So obviously the best conference movement would be for Tech to join any P5 conference, especially the SEC. But we are here to talk about REALISTIC possibilities; the SEC or a P5 invite is not realistically happening. So what could be Tech's best, realistic move?
Well I think we could make it to the AAC, but this is based on a number of exact scenarios happening. Based on our budget, attendance, name and achievements, I think we are 5th or 6th in line to get into the AAC, depending on who is taken. In no order I think we are competing with UAB, Southern Miss, Rice, Marshall, and App St/Georgia Southern to get into the AAC based on football and geography. (I include Georgia Southern because they seem to be a package deal and App St. football is the real prize). So how do we get into the AAC? The AAC is at 11 members currently. We need them to lose 6 members to have a for sure invite and not be left out.
The B12 therefore needs to take all 6 members. If the B12 goes after MWC or BYU, then they'll take less from the AAC and that means a higher possibility of getting passed up. Right now the B12 is at 8 members. Maybe they would go to 14 but if they want 12, then hopefully the B1G would take Iowa St. and Kansas since they are AAU members, fit the geographic footprint and the move adds Kansas basketball.
Now who should the B12 take? First, for our sake, we need Tulane taken. Not they will be taken first, but I don't think Tulane would allow another Louisiana school, so if they are not taken, then our shot is dead in the water. It's not improbable that a Tulane invite would happen. New Orleans is great for recruiting, Tulane is a prestigious academic school, and it's close geographically to the current B12. Cincinnati should be taken by the B12 for a travel partner with WVU. Houston should be taken to shore up the Houston/South TX area. Memphis should be taken for geography and basketball. Then they could go for UCF and USF as best of the rest G5 and as another set of travel partners in the eastern time zone. That would get them to 12 members. SMU and Tulsa should not be taken as OKST and TCU don't want more competition in their turf. New B12 by east/west division but they could do a north/south division too.
New BIGXII
West:
Kansas St.
Okla St.
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
Houston
East:
WVU
Cincinnati
Memphis
Tulane
UCF
USF
So that would leave the AAC with just 5:
Temple
Navy
East Carolina
Tulsa
SMU
In order to keep Navy in the conference, they need another Texas team so they always have a game in that recruiting area. Rice takes Houston's place, helps keep the conference in the city and adds to academic prestige. Marshall is brought in for its football to replace Cincinnati and give Navy, Temple and ECU a close-by rival. That leaves a huge geographic hole in the middle of the conference between the Tulsa/SMU/Rice side and the four northeast members. At 7 members, they add 5 more to plug in the middle. They take the best programs in the middle- UAB, USM, App St, GS and finally LaTech. This bring the AAC to 12. They can move Navy to the west for football recruiting. The new AAC:
New AAC
West:
Tulsa
SMU
Rice
LaTech
USM
Navy
East:
Temple
ECU
Marshall
App St.
GS
UAB
That's how I think everything would have to go for us to have the best possible, realistic conference realignment.