in the city, so now instead of 200 there may be as many as 700 Russians, which is not good. Looks like that was the purpose of the suicide charge, provide cover to get those Russian commandoes into the city. It worked. But, why not just leave the many thousands there instead of withdrawing? One YouTuber pointed out such a heavy concentration of Russians would be easy cannon fodder for Ukrainian artillery and drones. Except! there is still the matter of the human shields, Ukrainian civilians who reside in that portion of Pokrovsk. Anyway, Ukraine has gotten a reprieve and can now withdraw their troops further east in this pocket.
The battle for Pokrovsk has been going on in earnest since July, 2024, 15 months now. And since late 2023 with all the initial maneuvering and long-range attacks with artillery, drones, and fighter-bombers deploying glide bombs. Russia has lost 100,000+ KIA, and twice that in wounded, captured, missing. The loss of equipment has been staggering and has depleted Putin's reserves in tanks and other armored vehicles. All of those losses just since July, 2024. Pokrovsk is more than just a symbol, a PR struggle between Putin and Z, it has strategic value in the Donetsk Oblast. During these 15 months Ukraine has been busy building defensive lines west of the city, so Putin can no longer just walk-over the rest of Donetsk as he could have back in 2024. The Russians will lose many tens of thousands more just trying to take those defensive works, and still will be short of their goal.
More successes curtesy of the elite Ukrainian 414th Brigade, drone operators. The entire brigade, separated into 4 battalions, about 2,000 troops (operators) do nothing but drones, both offensive and defensive. They took out another Russian Rubicon operation...the Rubicon is Russia's version of the 414th, nothing but drone operations. Estimated that 30 Rubican operators were terminated when their HQ, in an abandoned building, was struck and destroyed. The 414th also took out a warehouse of Russian drones, warheads, this one on an abandoned airport in Donbas.
More hits on Putin's O&G sites, and infrastructure across Russia overnight. This has gotten so routine it's no longer news.
Two very dependable sources, Dylan Burns, and Thorkill, are reporting it is over in Pokrovsk. The 425th Assault Regiment has been sent in to hold open a gap to allow the last Ukran units to the east, two brigades the 68th and 155th, to escape. They are moving on foot to get out of the closing trap.
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