C-USA braces for exit of Louisville, Cincinnati
Commentary by TIM STEPHENS
BIRMINGHAM POST-HERALD
The trickle-down effects of the Atlantic Coast Conference expansion soon could be felt in Conference USA.
Sources close to the situation say the Big East Conference will replace ACC defectors Miami and Virginia Tech with two schools from C-USA. Louisville and Cincinnati likely will be extended invitations to join the Big East within the next three weeks, although their departure from C-USA might not happen until after the 2005-06 academic year. Big East presidents will meet early next month to formulate their plans, according to published reports.
By then, things will have been set into motion for a quick resolution, and by the end of August, teams across the nation probably will know where they are headed just in time for the next round of television contract negotiations.
Things certainly still could change, and there could be multiple teams moving to new conferences or only a few. This much seems certain, though: Louisville and Cincinnati will depart C-USA to join Big East.
But does the Big East stop there? Will it ravage C-USA like the ACC tried to do to the Big East? Will other leagues such as the Western Athletic Conference try to cherry-pick a few nervous C-USA teams after the Big East is finished?
East Carolina, Memphis and South Florida all have been mentioned as possibile additions to the Big East. Ditto for non-football playing C-USA schools Marquette and DePaul. Texas Christian, Houston, Tulane and Southern Miss have been mentioned as possible additions to the WAC in the worst C-USA doomsday scenarios.
So what is going to happen?
The feeling at the moment seems to be that the Big East will not expand be*yond eight football schools. Louisville and Cincinnati would be added to a Big East lineup that includes Boston College, Syracuse, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Connecticut and Rutgers.
The Big East schools have discussed the prospect of splitting into two confer*ences — those schools that play I-A foot*ball and those that do not such as Georgetown, St. John's and Providence. C-USA teams Marquette and DePaul, according to the sources, likely will be invited to join the Big East hoops schools. Whether those schools operate under the umbrella of the Big East or the football schools split to form a new conference could determine whether other C-USA teams become targets. The logistics are difficult on both sides with television dollars and NCAA Tourna*ment money at stake. The swing vote might be Notre Dame, a member of the Big East in all sports except football.
Unquestionably, the futures of the Big East and C-USA are linked. But does one have to die for the other to live?
The loss of four prominent basketball schools certainly would hurt the league, but C-USA likely will be able to replace Louisville and Cincinnati more than ade*quately on the football end of things. And the Big East, if it does add more than two teams, could move in the direction of Eastern football-only options Navy, Central Florida or Army (which already has announced it will leave C-USA as a football-only member).
Some fans and media outlets have tossed around the notion of a complete merger between C-USA and the Big East, but sources said such an idea has not received serious consideration. Instead, it will be likely that both the Big East and C-USA will attempt to become more regional in nature.
In C-USA's case, the league is likely to turn South and Southwest. The league would need to add four teams in order to split into divisions and have a champi*onship game.
Possible targets for C-USA include Western Athletic Conference members Southern Methodist, Tulsa, Rice and Mid-America Conference member Mar*shall.
A football lineup of Southern Miss, South Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Memphis, UAB, Texas Christian, SMU, Rice, Tulsa, Tulane and Houston wouldn't be a world-beater by any means, but it would be pretty solid. The league would strengthen itself in Texas television markets and probably could retain 4-5 bowl slots.
The new C-USA's regional approach would help build rivalries, promote bet*ter attendance and reduce costs for Olympic sports.
The league would take a big hit in basketball, with Memphis, UAB and Tulsa being the most consistent programs. On the other hand, there were years in which the old C-USA landed only 2-3 teams in the NCAA Tourna*ment. Once Memphis fans get over the initial disappointment of being left out of the Big East, they'll see the chance to regularly dominate C-USA and be in the NCAA Tournament almost every year.
The big question affecting C-USA, re*gardless of its lineup, will be the issue of inclusion in the Bowl Championship Se*ries. The proposed new lineup doesn't look like a BCS league, but then again, neither does the new-look Big East.
And, in fact, the BCS as we currently know it might not exist by the time the conference shakedowns are completed. There is mounting criticism of the BCS system and the financial differences be*tween those conferences that enjoy auto*matic BCS inclusion vs. those that do not. Tulane President Scott Cowen is leading a movement of the non-BCS schools to bring attention to the ineq*uities. Meanwhile, members of Congress are making rumbling about investigat*ing the BCS agreement for potential anti-trust law violations.
The new Big East presents a problem for the five other members of the BCS cartel. If they keep the watered-down Big East as an automatic member while excluding comparable leagues in terms of level of competition, they'll hear cries of anger — and possible lawsuits — from the non-BCS schools. And if the cartel excludes the new Big East, some prominent lawmakers are going to no*tice and make noise and problems for the Greedy Five.
Given that climate, the BCS schools probably will make some concessions on access to the non-BCS schools in the next contract.
In the meantime, it seems even like*lier that Big East will take over a piece of Conference USA's turf, but not so much that the league won't survive.
Tim Stephens is Sports Editor of the Birmingham Post-Herald.
http://www.postherald.com/sp071903.shtml
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