Final RPIs and projected bracket are posted

[FriscoDawg]

Here are the final RPIs for teams in contention to make the NCAA field. http://www.collegerpi.com/women/04/rpi.html

CollegeRPI.com’s bracket projection is also here http://www.collegerpi.com/women/04/ncaaguess.html
A corrected version was posted at 11:39 am Sunday.

The posted bracket has Tech as a Mideast 7 seed playing at 10 seed Montana (host site) in the first round. Houston is the 2 seed in that projected bracket with Tennessee as the #1, LSU as the #3, and Boston College as the #4. Rice is in the bracket as an 11 seed going to LSU, and Rice is not listed as one of the last 4 in.

All 28 teams I listed as probable at-large selections below are in the CollegeRPI.com projected bracket. The other 5 teams picked from the last group for that bracket are Iowa, Richmond, Missouri, Rice, and Arizona State.

17 automatic qualifiers have RPIs outside the Top 50.

AUTOMATIC BIDS (31)
2--Duke (ACC)
4--Purdue (Big Ten)
7--Houston (C-USA)
10--Vanderbilt (SEC)
11--Oklahoma (Big 12)
16--Stanford (Pac 10)
17--Boston College (Big East)
18--Old Dominion (Colonial)
24--Louisiana Tech (WAC)
35--Chattanooga (Southern)
36--Montana (Big Sky)
41--SMS (Missouri Valley)
46--Temple (Atlantic 10)
48--Loyola Marymount (West Coast)
55--UC Santa Barbara (Big West)
56--Maine (America East)
60--Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt)
65--Liberty (Big South)
66--Eastern Michigan (MAC)
72--New Mexico (MWC)
75--Austin Peay (Ohio Valley)
79--St. Francis (PA) (Northeast)
82--Wisconsin-Green Bay (Horizon)
93--Marist (Metro Atlantic)
100--Northwestern State (Southland)
105--Valparaiso (Mid-Continent)
115--Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun)
118--Penn (Ivy League)
134--Hampton (MEAC)
149--Colgate (Patriot)
161--Southern (SWAC)

Probable at-large bids with RPIs of 39 or better (28 of the 33 available at-large bids)
1--Tennessee
3--Penn State
5--Texas
6--Connecticut
8--Kansas State
9--LSU
12--Texas Tech
13--Florida
14--TCU
15--Georgia
19--Colorado
20--Michigan State
21--North Carolina
22--Rutgers
23--Baylor
25--Villanova
26--Auburn
27--Miami (FL)
28--Virginia Tech
29--DePaul
30--Notre Dame
31--Minnesota
32--Ohio State
33--Arizona
34--George Washington
37--Marquette
38--Utah
39--Louisville

The next 17 RPI teams with at least .500 records (5 bids available if all 28 probables make the field)
40--Iowa (16-12 overall, 10-6 Big Ten, lost in Big Ten quarterfinals to Michigan State)
42--Arkansas (16-12 overall, 5-9 SEC, lost in SEC first round)
43--Memphis (20-9 overall, 9-5 C-USA, won C-USA first round before losing in quarterfinals to Louisville)
44--Richmond (20-9 overall, 11-5 A-10, lost to Temple in A-10 semifinals)
45--Missouri (17-12 overall, 7-9 Big 12, won Big 12 first round before losing in quarterfinals to Kansas State)
47--Maryland (17-12 overall, 8-8 in ACC, won ACC quarterfinal game before losing to Duke in the semifinals)
49--North Carolina State (16-14 overall, 8-8 in ACC, won ACC quarterfinal game before losing to North Carolina in the semifinals)
50--Mississippi (17-13 overall, 7-7 SEC, won SEC first round game before losing to LSU in the quarterfinals)
51--UCLA (17-12 overall, 11-7 Pac 10, won Pac 10 quarterfinal game before losing to Stanford in semifinals)
52--Rice (21-9, 16-2 WAC, won two rounds in WAC Tournament, lost in WAC finals to Louisiana Tech)
53--Washington (17-12 overall, 9-9 Pac 10, won Pac 10 quarterfinal game before losing to Arizona in the semifinals)
54--Arizona State (17-11 overall, 11-7 Pac 10, lost in Pac 10 quarterfinals to UCLA, first/second round host)
57--West Virginia (21-10 overall, 10-6 Big East, won two rounds in Big East Tournament before losing to Rutgers in the semifinals)
58--Nebraska (17-11 overall, 7-9 Big 12, lost in Big 12 first round to Iowa State)
61--Clemson (17-10 overall, 7-9 ACC, lost in ACC quarterfinals to North Carolina State)
62--Southern Cal (15-13 overall, 11-7 Pac 10, lost in Pac 10 quarterfinals to Washington)
63--Florida State (14-14 overall, 7-9 ACC, lost in ACC quarterfinals to Maryland, first/second round host)

[dawg80]

So, at worst, Tech would be 9th among the 31 automatics in RPI.

[FriscoDawg]

Southern beat MVSU 68-61 to win the SWAC automatic bid and a certain 16 seed.

Major trouble for Rice--New Mexico has blown out Utah in the MWC final in Denver. Utah's RPI will drop from a projected 33 to around 38 with that loss, but will that be enought for the commitee leave the Utes out? If Utah is in, Rice's slim chance might be gone.

[FriscoDawg]

Updated through Oklahoma's win over Texas.

Despite what the Big 12 talking heads think, Penn State might now be the fourth #1 seed, since it has the #2 SOS, is still #3 in RPI (ahead of Purdue), and played a close conference tournament final. Texas will likely stay #5 in RPI ahead of Connecticut, but the gap between 4 and 5 could be larger than that between 2 and 4.

[champion110]

Texas does not deserve a #1 seed after today's game, so I hope the committee gives them a 2 seed. Of course, it will be against everything the committee stands for to not give a #1 seed to a Big 12 team.

[bulldawg03]

Champ, I agree totally. This is complete BS and I"m sorry Frisco, but I think we should be higher. I remember all the talk in December when Oklahoma lost their football conference championship game that they should not be allowed to play in the Sugar Bowl. Actually, I remember some of those comments on here.

Now why can't that be applied to women's basketball?!? I mean really guys. Tennessee gets beat by an unranked Vandy. Look at all the other upsets! Where and what is the difference? If you can't win your conference tournament, you shouldn't be awarded a #1 seed. Now granted, I understand you're not going to give the Ivy or Big Sky tourney champ a #1 seed, but consider a Purdue or Houston, the latter probably not getting a 1. Do I at least have an arguement here?

[FriscoDawg]

I think there is an argument at least for the last #1 seed this year.

Tennessee is head-and-shoulders ahead in RPI and did go unbeaten in the SEC regular season. Give the Lady Vols a couple of SEC losses, and you might have a case against Tennessee being a top seed. As it is Tennessee is a #1 seed without question.

Duke is a no-brainer #1 with the #2 RPI and both ACC regular season and tournament titles. Purdue should be a #1 also with the #4 RPI and the Big Ten Tournament title. Beating the team in the final that gave the Boilermakers their only Big Ten losses is another plus.

Penn State, Texas, and Connecticut are similar since they all won regular season titles, but all lost in conference tournaments. Connecticut has the weakest RPI and didn't make the Big East final, so they should be seeded #2. Penn State may have three distinct edges on Texas--higher RPI, better conference tournament final performance, and maybe most importantly the 79-59 head-to-head win over the Lady Longhorns in December. Hopefully the committee will look at those factors and give Texas a #2 and Penn State a #1.

If Houston had a stronger SOS--Houston is 33 compared to the other six teams mentioned all in the Top 7--I wouldn't mind seeing them get a #1. But they deserve a #2 for sure with a #7 RPI.

And I wasn't calling for Oklahoma to be out of the Sugar Bowl. It was almost Oklahoma-USC anyway instead of USC-LSU.

[bulldawg03]

I wasn't attacking you Frisco about the Oklahoma thingie. Just talk in general I remember seeing

[FriscoDawg]

I wasn't attacking you Frisco about the Oklahoma thingie. Just talk in general I remember seeing

No offense taken. We did have some pretty good debates about the BCS formula though.

[FriscoDawg]

All games are now completed. I'll update with the final RPI numbers once they are posted on collegerpi.com. The final bracket projection from that site should also be interesting reading. At least that will kill some of the time before 4:00 pm tomorrow.

[aubunique]

Dump the BCS, the RPI ratings, the rest of the gibberish. Just win the games!
Techsters deserve a top seed in reality. If they had been on national TV a few times, plenty of people would recognize that fact this year! Just prove it, ladies!

[american]

4 LA schools in (tied with TN, one [or 2] behind TX)

Tech was 2-1 against tournament teams (if Rice doesn't make it), 5-2 (if they do).

Tulane finished in the top 150 in the RPI.

[FriscoDawg]

Unfortunately more TV coverage for Tech still wouldn't have offset the weak bottom part of the WAC--Nevada, Fresno State, Hawaii, and Boise State--or UALR, SFA, or even Southern (despite an NCAA bid). That's 12 of Tech's 29 games against teams below RPI 150--simply not good enough to get a high (1-4) seed.

Tulane staying 150 or above may assure that Tech will get no worse than a 6 seed if it has the expected 24 RPI. It would have been almost an automatic 1-seed penalty if Tulane had dropped below 150--it certainly was last year when Tech was penalized to a 5 seed with a 16 RPI.

[FriscoDawg]

Final RPIs and final projected bracket are posted at collegerpi.com. Direct links are in the top post of this thread.