You think that would be worse than what we have now? Or than what we have now minus some other current CUSA members bailing out and us having to replace them (with more FCS teams)?Originally Posted by revf
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You think that would be worse than what we have now? Or than what we have now minus some other current CUSA members bailing out and us having to replace them (with more FCS teams)?
Yeah might as well wait this time, the cost is the same ($34 million). They made a $17 million mistake last month begging the MWC to take them back. At the time I kind of hoped the MWC would say no, but they played it brilliantly, now they get the full $34 million. I ultimately think the PAC 12 takes four schools to replace Colorado and probably Arizona; San Diego State should make that group.
The answer would be no. I hope our AD is spending his time and our resources in a more productive manner. He should be feeling out other conference commissioners and AD’s. Explaining our strengths, such as they are. Hopefully Guise is aware of what is happening and he is talking to other Presidents, also selling Tech and Ruston best he can. Guide’s association with Tech is over 50 plus years, he has to be passionate when speaking about Tech. That must be shown to other Presidents in the conferences we hope to gain acceptance within.
Good post.
It really depends on how much chaos occurs.
In the end, the one thing I think happens is CUSA adding Belt schools, as CUSA will likely have some openings.
The SBC East schools want to jettison the Cajuns, ULM, Arkansas State and Texas State. The four SBC schools west of the Mississippi River.
If CUSA has a good year from a TV standpoint, the cash value of its TV deals with CBS/ESPN will exceed the cash value of the Belt's TV contract with ESPN starting in August, 2024 when the one-year look-in occurs on CUSA's deal.
It would be easy to line up the deals and move schools for 2025.
Well I lobbied USM’s president Thursday night for Tech to come to the Belt. He commented on Tech pissing Sunbelt members off in the past. I know the folks on here act like we had support from the ULMs and ULLs of the world but clearly our past PR snafus have affected our current position.
no. What I was saying is that I think the crumbs of FBS end up in regional conferences…
I think the remnants of the Sunbelt and CUSA swap like the historian mentioned.
we will be unfortunately ultimately back in a conference very similar to the old days….
our budget is closer to ULMs than UNTs. Like I said earlier in the thread. We have failed to capitalize on a very successful WAC and somewhat successful CUSA, so every single school not named Tech passed us by. Hell, UAB didn’t have football for 3 years and passed us by. So I want someone to please keep telling me that Guice “gets it”.
Great post. Not great news, but very informative. I miss these kind of posts with true, inside information. Those types of posts used to be more common. I think the a lot of us always felt that was the case regarding the SBC. Thanks for sharing and continue your lobbying.
Where did you read about the eastern schools wanting to get rid of the western schools? It’s not a bad idea, but I have never heard or read where anyone said that. The western schools probably don’t want to leave for less money and join a much less prestigious conference.
How good of a year do does CUSA need to double the money to make it equal to the SBC (I think their payout is double ours)? Also, if viewership is worse than expected can our payout be lowered?
It's an open secret.
ODU's president has been talking about it since the day they became a CUSA member - someday creating an eastern conference with James Madison as a member.
When it didn't happen in CUSA they then recruited Marshall to make the move to the Belt.
Southern Miss' beat writer for the Hattiesburg paper wrote about it in one form or another for a long time. The 2 leagues merging and then splitting by georgraphy. When USM, ODU, and Marshall left for the Belt the issue basically became dead for CUSA. It then became the Belt's issue.
Then, that idea seeped out into social media in the past 3 or 4 months with fanbases echoing what their administrations are saying in private.
They essentially have their eastern conference with the SBC. They are in a 7 team division with most of the schools they aspire to associate with like JMU, Marshall, and App State. There are no remaining C-USA schools in the east that they’d care to associate with.
Here is some background:
The cash portions of the 2 deals are relatively close.
This came up recently for ULM's AD. He talked about it on the morning drive show in Ruston a few weeks ago. ULM's budget of $18.5 million is a full $10 million behind USM's $28.5 million budget, the next lowest in the Sun Belt.
When asked about the impact of the Belt's new TV deal on their budget he told a group of boosters that the cash portion was $1 million.
Another million is non-cash, like the value ESPN puts on access to the ESPN+ platform or the value they give to the conference for having championship games on ESPN, ESPN2, or ABC. Or the value given to any equipment ESPN might provide to maintain the quality standards they want to see on ESPN+. Some of the Belt schools include this value in their budgets.
It's similar to the apparel deals many of the Belt schools or CUSA schools have with Adidas. Most of it isn't in cash, it's almost all in apparel. But the full dollar value is included in everybody's budget.
What ULM's AD told his boosters is also what Dr. Wood said in his talks at the Tech tour stops over the summer regarding all these deals. He used the exact same numbers regarding CUSA and the Sun Belt.
CUSA's new deal with CBS/ESPN of $750,000 in cash per school, per year. There is a look-in at the end of the 2023-24 year that could increase the deal. CUSA's deal is just behind the cash portion of the MAC's deal with ESPN (some games subleased to CBS) at $833,000 per school, per year in cash and the Belt's deal with ESPN, which is $1,015,000 in cash per school, per year. The Belt's next look-in with ESPN is at the end of the 2026-27 school year.
The AAC's new deal with ESPN is for $6,940,000 in cash per school, per year. The 6 new additions to the league will take reduced amount of $4,627,000 per school, per year for 3 years. They will each receive a full share beginning with the 2026-27 academic year. It was believed in 2021 the AAC's deal would be cut with each of the 6 new additions taking less money permanently. But AAC commish Mike Aresco was able to convince ESPN to maintain the full deal, partially because there are outs for the AAC in the deal if it was cut by ESPN. He talked about this extensively in an interview several months ago on SiriusXM.
So....
AAC = $6,940,000 in cash (6 new schools get $4,627,000 per year for 3 years and get the full amount in 26-27)
Sun Belt = $1,015,000 in cash (next look-in with ESPN in 26-27)
MAC = $833,000 in cash (ESPN deal with some games sub-leased to CBS Sports Network)
CUSA = $750,000 in cash (CBS/ESPN deal with look-in at the end of the 2023-24 year)
You will see in my original post (#19) that I didn't say anything about a swap where some CUSA east schools would move to the Belt. I said that the schools in the SBC east want to jettison the 4 SBC schools west of the Mississippi River to CUSA.
If realignment gets chaotic enough in the next few months and CUSA and the Mountain West were looking for members (and the MWC could easily be needing an eastern side), you will find that the SBC east schools will not only let those 4 schools leave for nothing (Cajuns, Warhawks, Red Wolves, and Bobcats), they'll even provide incentives!
Dr. Wood's comments about this at the Tech tour stops were all about the look-in increasing the money.
I don't think the deal would be cut unless the conference loses 4 or 5 schools in realignment.
The one thing I couldn't find - out of anybody - was the exact breakdown of CUSA's deal. I believe the vast majority of the cash is from CBS. So if things go well - and ESPN came up with some cash - that would push the deal up. If things have gone well enough to where ESPN provided some cash, then I suspect CBS would move their money up, as well.
Could it top the Belt's cash portion for a 3-year stretch? Possible.
Ah ok. I still don’t think that’s a likely scenario - at all. First of all, I don’t buy your premise that the eastern schools are looking to kick out the western schools. Second, even if they did, the other western schools would strongly oppose it. Third, the western schools would have zero interest in C-USA, and very little interest in the MW. The downsides of the MW outweigh the upsides.
I know you might find this hard to believe, but at this point it would be very difficult for any G5 conference, even the AAC, to poach SBC teams. The SBC is expected to be the most stable G5 conference moving forward (ignoring the MAC.) It is filled with schools who want to be here, in a really good geographic footprint, and is firmly in the conversation for best G5 conference (which gives us access to the expanded CFP.)
It was a PR mistake for sure. But I think cooler heads would agree that LaTech adds value to the Sunbelt. AAC would do more for our academic reputation but I don't see much difference in the level of football competition. We could stay put. It's not like there's a huge difference (Liberty has a better overall athletic department than anybody in the Sunbelt or the AAC.)
Have you considered those Dogs?
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