Skip Holtz Specials at Tech, A History of Tech 4th Quarter Comebacks and Collapses

[LongtimeDawgfan]

I call it “Skipperized”. example - well we got Skipperized again last night.

[Blue Dawg]

Leading after 3 quarters--55-12 (.821)
Tied after 3 quarters--2-1 (.667)
Trailing after 3 quarters--4-29 (.121)

The 12 losses when leading after 3 quarters plus the 2015 Kansas State game tied 13-13 after 3 are the 13 losses listed in the top post.
The 4 wins when trailing after 3 quarters plus the 2019 Rice game tied 14-14 after 3 are the 5 wins listed in the top post.
The other tie game after 3 was the 2016 Navy win where Tech never trailed in the 4th quarter.

And for those who may wonder, there was a prequel to the Tech history. In his three seasons at USF, Holtz went 16-21. The Bulls lost 7 times (33.3% of the losses) when having a lead at some point in the 4th quarter with 2 double-digit blown leads. Three of the 16 wins were 4th quarter comebacks with one double-digit comeback.

So 87% NFL average vs 82% Holtz. That's honestly not as bad as I thought.

[FriscoDawg]

So 87% NFL average vs 82% Holtz. That's honestly not as bad as I thought.

6 double-digit 4th quarter leads blown (8 if you add in USF) is the most damning stat. And that's in only 140 total games Holtz has coached at the FBS level.

[Blue Dawg]

6 double-digit 4th quarter leads blown (8 if you add in USF) is the most damning stat. And that's in only 140 total games Holtz has coached at the FBS level.

Yea I'm not trying to excuse him. I think there's a lot of stat digging we could do here. But we know what we see with our own eyes.

[FriscoDawg]

Yea I'm not trying to excuse him. I think there's a lot of stat digging we could do here. But we know what we see with our own eyes.

I knew it was more than 10 leads blown late without seriously counting. The 6 double-digit leads was about what I expected.

In 103 games, 3-5 blown 4th quarter leads with maybe 1 double-digit blown lead would be the norm. Exactly like Tech has 5 4th quarter comebacks with 1 double-digit comeback.

The Mississippi State game is far too much the norm rather than being a one-off that could be excused.

[BCSDAWG]

I’ll give it to Holtz, he does find some quality players to transfer to Ruston. On the flip side he doesn’t do a good enough job of recruiting high school players! The transfer portal really helped this year bringing in talent. But if your head coach’s reputation becomes that he doesn’t know how to win a big game then that portal may not be as beneficial in the future. Players may choose other schools. Our administration has to do a better job of selling Tech to the general public first, then our head coach has to do a better job competing for quality players in their living rooms! And lastly we must beat the P5 teams that we have on the ropes to solidify our reputation as a team the media will talk about!

Recruiting high school players...particularly at the QB spot. It used to be you looked at schools that relied on the junior college pipeline as a little suspect. Now it's "the portal". Tech was never heavy into the junior college pipeline. Now we're getting very heavy into the portal it appears. Holtz is good at managing the portal, but that's not building a strong program in the long run. Holtz can recognize talent that has been developed by other schools/coaching staffs, but he struggles identifying HS talent. Then when they get here he and his staff are weak in developing that raw HS talent. Weak HS recruiting and development (QB spot in particular) and worse than weak leadership and play calling at crunch time. Not a good combination.

[HogDawg]

Recruiting high school players...particularly at the QB spot. It used to be you looked at schools that relied on the junior college pipeline as a little suspect. Now it's "the portal". Tech was never heavy into the junior college pipeline. Now we're getting very heavy into the portal it appears. Holtz is good at managing the portal, but that's not building a strong program in the long run. Holtz can recognize talent that has been developed by other schools/coaching staffs, but he struggles identifying HS talent. Then when they get here he and his staff are weak in developing that raw HS talent. Weak HS recruiting and development (QB spot in particular) and worse than weak leadership and play calling at crunch time. Not a good combination.

I disagree. I have a lot of problems with Skip "the 4th Qtr" Holtz, but how he manages the roster is not one of them.

Holtz only signed 9 HS players in the 2021 recruiting season because he knew he was going heavy on the transfer portal. And thank goodness we did. He ended up signing 19 transfers, but only about 5 (or so) are Graduate Transfers (GT's). The rest of the transfers have multiple years of eligibility remaining. So, in essence, these players are also contributors to our program "in the long run".

BTW, Holtz explained some of this during Tech's "Summer Tour" to Dallas, Houston and Baton Rouge. He said that a proven college player in the transfer portal is exponentially more likely to succeed in FBS football than a high school recruit. He said the transfers have already adjusted to the speed of the game, and are typically bigger and more mature than almost any high school player. And frankly, I think we saw some of that on Saturday in Starkville. Last year's Tech team --without these transfers-- would have been blown out of that stadium by the 2nd quarter. But this 2021 Tech team had just as much speed and size as Mississippi State did.

[Bone_afide_Dawg]

Isn’t it a shame that Holtz doesn’t do as good a job at letting his coaches coach as he does in finding transfer player talent. We’d probably really be something if Holtz’s impact on the games we play was reduced to almost nill. I’d be willing to have a 5th year transfer first game QB call the plays in crunch time over Holtz.

[kfj]

It’s after the holiday weekend and nothing from the Athletics Department or the Administration, so I guess that means Holtz won’t be fired this week.

[Champ967]

It’s after the holiday weekend and nothing from the Athletics Department or the Administration, so I guess that means Holtz won’t be fired this week.

We know what it takes for Tech coaches to be dismissed ...

Either three consecutive non-winning seasons, or bedroom shenanigans.

Avoid those and you can stay in Ruston for as long as it suits you.

[DallasDog]

Isn’t it a shame that Holtz doesn’t do as good a job at letting his coaches coach as he does in finding transfer player talent. We’d probably really be something if Holtz’s impact on the games we play was reduced to almost nill. I’d be willing to have a 5th year transfer first game QB call the plays in crunch time over Holtz.

I am a teacher and I used to coach HS and club sports. I would take $150,000 from skips salary as my own put the rest back into my assistants pay checks, and sit back and let them coach their positions. I am willing to bet in that scenario, I could attract enough good young assistants, or veteran assistants that my record as head coach would be close to Skippy's. I would still make more base than I have ever made in a given year base salary wise, and we wouldn't be any worse off as a program for sure. I can damn well promise you that when I am playing with house money (underdog) against P5's we would be swinging for the fences until the whistle blows at the end of the 4th.

Throttling down to pace ourselves hasn't turned into 1 single conference title so, might as well put the pedal to the floor and worry about rest when the season is over.

[DallasDog]

We know what it takes for Tech coaches to be dismissed ...

Either three consecutive non-winning seasons, or bedroom shenanigans.

Avoid those and you can stay in Ruston for as long as it suits you.

Well his problem wasn't scoring enough or coming out on top when it was over so........ maybe still ahead of Skip.......

[FriscoDawg]

I am a teacher and I used to coach HS and club sports. I would take $150,000 from skips salary as my own put the rest back into my assistants pay checks, and sit back and let them coach their positions. I am willing to bet in that scenario, I could attract enough good young assistants, or veteran assistants that my record as head coach would be close to Skippy's. I would still make more base than I have ever made in a given year base salary wise, and we wouldn't be any worse off as a program for sure. I can damn well promise you that when I am playing with house money (underdog) against P5's we would be swinging for the fences until the whistle blows at the end of the 4th.

Throttling down to pace ourselves hasn't turned into 1 single conference title so, might as well put the pedal to the floor and worry about rest when the season is over.

Willing to bet you would be better than -12 in 4th quarter comeback wins compared to 4th quarter blown lead losses in less than 12 years as an FBS head coach.

[dawg80]

I predicted 7-5 in the poll and might be willing to go 8-4 given the level of talent we have, but here we go again. The very best prospect is a 9-4 finish if we get back to winning bowl games again. Next year...more of the same...the following year, more of the same. Etc...

I could do better. I agree with DallasDog's approach, hire and PAY good assistants and turn them loose to coach the game. I found my most success in my professional life (career) when I hired good people and allowed them to become great thus lifting the organization. I am a believer in "Quality Management," the whole Deming, Juran, etc. approach to quality improvement, you push decision-making down to the lowest possible position and give them ownership of their portion of the process. On a football team that means assistant coaches and captains on the field.

[DallasDog]

I think at this point he has to realize that his style lends itself to slightly better than average to average and that it will never lead him to a high profile P5 job. That ship has not only sailed, it hit the reef pulling out of harbor and sank. So quit freaking micro managing and playing to not lose/keep it close. Take that $800k+ salary over the next 4 years (I just threw up a little typing that) and become known as the coach who developed awesome coaches and playing talent that went on to amazing heights.

P.S. Skip just in case you have someone reading this for you. Not only be known for developing and paying those amazing assistants, how bout throwing in that gunslinger mentality that TECH has been known for for the last 30 years or more. Anybody, anywhere, at anytime..... instead of at your place, when we are going to try and keep it close, and F' it up at the last minute every time style you seem to have perfected.