Russia

[dawg80]

Putin stands to lose half of his shadow fleet as now insurance companies are announcing they will no longer insure tankers operating in the Black Sea. Half of Putin's shadow fleet are foreign-owned ships that Russia leases. If the tanker is blown up, the owners depend on the insurance, of course. But now insurance companies are saying not anymore. And some NATO countries are "talking tough" saying they are about to start seizing any ships not meeting international maritime laws for registration and safety. I'll believe it when I see it.

Retired US general Ben Hodges has a YouTube channel where he has been following the Ukraine war. Recently he has been commenting that the war is no longer a stalemate, Ukraine is winning. It is true that Ukraine has enjoyed some recent tactical victories, but strategically, not much has changed that I can see. General Hodges is better qualified than me to make such judgements, so I hope he is right.

[DallasDog]

If his shadow fleet does go down, you are looking at a very desperate Putin. I could see him doing something really dangerous/stupid even by his standards.

[dawg80]

Another tactical success for Ukraine. Russian troops in Ivanivka were crushed. It was a very dangerous position for those Russians. They were in a portion of the city north of the Volka River which is covered by high hills. One bridge remained and it has been damaged denying its use for heavy vehicles. This was a trap for the Orcs just waiting to be sprung. Yesterday Ukrainian marines supporting several tanks swept in from the hills liberating this portion of Ivanivka. Confirmed reports of 53 Orcs KIA, 19 taken prisoner, and a couple of dozen more escaping across the bridge on foot. Ukraine now holds northern Ivanivka and are digging in to defend this part of the city.

This action is typical of what has been happening the past several weeks. With a few exceptions along the 600-mile front, it is Ukraine enjoying some wins.

[dawg80]

If his shadow fleet does go down, you are looking at a very desperate Putin. I could see him doing something really dangerous/stupid even by his standards.

Some pundits doubt if Putin's nukes even work. Putin ordered a show of force testing some nukes and their missiles to carry them in the wake of Trump's announcement a month ago that the US was going to resume nuke testing. Thus far, the Russkis have only managed to embarrass themselves. One small, a tactical nuke, warhead was to be set off at Russia's testing site, and it failed to detonate. Experts say the electronics failed, but it is not clear if the fault was actually in the warhead itself or the testing platform. Either way it was a major setback for Putin. Then one of his ICBMs, a Satan II (yes, this is Putin's name for it, officially) blew up shortly after takeoff, destroying the launch pad. It was not carrying any kind of warhead as it was a test of the missile. Didn't matter, kaboom! LOL!

Russia is nothing more than a paper tiger. It's nuke bomber fleet, the Bears and Backfire bombers, were a joke when new, and are now especially jokes. It is very old technology and most of the fleet cannot even get off the ground. The sanctions have hindered Russia's efforts for spare parts, so the Russkis have had to cannibalize some of the planes just to keep a few flying. In the event of a "nuclear war" any of Putin's bombers attempting to strike the US, wouldn't make it. Our fighters would intercept them way out over open ocean. Some of Russia's ICBMs could be a threat, provided they can keep them operating.

That's the reality for the US. For Europe, well, a good portion of it is within the range of Russia's mid-range and short-range missiles which are nuke capable.

Putin is losing the war and is losing control of his own country. In the next 6 months or so, Putin's biggest problem won't be Ukraine. It will be his own survival as dictator and as a living person.

[DallasDog]

Russia has always had equipment problems, in quality and even in quantity for some of their weapons. But it really only takes one and nukes are a game not worth playing. I could see Putin realizing his launch platforms (airborne or ground based) are working and moving to smaller yield backpack nukes/dirty bombs. not as devastating but devastating enough.

I hate for civilian suffering, but if I were Ukraine, I would continue to knock out the power grid. Ukraine can't physically cross the border and remove Putin, but his own people theoretically can. Even if they can't the resources, he would have to divert back to Russian to protect himself would give the Ukrainians the relief they need to completely rest and refit, and a rested and dug in Ukrainian army has already proven to be more than Russia can actually handle.

[dawg80]

Bad news from the P-M battle. Reports are the Russians have encircled Myrnoghad. The Ukrainian units, the 68th and 155th brigades have been successfully evacuated from the pocket, which is the most important thing.

How did this happen when it appeared the Ukrainians were pushing the Orcs back? The Russians had four brigades, about 20,000 troops, stuck in a stalemate 20 miles to the south at Huliapole. The past week, they were rotating brigades out of the fighting at P-M with the better rested units south. Two nights ago, when it looked like another rotation was occurring, the withdrawing brigade suddenly did a 180 and joined the new brigade in an attack. The Ukrainians responded but they were outnumbered and reinforcements were sent to hold the line at Pokrovsk weakening the defenses around Myrnoghad. About 15,000 Russians then launched an attack flanking the defenses at Myrnoghad. Latest reports say there now about 3,000 Ukrainians trapped inside of Myrnoghad, completely surrounded.

Then an hour ago the very latest report says Ukraine has retaken the tiny village of Ravine which sits on the highway between Pokrovsk and Myrnoghad, opening an escape route for those troops in the city. Problem is you can't just get up and walk out due to swarming drones and if the outer defenses are abandoned, the Russians will rush in catching withdrawing Ukrainians in the open.

Another YouTuber has released a video saying the reports of encirclement are greatly exaggerated. So, as usual, we will have to wait for more reports/information.

[DallasDog]

A little strategy and superior numbers can still make a difference on the battlefield even in today's modern warfare. If this were any other country, I would believe that there are some competent commanders in the Russian forces and if the politicians (Putin et al) would stay out of it that Ukraine would have fallen by now.

With Russia its different. Putin like Stalin probably removed every competent commander from duty long ago, because having a brain means they are a threat.

The meat grinder/cannon fodder tactic has always been their go to strategy. They could use it to defeat Napoleon because as the aggressor his supply line became too long to feed and refit his men. They could simply withdraw and waste lives until they won. With Hitler it worked in places like Stalingrad and the eastern front because he was having to expend resources to fight a two-front war on a world scale.

With Ukraine being able to bunker down and their supply lines coming from safety and the modern delivery of those supplies, this being essentially a one front war, this isn't the kind of war Russia usually fare well in, and they haven't in general.

[dawg80]

One of the most telling facts regarding Putin's failure in Ukraine is this. Back in February, 2022 Putin's army sat on the Ukrainian border with designs on and claims to capture all of Ukraine, all the way to the Polish border. Well, if a regular little snail had started its trek across Ukraine at the same time, guess what! it would have reached Poland months ago. Putin's snails have made it only 20% across in the same time period. And to mock the Russians, several months ago a Polish TV network staged a snail reaching their border from Ukraine. LOL! Of course, they set the snail down at the border just to video it, but the point was made. This has become the butt of jokes and memes aimed at Putin.

I am disappointed in Trump and his lack of action on behalf of Ukraine. The best thing he could do is to officially "wash his hands" of it and not speak of the Ukraine-Russia war again. I am equally tired of the Europeans, like Merz and Macron, continually bashing Trump/USA on this matter. They are like welfare/food stamps recipients screaming their families are hungry and blaming Trump for not giving them handouts. And then! claiming they "hold all the cards" and can deal with Putin. Well, great, deal with Putin and STFU!

Meanwhile, while all these "heads of state" play rhetoric games, real Ukrainians are dying, some on the battlefield and many in their beds after another terrorist attack.

[dawg80]

Breaking news, from literally 5 minutes ago as I type this: good news from Kupiansk. About 200 Russians surrendered north of that city after being surrounded in the forest. This is huge as the Russian supply line comes in, or did, from the north on a road through the forest. This is being reported as one of three pockets of Orcs hunkered down in the forest north of Kupiansk. This is an initial report, so it is not clear which of the three pockets this was. But, if it is the one closest to the supply road, then the Russians further south are now cut off from supplies and reinforcements.

The past three months there has been two main theaters of active combat, the P-M area, and Kupiansk. Yes, small fights erupt along the 600-mile front, but it has been in these two areas where Putin has concentrated his efforts and of course the Ukrainians have had to respond.

Hoping for confirmation on this news.

[DallasDog]

I agree at this point trump needs to say he is done with the war. I was never for direct intervention, but intel and advisors should have always been available, and limited weapons. Humanitarian aid should always been flowing to the people. Where I soured on US participation the most is, like you mentioned, the constant two-faced bitching from Europe. I am tired of solving their problems, taxing our system and economy for their benefit, and then being trashed for it.

They have complained enough out of one side of their mouth about us and then talked about being big boy enough to handle it themselves out of the other, all the while buying oil from Putin, which does not help end the war.

I also get what Trump has been doing trying to destabilize Putin's support in the region through trade deals etc. but as long as Putin is selling oil and China has his back, I don't think the rest is enough to topple Putin in the time that is needed.

[dawg80]

Yes, on the news from Kupiansk. The Ukrainians have cut the supply road serving the Russians in that city. Russians started using drones to ferry in supplies and ammo, but now heavy snow and winter storms have blanketed the area making that difficult to impossible. There are reports of mass surrenders by Russian troops all along the front, but those are mostly greatly exaggerated. No confirmed reports of the numbers, but it is happening.

The situation at Mrynoghad has stabilized, mostly due to the weather. Heavy snows are falling and both sides have hunkered down. The Ukrainians managed to get supplies/ammo into their troops in that city prior to the snowstorm, but if the storm continues then they will face the same situation as the encircled Orcs at Kupiansk. Have seen video of the front and the snow is VERY heavy. In 48 hours wrecked vehicles have literally been buried in snow.

In the Black Sea, however, Ukrainian sea drones are still operating, and they struck another of Putin's ghost fleet, an oil tanker. This one named the Drasthan, and it is owned by a Gambian company. The insurance on this tanker was said to be good through Dec. 31st, which is why Ukraine selected it to attack. Ukraine is TRYING not to cause economic harm to other nations*** but this is a war.

*** I find it absolutely amazing that Ukraine, a small country that has been invaded and is under heavy attack, is trying to be selective as it defends itself. There were 5 oil tankers moving through the Black Sea at that time, and Ukraine took the time to identify each of them and check to see what the insurance status was on each, since all 5 are tankers leased by Putin, but owned by other nations. Some of the tankers have already had their insurance cancelled and are leaving the service of Putin. Ukraine will allow those to peacefully depart for home.

Putin/Russia owns about half of Putin's ghost fleet. He has, or had, 600+ tankers operating illegally around the world. So, he is down to about 300, all owned by Russia. Those tankers are very much in the crosshairs of the Ukrainians.

[DallasDog]

EU nations should have seized any in there ports long ago, but they wanted to talk out of both sides of their mouths and keep buying Russian oil. With nations pulling the uninsured tankers, and the only ones left operating being mostly Putin owned, I wonder what the news coverage will be like if one pulls up into a EU port to unload oil.