NCAA Predictions

[inudesu]

I've made some changes to my previous post. D1 Baseball now believes Dallas Baptist and Liberty are on the bubble given their tournament performances. Although, I find it hard to believe Dallas Baptist isn't squarely in the field with an RPI of 22 and a Q1 record of 13-9.

Liberty is the more interesting case. Their loss the Kennesaw State exposed the fact their Q1 record is just 7-11.

D1 also has Alabama and Ole Miss as part of their First Four Out. I've included them on the Bubble here, but I think they are likely gone.

DBU SID was nervous about their spot this morning at church. They were pulling for us.

[FriscoDawg]

Here are all of the teams above West Virginia at RPI 49 that aren't hosting and do not have an automatic bid. There are 26 teams on this list, and at least 5 of them can't make the field with only 21 spots left.

Wake Forest 6
Vanderbilt 7
Notre Dame 13
Georgia 20
Georgia Tech 21
Dallas Baptist 23
Virginia 24
LSU 25
Texas State 26
Gonzaga 27
Oregon 28
Florida State 29
Coastal Carolina 30
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Liberty 31
North Carolina State 32
Clemson 34
Wofford 35
TCU 36
UTSA 37
Arizona 38
Mississippi 39
Old Dominion 40
Arkansas 41
Rutgers 42
Texas Tech 45
UCLA 48

Assuming all teams down to Coastal Carolina at 30 are locks to get bids except Dallas Baptist, four teams of the 13 below the line won't make it. I'd be worried for Liberty, Wofford, Ole Miss, and Rutgers on that list. ODU would be next if any of those five get in.

[tigtoo30]

Just happy we don’t have to worry about tomorrow. We will be close to home and that’s all that matters.

[PawDawg]

Here are all of the teams above West Virginia at RPI 49 that aren't hosting and do not have an automatic bid. There are 26 teams on this list, and at least 5 of them can't make the field with only 21 spots left.

Wake Forest 6
Vanderbilt 7
Notre Dame 13
Georgia 20
Georgia Tech 21
Dallas Baptist 23
Virginia 24
LSU 25
Texas State 26
Gonzaga 27
Oregon 28
Florida State 29
Coastal Carolina 30
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Liberty 31
North Carolina State 32
Clemson 34
Wofford 35
TCU 36
UTSA 37
Arizona 38
Mississippi 39
Old Dominion 40
Arkansas 41
Rutgers 42
Texas Tech 45
UCLA 48

Assuming all teams down to Coastal Carolina at 30 are locks to get bids except Dallas Baptist, four teams of the 13 below the line won't make it. I'd be worried for Liberty, Wofford, Ole Miss, and Rutgers on that list. ODU would be next if any of those five get in.

Wow! Some really good teams will be left at home due to the steals that occurred this weekend. Glad we are not one of them.

[The Historian]

The Bubble this AM. Some changes from yesterday given the stolen bids involved.

Some teams who thought they were squarely in the field a week ago may be upset later this morning.

• Louisiana Tech comes off the bubble after winning the CUSA tournament.

• Old Dominion is now projected as one of D1 Baseball's Last Four Out. The Monarch's RPI sits at 40 but with a non-conference SOS of 189. ODU finished with an 8-7 record against the Q1.

• UTSA is now projected as one of D1's Last Four in. The Road Runners sit at 37 in the RPI with a 9-10 record against the Q1, but with a non-conference SOS of 177. UTSA got to the CUSA final by beating national host USM twice in two days. The are projected as the No. 63 team in D1's projection.

• Coastal Carolina enters the bubble after the Cajuns stole a bid in the Sun Belt final. D1 now has them as one of their Last Four In. CCU lost to Troy in the Belt tournament. But their RPI dropped to just 30. They also have a winning Q1 record at 8-7. Does the Committee put 4 Sun Belt teams in the field given yesterday's stolen bids?

• GCU is on the bubble after losing back to back games to Abilene Christian and seeing its RPI drop to 50. Does the Committee award an at large to a school outside the Q1 from a conference, the WAC, with the 19th rated RPI? GCU has a winning 7-5 record against the Q1, and their non-conference SOS is 9, both of which bolster their case. The stolen bids will hurt GCU's chances, and D1 Baseball now has them as one of their First Four Out.

• Wofford loses back to back games to UNCG in the Southern Conference tournament and was run ruled in the final, 12-2, but their RPI dropped just 3 spots to 35 with a record of 42-16-1. Their Q1 record is 3-4. D1 Baseball has them in their First Four Out. The Southern Conference is the 11th rated RPI conference.

• Rutgers remains on the bubble after losing to Michigan in the Big 10 final. D1 Baseball has Rutgers in their Last Four In, but the Scarlet Knights have just 1 Q1 win all year long and a Q1 record of just 1-3. Their non-conference SOS was a whopping 238.

• West Virginia's is on the bubble after a loss to Kansas State and an RPI drop 15 spots to 50. The loss exposed their Q1 record of 6-11. I'm leaving them on the bubble, but D1 no longer has them in their Last Four Out projection.

• D1 Baseball now has Dallas Baptist as one of their First Four Out, given the Missouri Valley tournament performance and Dallas Baptist's regular season conference performance (losing more series than they won) and their 2 poor performances in the MVC tournament.

• Liberty is on the bubble given their tournament performance and losing Q1 record of 7-11. D1 Baseball is projecting them as the last team in the field. The 7 wins in the Q1 may just get them in.

• I've left Alabama, Kentucky and Ole Miss on the bubble, but D1 no longer has them in their Last Four Out picture given yesterday's stolen bids.

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The Bubble

• Rutgers 42 RPI, 44-15, 19-7 (T2nd) (losing record against Q1. Still just 1-3. Non-Conference SOS of 238)
• Wofford 35 RPI, 42-16-1 (just 3-4 against Q1; Non Con SOS of 90)
• Coastal Carolina, 30 RPI, 36-18-1 (8-7 Q1 record. Lost to Troy in the Sun Belt quarters).
• Old Dominion 40 RPI, 41-18, 22-12 (T3rd) – 1-0 in CUSA Tournament (winning record against Q1)
• UTSA 37 RPI, 38-20, 21-11 (T3rd) – beat FAU to open tourney (even record against Q1; but beat USM 2 of 3 on road and swept USM in the CUSA tourney to reach the championship game. RPI now at 35).
• Kentucky 52 RPI (on the bubble after losing to Tennessee 12-2. But losing Q1 record and conference record of 12-18)
• West Virginia 49 RPI (lost to Kansas State and its RPI dropped 14 spots to 49. Record against Q1 is just 6-11).
• Grand Canyon 50 RPI (lost back to back games to Abilene Christian; RPI droped to 51. Does the committee award an at large to a school outside the Q1 from the 19th ranked conference).
• Dallas Baptist 23 RPI, 34-22 (13-9 Q1 record. On D1's bubble after losing to Evansville and SIU in the Missouri Valley Tournament and having lost 4 of 7 conference series during the regular season)
• Liberty 31 RPI, 37-21 (7-11 Q1 Record. Lost to Kennesaw State in the ASUN Championship game).
• Alabama 51 RPI, 31-27 (losing Q1 Record and a 12-18 conference record)
• Ole Miss 39 RPI, 32-22 (8-13 losing Q1 Record)

[The Historian]

Here is D1 Baseball's final projection:

https://d1baseball.com/postseason/20...final-edition/


They have Rutgers in their last 4 teams in the field with Wofford and Grand Canyon out of the field. In looking at their resumes one thing really stands out. Rutgers' Non-Conference SOS is 238. Grand Canyon's is 9. Wofford's is 90.

Grand Canyon is hurt by the WAC's conference RPI rank of 19, but GCU dominated the league at 25-5. And they knew the WAC was weak so they went out and scheduled a brutal non-conference slate. Will the Committee recognize that?

Will Rutgers pay for the fact the Big 10 is incredibly weak, and the one thing the Scarlet Knights could control - their Non Con SOS - they chose the easy road.

[Dawgonit]

I like the prediction of College Station. I think it would be the best location possible for us to have a good Tech crowd.

[dawg80]

I like the prediction of College Station. I think it would be the best location possible for us to have a good Tech crowd.

What's the Super Regional matchup for the College Station regional? Might as well be optimistic and think ahead! (taking a page from Champ110's playbook)

[PawDawg]

I like the prediction of College Station. I think it would be the best location possible for us to have a good Tech crowd.

250 miles to College Station (about the same as Hattiesburg)

330 miles to Austin

340 miles to Stillwater

450 miles to Auburn

I vote College Station

[LeggoDawgs]

As someone living in Oklahoma I’m selfishly hoping for Stillwater. But Austin would also work

[LATECH87]

Looks like we are going to Texas A&M. They definitely aren't sending us to Hattiesburg. Maybe Austin but really I think it's going to be A&M.

[Tech77]

Had we lost to ODU Saturday evening I think it’s pretty clear we would be feeling terrible after the selections are announced. Too many stolen bids. Lots of very good teams will be left at home. .

[FriscoDawg]

Austin as a #2 seed.

[Gladzilla]

Austin as a #2 seed.

DBU! Bring up the game film and get revenge!

[FriscoDawg]

We are Coastal Carolina fans. That's the path to a Ruston Super Regional.

And if ODU isn't in (very doubtful at this point), happy that Liberty is in. That one will stick in ODU's craw for a while.

And of the teams joining C-USA for baseball, Dallas Baptist, Liberty, and New Mexico State are in the field.