FYI, We got another system moving into the GULF

[bulldawg03]

The HIGH that had been dominating the midwest has moved off toward the east toward the Appalachians - this could be dragging Rita abit Northward -

We need rain, but I don't want that bad...

I said it before this storm moved into the Gulf... I'm just playing ametuer meteorolgist, but I really don't like this northward turn and I think New Orleans is going to be very close to the east side of this. From the start, I didn't think that high would hold out long enough and as soon as it started to pull out, it was going to suck Rita with it, making the storm almost make a complete change in direction from west to a north, almost north-northeast...

[Ktulu7]

son of a.... I just looked at the damn thing now and it's turning up here.... my God I hope it doesn't come for Baton Rouge/Lafayette... we've got family that lost it all in N.O. that is now in New Iberia... can't afford this... I also hope my apartment can take another hit, though this would be WAY worse than Katrina for Baton Rouge. Also.. you can forget abour running down here, the traffic is insanity and there's no where for most people to go.

[saltydawg]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 220843
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

IF RITA HAS NOT PEAKED IN INTENSITY...IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS PRETTY
CLOSE TO DOING SO. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 897 MB...WHICH SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE
DURING THE PAST 8 HR. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ARE
165 KT IN THE NE EYEWALL...WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
161 KT OBSERVED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS A
INCREASINGLY STRONG OUTER WIND MAXIMUM THAT IS LIKELY THE START OF
A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THE END OF
THE ECLIPSE PERIOD SHOWS WARMING OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
BASED ON ALL OF THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 150 KT.

RITA HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/8. RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW RITA TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD WITH TIME. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
NOW CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL BETWEEN THE SABINE RIVER AND
MATAGORDA TEXAS IN 48-60 HR...WITH A NET EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO
SHIFTED EASTWARD ABOUT 30 N MI...CALLING FOR LANDFALL NEAR THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND GALVESTON BAY. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE NEW TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT OR WEST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF
GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. FIRST...THE
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WILL LIKELY KEEP RITA OVER THE LOOP CURRENT
LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO THE EFFECT OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IN THE FIRST
24 HR OR SO. SECOND...THE GFS AND SHIP MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR OVER RITA AFTER 24 HR...WHICH RESULTS IN SHIPS CALLING FOR
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 12 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EAST OF RITA...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
SUGGEST THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THE
GFS AND SHIPS MAY BE OVERDOING THE SHEAR. FINALLY...THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST ONE AND POSSIBLE MORE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES BEFORE
LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT
SHEAR AND REDUCED OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING...
ESPECIALLY AFTER RITA MOVES WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN 24-36 HR.
SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THIS WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS CAUSED BY
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR SLOW OVERALL WEAKENING BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS SHOWN BY SHIPS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[altadawg]

Definitely going to threaten SW LA now. YET, LSU still hasnt postponed their game with Tennessee.

[Dwayne From Minden]

Can you explain the barometric pressure? Those numbers look like spanish to me. Thanks

The lower the pressure, the more intense the storm -

930 is a VERY dangerous storm

910 is a killer

below 900 is unmentionable -

[Dawg04]

The latest computer models.

[Dawgpix]

Definitely going to threaten SW LA now. YET, LSU still hasnt postponed their game with Tennessee.

Tennessee playing the safe game. . . not flying into BR until Saturday, after spending night in Knoxville hotel.
--as per ESPN interview with Philip Fulmer

tm

[Dwayne From Minden]

Guys -

It is really looking like this thing is going to rip a wide path of destruction from the Galveston area all the way up through east TX and the western half of LA, maybe on into southern AR...

[altadawg]

The latest computer models.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vi...tic/early1.png

The majority of those computer models have one thing in common...the storm stalling out in NE Texas.

Hurricane center has now issues hurricane WARNINGS as far east as Morgan City.

I know why LSU hasnt cancelled the game yet.....it never rains in Tiger stadium. Seriously, they are acting very irresponsible if they dont postpone that game now that hurricane warnings have been issued farther east than anticipated.

[dhussdawg]

The majority of those computer models have one thing in common...the storm stalling out in NE Texas.

Hurricane center has now issues hurricane WARNINGS as far east as Morgan City.

I know why LSU hasnt cancelled the game yet.....it never rains in Tiger stadium. Seriously, they are acting very irresponsible if they dont postpone that game now that hurricane warnings have been issued farther east than anticipated.

Alta, alta, alta, you are forgetting the most important thing to LSU and its fans, football and money. I guarantee there will be plenty of morons willing to put it on the line to see their Tigers play (maybe even a few Tech alum). But seriously, yeh they need to really consider a postponement if this thing looks like it is turning north too soon, which it kind of does. I would hate to see the PR nightmare that would be if some people get hurt or killed.

[Dawgbitten]

Not looking good for Mount P, but we can desperately use the rain.

[altadawg]

Not looking good for Mount P, but we can desperately use the rain.

Noaa says 25 inches of rain possible in Eastern texas...

I think at the new advisory they are going to move their forecast track another 30 miles east..... Right to the La/Texas border.

[sik-m-boi]

Noaa says 25 inches of rain possible in Eastern texas...

I think at the new advisory they are going to move their forecast track another 30 miles east..... Right to the La/Texas border.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7845030

they update this thing pretty regularly...and you can compare ritas track to those of past storms.

[aubunique]

I hope everyone is safe but we need a drought-breaker here in Fayetteville, Arkansas. Half of the 25 would be about right for us!

[Dwayne From Minden]

Looks like the latest report has this thing hanging around N LA & S Ark until Wensday as a tropical depression...