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Thread: NCAA Predictions

  1. #136
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    Re: NCAA Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by LATECH87 View Post
    Man that's tough for UTSA and ODU. I really think they would have done well.
    Bad deal for UTSA I suppose. Example of what bad early scheduling can do to you late.

    Chickens came home to roost for the cheaters at ODU. They'll fit in well in the Scumbelt.

    Glad we could be of help to them.
    HCSH cumulative point differential by quarter:

    231 522 654 -54

  2. #137
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    Re: NCAA Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by FriscoDawg View Post
    OOC schedule matters. UTSA's was 177, and ODU's was 189.

    UTSA first 12 games were against Tarleton State (3), Seattle (4), Stanford (UTSA won 6-5), Southern (3), and Incarnate Word. Even with the Stanford win, there was absolutely no meat on the bone in the other 11 games with 260 (3), 232 (4), 237 (3), and 183. UTSA went to Oklahoma and got swept in the last OOC weekend, but impossible to overcome that early schedule.

    ODU started with Iona (3), Binghamton (3), at VCU (ODU win), Bryant (3), Princeton (2), and Stony Brook (3). That's 14 brutally bad RPI games out of the first 15 with 290 (3), 215 (3), 103 (3), 286 (2), and 186 (3). Hard to get anywhere without a solid top 100 RPI weekend OOC series.
    To add to this: UTSA came in 5th in the conference with a losing Q1 record. ODU was third in CUSA. ODU had an opportunity in May with mid week games against VCU and William & Mary. And lost both of them.

    With the bubble growing, UTSA went forward with their watch party. Kiss of death.
    Last edited by The Historian; 05-30-2022 at 02:49 PM.

  3. #138
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    Re: NCAA Predictions

    • I thought Dallas Baptist would make it. Their entire body of work was impossible to ignore. Their Non Con SOS was 2. They were 13-9 against the Q1 with an RPI of 22. But D1 Baseball led the charge to exclude them.
    • I also thought Grand Canyon would make it. Their non-conference SOS was 9. They did what the Committee wants schools outside the Power conferences to do when you know your conference is going to be weak. They were 6-3 against the Q1.
    • I thought Liberty had a good shot. They had a non con SOS of 13 and RPI of 31.
    • I thought Rutgers would get left out for the reasons I stated this morning, even though D1 Baseball had them in the field. The non con SOS was 238. They have all the money in the world to schedule up but they refused.
    • Wofford could have gone one way or another. Their Non Con SOS was 90, but they won just 3 Q1 games.

    But....
    • I had no idea NC State was even on the bubble. Neither did D1 Baseball or Baseball America. But it does sort of make sense. They won just 4 ACC series out of 10.
    • I included Ole Miss on the bubble, but I thought they were gone, along with Bama, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Like NC State, Ole Miss won just 4 conference series but were still included in the field. I guess their plans to fire Mike Bianco are going to have to be put on hold.



  4. #139
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    Re: NCAA Predictions

    As I posted above, NC State's OOC SOS was 181. Ole Miss' OOC SOS was 94. NC State may have been the first out overall, but no way they were getting in over Ole Miss.

    Tech would have taken the Ole Miss spot with a loss yesterday. 118 OOC SOS with 10-6 Q1 record and two wins over LSU was enough to lock up a bid Saturday night.

    Tech's win Saturday night and the bubble chaos knocked ODU out. The only way UTSA or ODU were getting in with all of the bubble chaos was to win the tournament.

  5. #140
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    Re: NCAA Predictions

    So, four from the Belt got in and only two from CUSA. The Belt is getting two good baseball programs too.

  6. #141
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    Re: NCAA Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by dawg80 View Post
    So, four from the Belt got in and only two from CUSA. The Belt is getting two good baseball programs too.
    And C-USA will be getting three other teams that are in this year's field for 2023 (Dallas Baptist) and 2024 (Liberty and NMSU).

  7. #142
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    Re: NCAA Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by The Historian View Post
    One thing is for certain. If any school on the bubble goes 0-2 their chances of making the field are almost none.

    The Committee has made that clear in the past.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bone_afide_Dawg View Post
    Except probably an ACC or SEC school. Those rigid standards donít necessarily apply to them

    QUOTE=Dwayne From Minden;1833115]Yes they do - if they are a bubble team and go "2 and que" they are left out -

    Unlike the basketball at-large selections, baseball is usually pretty open and predictable
    QUOTE=The Historian;1833116]It does apply to them.

    For schools truly on the bubble - RPIs in the mid 30s through the mid 50s - going 0-2 gets you left home.

    No matter who you are.[/QUOTE]

    And like I said, ď... You canít seriously believe that when it comes to a coin toss type moment that the bigger conferences and more recognizable school donít get a special wink and nod.Ē

    Favoritism is always in play. People can try to bury it and defend it in all kinds of statistical smoke and mirrors ways, but when it comes to nut cutting time playing favorites tops all else.

    UTSA RPI 38 Record of 38-20/ finished the year 5-2 / Lost the conference championship game / beat Southern Miss twice at Southern Miss in their tournament with SM still hosting an NCAA regional. UTSA not playing any more is a giant cheat and pure favoritism to the SEC.

    Old Dominion RPI 40 Record of 41-17 / finished the year 10-2 with their only 2 losses being to LA Tech. OD could easily beat all the Sunbelt teams making the NCAAs. More big conference favoritism.

    Arkansas RPI 41 Record of 38-18 / lost 4 straight to end the year / finished the year 2-6. Not deserving over UTSA or OD. SEC favoritism!

    Ole Miss RPI 38 Record of 32-22 / Had a losing record in conference / no wins in conference tournament / finished the year 1-3. Not deserving over UTSA or OD. SEC favoritism!

    Tex Tech RPI 45 Record of 37-20 / 1 win in conference tournament finished the year 5-4. Not deserving over UTSA or OD. Big 12 favoritism!

    Grand Canyon RPI 54 Record of 40-20 / went 2-2 in tournament. Not deserving over UTSA or OD. RPI wise I have no clue why this team is still playing.

    UCLA RPI 44 Record of 38-22 / they got lucky to win 3 in conference tournament. Still not deserving over UTSA. PAC 12 favoritism!

    You guys believing in and defending ĎThe Systemí were duped by it. Thankfully our players didnít trust the always and forever corrupt Buddy System that probably wouldíve cost us a bid if we hadnít won it all.

  8. #143
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    Re: NCAA Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Bone_afide_Dawg View Post
    You guys believing in and defending ‘The System’ were duped by it. Thankfully our players didn’t trust the always and forever corrupt Buddy System that probably would’ve cost us a bid if we hadn’t won it all.
    One win was not the difference between a 2 seed and sitting at home. Two wins, maybe. But not one win.

    Spare a thought for NC State. They got screwed in Omaha last year and got screwed again this weekend by the committee. No way that either ODU and UTSA deserved to be in the field before NC State did when the Wolfpack had a higher RPI but a similar OOC SOS at 181. And just when you thought the day couldn't get any worse in Raleigh, Carolina is down 3-0 in game 7 to the Rangers after 2, and the Hurricanes' starting goalie had to leave the game hurt.

    Grand Canyon got in with an OOC SOS of 10 and a 7-5 Q1 record that was all OOC (2-1 vs Arizona, 1-2 vs San Diego, 1-1 at Oregon State, 2-0 vs Texas Tech, 1-1 vs Stanford). They did what the committee wants contending teams that play in weak conferences to do--schedule tough OOC. And they hung up at least one win on all of those top 50 RPI teams.

    I never had a question that Arkansas, Texas Tech, and UCLA were in. Those were givens just like NC State probably should have been.

    Ole Miss is the one I question most, but I have no doubt that Tech would have gotten that bid if it had lost yesterday.
    Last edited by FriscoDawg; 05-30-2022 at 09:01 PM.

  9. #144
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    Re: NCAA Predictions

    Part of the problem is that a few 2 and many 3 seeds get left out because so many 4 seeds are automatic. Nothing can change that.
    HCSH cumulative point differential by quarter:

    231 522 654 -54

  10. #145
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    Re: NCAA Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by PawDawg View Post
    Part of the problem is that a few 2 and many 3 seeds get left out because so many 4 seeds are automatic. Nothing can change that.
    Exactly why I listed a group of conferences that needed to be watched, and several of those turned into bid steals that almost obliterated the bubble.

  11. #146
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    Re: NCAA Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by FriscoDawg View Post
    Exactly why I listed a group of conferences that needed to be watched, and several of those turned into bid steals that almost obliterated the bubble.
    You and Historian did a good job of keeping us up to date on the possibilities. Not many surprises outside of your predictions.
    HCSH cumulative point differential by quarter:

    231 522 654 -54

  12. #147
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    Re: NCAA Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Bone_afide_Dawg View Post
    QUOTE=The Historian;1833116]It does apply to them.

    For schools truly on the bubble - RPIs in the mid 30s through the mid 50s - going 0-2 gets you left home.

    No matter who you are. You guys believing in and defending ‘The System’ were duped by it.
    The answers to your questions as to why ODU and UTSA were left at home are in the previous dozen posts or so. Look at the non-conference schedule for each.

    And Ole Miss made the field. But NC State, Clemson, Alabama, Kentucky, Rutgers, and West Virginia all stayed home.

    While Liberty, Grand Canyon, and Coastal Carolina made the tournament.

  13. #148
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    Re: NCAA Predictions

    There is no GOOD excuse for UTSA, and ODU as well, to have been left out. Just lame excuses to try to justify a selection committee with their heads up their asses. UCLA has an RPI of 48, UTSA is 37. The algorithms are supposed to account for such things as SOS, etc...Okay fine, so UCLA and some others played "tougher" OOCs well then their RPIs should have been better, lower. But the committee, by its own admission, leaned on RPI when it suited them and completely ignored it when it didn't.

  14. #149
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    Re: NCAA Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by The Historian View Post
    The answers to your questions as to why ODU and UTSA were left at home are in the previous dozen posts or so. Look at the non-conference schedule for each.

    And Ole Miss made the field. But NC State, Clemson, Alabama, Kentucky, Rutgers, and West Virginia all stayed home.

    While Liberty, Grand Canyon, and Coastal Carolina made the tournament.
    Arkansas being in the NCAAs is pure SEC favoritism and Ole Miss is a coin flip stretch of the same thing. The experts here said themselves that losing 2 would bump a team from an at large invitation and yet for Arkansas it didnít.

  15. #150
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    Re: NCAA Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by dawg80 View Post
    There is no GOOD excuse for UTSA, and ODU as well, to have been left out. Just lame excuses to try to justify a selection committee with their heads up their asses. UCLA has an RPI of 48, UTSA is 37. The algorithms are supposed to account for such things as SOS, etc...Okay fine, so UCLA and some others played "tougher" OOCs well then their RPIs should have been better, lower. But the committee, by its own admission, leaned on RPI when it suited them and completely ignored it when it didn't.
    This is exactly right, and will never change.

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