You should have stayed a history major and starved
, because that's an excellent grasp of the war. I'd love to have a history student with that much interest in the war, you gave a really good summary of quite a bit of my opening and closing notes for the war.
One thing I must say about a couple of the earlier posts. The Southern fear was that all the slaves would be freed without compensation (along with the objections to what they saw as a perversion of the origina States Rights structure of the United States); however, that was not the northern plan. Lincoln was elected on a platform that called for the end of any expansion of slavery. The more intelligent elements of the Republican Party recognized that any plan calling for immediate emancipation would inevitably doom the Southern economy to collapse, as did happen at war's end.
Now, the problem would have been relying on Lincoln to be a skillful enough leader to keep control of the Republican Party so that the more radical elements, those that did gain control after the early years of Reconstruction proved such a failure, didn't gain the upper hand. But honestly, if secession had not come, it certainly seems likely Lincoln would have been able to craft a centrist coalition in Congress of Democrats and more moderate Republicans to prevent that from happening.
That of course leaves open what would happen when Lincoln's time in office was over and also how we would have managed to achieve emancipation in a gradual fashion as I have to believe emancipation was inevitable. The tragedy of the Civil War, (if you accept the idea that the continuation of the United States as we know it was a good thing), is, as Shelby Foote said so well in the Ken Burns documentary series, that we as Americans failed to do the thing we do best -- pragmatic compromise to make progress.
As we can see from how both sides of the political spectrum behave today, we've not yet got that compromising for the best outcome down yet, either.