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Thread: Tech's best possible, REALISTIC conference movement

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    Tech's best possible, REALISTIC conference movement

    So obviously the best conference movement would be for Tech to join any P5 conference, especially the SEC. But we are here to talk about REALISTIC possibilities; the SEC or a P5 invite is not realistically happening. So what could be Tech's best, realistic move?

    Well I think we could make it to the AAC, but this is based on a number of exact scenarios happening. Based on our budget, attendance, name and achievements, I think we are 5th or 6th in line to get into the AAC, depending on who is taken. In no order I think we are competing with UAB, Southern Miss, Rice, Marshall, and App St/Georgia Southern to get into the AAC based on football and geography. (I include Georgia Southern because they seem to be a package deal and App St. football is the real prize). So how do we get into the AAC? The AAC is at 11 members currently. We need them to lose 6 members to have a for sure invite and not be left out.

    The B12 therefore needs to take all 6 members. If the B12 goes after MWC or BYU, then they'll take less from the AAC and that means a higher possibility of getting passed up. Right now the B12 is at 8 members. Maybe they would go to 14 but if they want 12, then hopefully the B1G would take Iowa St. and Kansas since they are AAU members, fit the geographic footprint and the move adds Kansas basketball.

    Now who should the B12 take? First, for our sake, we need Tulane taken. Not they will be taken first, but I don't think Tulane would allow another Louisiana school, so if they are not taken, then our shot is dead in the water. It's not improbable that a Tulane invite would happen. New Orleans is great for recruiting, Tulane is a prestigious academic school, and it's close geographically to the current B12. Cincinnati should be taken by the B12 for a travel partner with WVU. Houston should be taken to shore up the Houston/South TX area. Memphis should be taken for geography and basketball. Then they could go for UCF and USF as best of the rest G5 and as another set of travel partners in the eastern time zone. That would get them to 12 members. SMU and Tulsa should not be taken as OKST and TCU don't want more competition in their turf. New B12 by east/west division but they could do a north/south division too.

    New BIGXII
    West:
    Kansas St.
    Okla St.
    Texas Tech
    TCU
    Baylor
    Houston

    East:
    WVU
    Cincinnati
    Memphis
    Tulane
    UCF
    USF




    So that would leave the AAC with just 5:
    Temple
    Navy
    East Carolina
    Tulsa
    SMU

    In order to keep Navy in the conference, they need another Texas team so they always have a game in that recruiting area. Rice takes Houston's place, helps keep the conference in the city and adds to academic prestige. Marshall is brought in for its football to replace Cincinnati and give Navy, Temple and ECU a close-by rival. That leaves a huge geographic hole in the middle of the conference between the Tulsa/SMU/Rice side and the four northeast members. At 7 members, they add 5 more to plug in the middle. They take the best programs in the middle- UAB, USM, App St, GS and finally LaTech. This bring the AAC to 12. They can move Navy to the west for football recruiting. The new AAC:

    New AAC
    West:
    Tulsa
    SMU
    Rice
    LaTech
    USM
    Navy

    East:
    Temple
    ECU
    Marshall
    App St.
    GS
    UAB



    That's how I think everything would have to go for us to have the best possible, realistic conference realignment.

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    Re: Tech's best possible, REALISTIC conference movement

    That'd be wonderful, but ULL would likely beat us out for that spot if Tulane wasn't there to stop it.

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    Re: Tech's best possible, REALISTIC conference movement

    Quote Originally Posted by brtransplant View Post
    That'd be wonderful, but ULL would likely beat us out for that spot if Tulane wasn't there to stop it.
    It's a possibility. Our best best would be our relationship with SMU and Tulsa already from the WAC and our closer proximity to them. Our academics and not being a directional school name would help also.

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    Re: Tech's best possible, REALISTIC conference movement

    Haven't you seen the reports the Tech & ULL going to Big12.

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    Re: Tech's best possible, REALISTIC conference movement

    Quote Originally Posted by Dawgonit View Post
    It's a possibility. Our best best would be our relationship with SMU and Tulsa already from the WAC and our closer proximity to them. Our academics and not being a directional school name would help also.
    In the eyes of the "evil empire" (ESPN) ULaLa is not a directional school! The University of Louisiana system has allowed ULaLa to highjack the "University of Louisiana" moniker! Their performance over the past couple of years in several sports along with the "Belch's" performance have out performed Tech and CUSA! Let's face it...Tech and CUSA is now in the back seat.

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    Re: Tech's best possible, REALISTIC conference movement

    Once this shakes out and there are 3 to 4 “super” conferences… SEC, B1G, ACC, and maybe PAC 12, the next level will be AAC, MWC, and some type of combo probably of the remaining CUSA/Belch teams.. the money from the super conferences and NIL will put everyone else at a crossroads financially and talent wise. They are already discussing on sports talk about how schools will have to decide to stay up or drop down based off of their resources and support.

    The money arms race for almost all G5 schools has been over for a few years but this will create the final separation.
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    Re: Tech's best possible, REALISTIC conference movement

    Quote Originally Posted by Lotsudo View Post
    In the eyes of the "evil empire" (ESPN) ULaLa is not a directional school! The University of Louisiana system has allowed ULaLa to highjack the "University of Louisiana" moniker! Their performance over the past couple of years in several sports along with the "Belch's" performance have out performed Tech and CUSA! Let's face it...Tech and CUSA is now in the back seat.
    Yep! CUSA is the worst FBS football conference. But! the MAC is just barely above us so there's hope we can dig ourselves out of the cellar...maybe. It is sad to read the nonsense on the CUSA forum of all those fans of CUSA schools actually believing their pitiful school will be relevant in some major realignment scenario. Granted getting out of CUSA would be a step up for any school, but it simply is not happening.

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    Re: Tech's best possible, REALISTIC conference movement

    We will be fighting basically over half a cookie...

    Not even a whole piece of cake -

    IRS needs to step in and make all donations to Athletic Club Foundations non-deductible - that may bring back a tad bit of sanity to college athletics (which is an oxymoron if you think about mentioning the IRS and sanity in the same sentence)
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    Re: Tech's best possible, REALISTIC conference movement

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwayne From Minden View Post
    We will be fighting basically over half a cookie...

    Not even a whole piece of cake -

    IRS needs to step in and make all donations to Athletic Club Foundations non-deductible - that may bring back a tad bit of sanity to college athletics (which is an oxymoron if you think about mentioning the IRS and sanity in the same sentence)
    I agree with this.

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    Re: Tech's best possible, REALISTIC conference movement

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwayne From Minden View Post
    We will be fighting basically over half a cookie...

    Not even a whole piece of cake -

    IRS needs to step in and make all donations to Athletic Club Foundations non-deductible - that may bring back a tad bit of sanity to college athletics (which is an oxymoron if you think about mentioning the IRS and sanity in the same sentence)
    Which is why a MBB team that can make the tournament on a regular basis will become even more valuable once the super conferences come online. It’s always been the best possible ROI, but now for a lot of schools it maybe the only significant way to make any money.
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    Re: Tech's best possible, REALISTIC conference movement

    Quote Originally Posted by brtransplant View Post
    That'd be wonderful, but ULL would likely beat us out for that spot if Tulane wasn't there to stop it.
    Based on what? One really good year of football?

    Look of it through the eyes of a university administrator and/or president who has seen how this has all played out over the past 20 years.

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    Re: Tech's best possible, REALISTIC conference movement

    Quote Originally Posted by Dawgonit View Post
    So obviously the best conference movement would be for Tech to join any P5 conference, especially the SEC. But we are here to talk about REALISTIC possibilities; the SEC or a P5 invite is not realistically happening. So what could be Tech's best, realistic move?
    This is a good look at things.

    At the same time...

    I don't get the sense Georgia Southern is tied to App State in a way they might have been 5 years ago.

    I also don't get the sense South Florida is tied to Central Florida the way they might have been 10 years ago.

    Rice is in the same boat. They would a be a university president favorite, but would ESPN sign off on their membership? That's who controls AAC media. Also, Rice would likely have a negative impact on the AAC every year if the G5 has a guaranteed spot in a 12-team playoff.

    I'd put the chances of Tulane to the Big 12 at less than 10% under most circumstances. The general sense is that they would never be able to keep up from a competitive standpoint. What's also going against them is that there was such an incredible backlash when they were invited to the Big East.

    And Tulane would have no problem being in a conference with Tech. They voted for us to join CUSA both in 2004 and 2012.

    This round of realignment appears to be more based on brands and competitiveness rather than markets.
    Last edited by The Historian; 07-29-2021 at 12:15 PM.

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    Re: Tech's best possible, REALISTIC conference movement

    Quote Originally Posted by The Historian View Post
    This is a good look at things.

    At the same time...

    I don't get the sense Georgia Southern is tied to App State in a way they might have been 5 years ago.

    I also don't get the sense South Florida is tied to Central Florida the way they might have been 10 years ago.

    I'd put the chances of Tulane to the Big 12 at less than 10% under most circumstances. The general sense is that they would never be able to keep up from a competitive standpoint. What's also going against them is that there was such an incredible backlash when they were invited to the Big East.

    And Tulane would have no problem being in a conference with Tech. They voted for us to join CUSA both in 2004 and 2012.

    This round of realignment appears to be more based on brands and competitiveness rather than markets.
    You are exactly right about Tulane (ULL hurts them much more than us in market share). You are, also, correct about it being about brand and competitiveness this round. Tech holds up decently with that - not great, but decent. We have a much bigger name than people in North Louisiana realize.

    I still say Tech should get the ball rolling OURSELVES! Start working on a very competitive group with name recognition in the G5. The goal would be to form a 16 team league that would be hard to ignore. It may not be P5, but it would get the most attention. Base it on name recognition and you have something worth noticing. We don't need to wait - we need to lead NOW and be the one arranging the talks. We do NOT need to wait around and hope to be invited by another group that has already started talking. Grab every nationally known G5 school you can and invite them to a summit for discussions. Make it known that we can form a powerful conference in name and be competitive. Not only would that conference get a great TV deal for a G5, there may be room later on for another P5 conference - even if not, a conference of 16 well known G5's could not be completely ignored.

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    Re: Tech's best possible, REALISTIC conference movement

    Quote Originally Posted by champion110 View Post
    I still say Tech should get the ball rolling OURSELVES! Start working on a very competitive group with name recognition in the G5.
    The problem with what you're proposing is that the NCAA puts a lot of roadblocks on new conferences or associations like this. If not, you'd hear about talks over this.

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    Re: Tech's best possible, REALISTIC conference movement

    Quote Originally Posted by The Historian View Post
    The problem with what you're proposing is that the NCAA puts a lot of roadblocks on new conferences or associations like this. If not, you'd hear about talks over this.
    It can be done, especially if it is an attractive conference. That is how the now AAC and how CUSA came to be... Someone started the talks and invited a core group. Once a decision is made, you get through the roadblocks.

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