Russia

[dawg80]

Prigozhin, the Wagner Group leader, is a stark, raving lunatic and more dangerous than Putin. And that is saying something!

But, there is a little potential good news in this. Seems Prigozhin has big ambitions and has become a thorn in Putin's side. For a while ole Prig wanted to be appointed "ruler" of Ukraine, but now that it has become obvious Ukraine is not going to fall, Prig has switched to wanting something else...namely pushing Putin out of power. The Russian Defense Ministry has also started pushing back against Prig and his Wagner mercenaries, since Prig has become the darling of the Russian media and cast as a hero. Would be great for the regular Russian Army to stop cooperating with Prig's bunch; would spell doom for Putin's invasion.

[dawg80]

Meanwhile, the Russkies have made some (very little) progress gaining ground around Bakhmut but their troops are paying a very heavy price for each inch. The past several days, the Russians have lost another 1,000+ soldiers, 16 tanks/armored vehicles and Wagner Groupies have suffered over 1,500 casualties, all to capture 10 acres of pastureland and one wrecked barn.

On the Ukran side, they too continue to suffer losses, but this is a war after all. Mostly, the biggest concern is some news about disagreements between President Z and some of his generals on policy regarding Bakhmut. Some want to abandon the city and retire further west to new defensive lines in a series of hills, but President Z and at least one general want to fight it out at Bakhmut. Western observers have mixed feelings about this matter. There are pros and cons to both strategies. If the Ukrans "win" at Bakhmut then Putin is done, kaput and the Russkies will have to retreat home, tails tugged between their legs. Putin will likely lose Crimea too. There is a risk for the Ukrans trying to hold Bakhmut...the same as Hitler's gamble to hold Stalingrad...they could lose thousands of troops to capture and then that would open up the roads west to the lightly defended hills, which would probably fall as well.

BTW. how bad has it gotten for Putin? He has lost so much equipment that the Russkies have gone into "museums" and reactivated Soviet-era equipment, including tanks mothballed since the 1970's. Getting desperate.

[dawg80]

As always there is conflicting news coming out of Ukraine, specifically Bakhmut. One can choose whatever sources they want and believe completely opposing situations. With that said, the British source, The Guardian, is reporting that the Ukrans have stabilized their hold on Bakhmut and are pushing the Russkies back along sections of the front. This is consistent with the news that President Z committed to holding the city and did so by ordering significant reinforcements be sent in. Also, the early spring thaw turned the ground into mud pits and Russkie armored units, weighing many tons, are getting stuck and bogged down making them sitting ducks for Ukran artillery and drone attacks.

Now, the Ukran counter attacks are also running into issues with the soggy ground so observers say they will not be able to advance very far, and it's mostly light infantry units that are having any luck. But, the Ukrans don't have to advance very far to secure Bakhmut, holding key roads for resupply and troop movements. The defenders, the Ukrans, have the advantage of fighting from fixed positions, it's the attackers who have to maneuver across vast expanses of open land and have to bring superior numbers to have a chance of success.

In the bigger picture, the Ukrans are growing stronger by the day, securing better equipment from the West, while Putin's pitiful army is resorting to outdated tanks and other inferior equipment. Morale is at an all-time low for the Putinites, with mass desertions and violent overthrows of unit command structure. The Ukrans have grown weary of the war too, with volunteer numbers shrinking, and President Z adhering to Western advice not to initiate a draft (not yet, anyway). Which is why the fight for Bakhmut has become the key to the whole war. It serves very little to no strategic value, for either side, but has become a symbol of the will of each side.

[dawg80]

16 dead and 4 wounded

The Russkies, in this case Wagner mercenaries, have become so unnerved by Ukranian commando raids they are trigger-happy. Recently 10 Russkies entered a trench to relieve the 10 soldiers on duty there. The Russkies in the trench assumed they were Ukran commandos and opened fire. The relieving squad assumed the Ukrans had captured the trench and returned fire. When it was over only 4 had survived, all wounded. Nearby Ukran troops, real ones, reported the gunfire and asked if any of their guys were attacking the trench. Their company commander told them to hold fast as he had no information about an incursion. That's because there was none. This type of friendly fire incident has been occurring with some regularity among poorly trained Russkie troops, and some of it has been on purpose as the rank-n-file have been murdering their officers at times.

A video source called Tenar has lots of drone videos showing Ukran raids into Russkie trenches, bunkers, and other defensive positions. They are brutal. In most cases the Russkies suffer 100% casualties as the Ukrans are in no mood to take prisoners. One such video shows two Russkies, hands in the air, having just crawled out a window of a bunker which had been attacked with grenades. You can see the Ukran soldiers gesturing at them and after the two moved more into the open they were machinegunned down. Oh well...Sic semper tyrannis.

[DawgyNWindow]

One such video shows two Russkies, hands in the air, having just crawled out a window of a bunker which had been attacked with grenades. You can see the Ukran soldiers gesturing at them and after the two moved more into the open they were machinegunned down.

War crime.

I would have likely done the same, but a war crime nonetheless.

[Blue Dawg]

War crime.

I would have likely done the same, but a war crime nonetheless.

Unfortunately the only thing that matters for a war crime is who wins in the end.

[dawg80]

War crime.

I would have likely done the same, but a war crime nonetheless.

It's a crime to invade your neighbor without provocation.

If someone invades my home and threatens my family, they shouldn't expect any adherence to the Geneva Convention. May God have mercy on them...because I won't.

[dawg80]

Good news! The Ukrans have pushed the Russkies back in southern Bakhmut and have reopened a major highway for their use.

Wagner units have been routed and pushed out of the suburbs in southern portions of the city. The Russkies had gotten close enough to bring concentrated artillery fire onto the southern-most highway denying its use to the Ukrans. But that threat has been eliminated and convoys are again rolling into Bakhmut bringing supplies and reinforcements.

All along the Bakhmut front the Russkie offensive has ground to a halt. As was pointed out, all the Ukrans have to do to emerge victorious is not to lose. The Putinites have to take Bakhmut if they hope to capture and then hold all of Donbas. There is some debate if the city holds any real strategic value, as the Russkies could isolate the city and bypass it if they choose to and are capable of doing that militarily. True, the Russkies wouldn't want to leave an armed fortress in their rear, provided the Ukrans could resupply their troops there via air-drops. What is very clear, Bakhmut has become a symbol for both sides. And, Putin has exhausted his army and lost his best equipment in the now 7-month long struggle for Bakhmut. It is very revealing that initially Putin so lightly regarded the Ukrans he assigned just two brigades to take Bakhmut. Well, that was 7 months ago, both of those brigades have ceased to exist, completely destroyed, and over 100,000 other Russkies (both regular Russian soldiers and Wagner mercenaries) have joined those 7,000 troops in a grave.

And then, what if the Putinites manage to take Bakhmut? So what! they will then face an even tougher nut to crack in the hills to the west, which the Ukrans have been busy fortifying. Doesn't look like Putin will be taking all of Donbas which he has stated is a must. He made a pledge to take and annex the eastern provinces and he is not delivering on that.

Putin is losing.

[dawg80]

Today Putin announced the suspension of any age restrictions for conscripting. Yikes! Getting really desperate now. Yo, Grandpa Yuri, get your 80-yr-old butt over to Ukraine and attack Bakhmut! Of course, with the de-mothballing of the Soviet-era tanks they will need fellows who actually operated them back in the day.

Putin is losing.

[dawg80]

Actually timed it...and it lasted 12 seconds

Russian tanks and APCs attempted to make a swift advance across an open field to enter the city of Vuhledar. Only the lead vehicles all hit mines, and the remaining vehicles made an 180 degree turn and raced just as fast the other way. Comical! The Ukrans have the 155mm Howitzer launched anti-tank mines they can quickly, and accurately "deploy" anywhere. The mines are launched from a Howitzer, bury into the ground (mud) and wait to be run over by something heavy, then Boom! Using drones as spotters the artillerymen can drop the mines in front of an enemy column and also drop some behind them too, such that ground just passed over and safe, is no longer safe!

The video, in actual speed, is funny. Russkie tanks and APCs all showed their tails and sped away.

In related news, the Russian commander in the Vuhledar region has been sacked. General Muradov promised to win the war by taking Vuhledar...nope. So, next!

[dawg80]

Wagner troops said to have captured some empty buildings in an industrial sector of Bakhmut. Ukraine only had light units there, mostly snipers. But Wagner Group leader Prigozhin has made a big show of it parading around in front of cameras, mostly his own paid-for media and making some inflammatory statements. Prigozhin has contradicted Putin's claims that Russia is fighting NATO and Nazis. Putin tried to justify the invasion by making false claims that Ukraine was a haven for Nazis...the ridiculous labeling of the Azoz Battalion (now regiment) as Nazis being an example of the lies...and later, when that stupidity was roundly debunked, Putin switched to making claims he was battling NATO itself, who has designs on invading Russia. Completely stupid and the wild rantings of a madman.

Prigozhin has ambitions on becoming a ruler of some country. Most political pundits who follow Russian politics say Prigozhin is trying to discredit Putin, cast him as a danger to Russia itself and wholly unfit to lead the country. Prigozhin could say the same things about the US's current "leader." Any rift between Prigozhin and Putin and his generals is a great thing for Ukraine and the rest of the world. So, as he pursues his own political ambitions, namely displacing Putin as "president" of Russia, Prigozhin undermines the whole Russkie effort in Ukraine.

[dawg80]

GREAT NEWS!!!

Turkey's parliament has voted to approve Finland joining NATO. Turkey had been holding out delaying Finland's inclusion. Well, that hurdle has been cleared so hopefully the final, official, steps will be taken. This is Putin's worst nightmare, and he brought it on himself.

Meanwhile, Putin has ordered another 147,000 soldiers to Ukraine. Definitely getting desperate! Western observers are scoffing at the quality of these troops. Last week Putin removed all age restrictions for his national guard, which (different than our national guard) is Putin's personal army, over which he has direct control. Putin had, at first, withheld his guard units from Ukraine, not wanting to have them decimated, but when things went bad for him at Bakhmut he started committing his guard.

[dawg80]

Can be gut wrenching. As much as I am rooting against the Putinites, I am reminded that the average soldier is still a human being, and some of these videos are disturbing.

Example: video of a Russian tank wallowing in the mud, caught in a field, trying to reach a road with solid ground. Only one of the tanks doesn't make it. The other two Russian tanks manage to gain the road and then saving themselves speed away leaving the third tank to fend for itself. Ukran troops pin it down with machinegun fire preventing the crew from abandoning the tank and then a team with an anti-tank rocket launcher maneuver around it. The rocket punches a hole in the tank, igniting ammo inside and soon flames are pouring out the hatches. The hatch on the turret is pushed open, but the occupant is consumed by the flames. All five crewmen perish. The Ukrans then cheer when the ammo explodes and the turret lands about 30 yards away.

Putin has lost 3,600 tanks and many thousands more in armored vehicles. The Russkies have suffered the most losses in tanks/armored vehicles since World War II in any war. The losses are staggering.

This morning, a Russian bomber, one of the most modern Putin has, was shot down over Ukraine. Putin does not "own the sky" as his air force has been bested by the Ukrans. And his navy has completely withdrawn away from Ukraine to save it from more embarrassing losses. Two Russian corvettes were severely damaged in the Dnipra River trying to escape to the Black Sea. One of the ships was disabled and captured, the other managed to make it out but was left drifting at sea. A Russian tug tried to get to it but was damaged and driven away by Ukran shore batteries. The helpless corvette was last seen being carried away by the tide and it is assumed the Russian tug was able to get to it for a tow back to port.

I think Xi is taking note of all of this. And in spite of all his blustering has had second thoughts about attempting an invasion of Taiwan. On paper the Chicoms should be able to steamroll Taiwan. But then that same paper had said the same about Putin's invasion of Ukraine. And Xi has an enormous problem that Putin did not...having to cross open ocean with his invasion force.

[DawgyNWindow]

Our "one China" policy insinuates that Taiwan is a part of China anyway. The UN does not recognize them as a sovereign nation and we have no embassy there.

Our "one China" policy is just plain STUPID. A military incursion by the CCP into Taiwan will be a civil war by our own standards, with Taiwan being the rebel state.

I guess some of our brilliant (sarcasm) civil war historians here will call the Taiwanese "traitors" like they did the soldiers of the confederate states. And I suppose we will be enablers of that traitorous behavior.

[Blue Dawg]

Our "one China" policy insinuates that Taiwan is a part of China anyway. The UN does not recognize them as a sovereign nation and we have no embassy there.

Our "one China" policy is just plain STUPID. A military incursion by the CCP into Taiwan will be a civil war by our own standards, with Taiwan being the rebel state.

I guess some of our brilliant (sarcasm) civil war historians here will call the Taiwanese "traitors" like they did the soldiers of the confederate states. And I suppose we will be enablers of that traitorous behavior.

I wish the Taiwanese the best...as the Taiwanese.

Ukraine, a US client state surrounded by other client states, is a lot easier for us to laund- I mean, supply with war materials. Taiwan would entail a magnitude of difficulty higher with an enemy a lot stronger at the same time. I imagine (but can't be sure) that the Chinese state would not be as forgiving of US involvement as Russia is (or more able to do something about it, depending on your perspective).