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  1. #376
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    Re: Haynesville Shale

    Quote Originally Posted by dhussdawg View Post
    From what I understand, most hedge funds were selling oil once it got above 100 dollars, which means they were trying to put downward price pressure starting at that point. Our oil guys here at Citi said when prices were at 140 dollars that they were 99 percent confident that oil would be below 100 dollars within a year. Seems like the speculators knew the price was too high the whole time.

    There was a quick massive sell of because the American consumer finally became elastic and then everyone realized that the economy was in the toilet. Everyone wants to point fingers as to why oil went through the roof. I will give you two main drivers. Point 1: China has brought another buyer to the table. For too long, America has been the only buyer in town and we were used to cheap oil, which led to point 2: Americans abuse the freedom that cheap oil allowed us to have. Driving our huge trucks, SUVs, Hummers 30 miles a day back and forth from the burbs into town.

    You want to know why oil went to 145 dollars? Because it needed to. Maybe this will help Americans pull their heads out of their asses and adjust their lifestyles some and quit pissing oil down the drain. It is probably just a preview of things to come over the next few decades. God help us when China and India's economies boom again, Americans will be crapping their pants when oil shoots through the roof again. I hope we start using/finding more abundant and effective forms of energy outside of oil. We are at the mercy of the market now, our illusion of control is gone and 145 dollar oil proved that.
    Wow they really called that one, they should have said that oil was going to be below $30 within three months.

    Maybe oil needed to go that highfor Americans to become price adverse but it wasn't due to purely supply and demand. Trading futures or options is speculation or any investment to some extent. I read somewhere 60-70 percent of futures contracts are held by entities that have no direct involvement in the commodity. Is there anything wrong with profiting from legal trades? No, but to say that speculation had little effect on the price of oil is incorrect. Speculation is a major factor in the price as is nature, political conflicts, supply, demand, OPEC

  2. #377
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    Re: Haynesville Shale

    Quote Originally Posted by longdawgview View Post
    Wow they really called that one, they should have said that oil was going to be below $30 within three months.

    Maybe oil needed to go that highfor Americans to become price adverse but it wasn't due to purely supply and demand. Trading futures or options is speculation or any investment to some extent. I read somewhere 60-70 percent of futures contracts are held by entities that have no direct involvement in the commodity. Is there anything wrong with profiting from legal trades? No, but to say that speculation had little effect on the price of oil is incorrect. Speculation is a major factor in the price as is nature, political conflicts, supply, demand, OPEC
    The whole stock market is just speculation on future cash flows, so what is your point? Speculation always has an effect on prices, but oil demanded was greater than oil supplied until price broke the American consumer on oil's run up. Many times (like now) speculation on future economic health will contribute to higher oil prices, but everyone will speculate on that. IE producers will want to buy oil now if they think oil will go up in the future or buy call options to hedge against a price rise.

    How much effect does it have? As in how much premium does it add to the market? Figure that one out. The European Union has already determined that speculators had little effect on the price of oil (IE it was going to 140 with or without specs in the market). Only the blowhards here in the US are still trumpeting it. I wonder why??? Oh yeh, the American consumer is delusional and thinks oil should be cheap and plentiful whenever they want it. The game will no longer work that way. Get used to it. American has little power over the price of oil now. You can expect that when you consume 4 to 5 times as much as you produce. You will be at the mercy of the market.

  3. #378
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    Re: Haynesville Shale

    Quote Originally Posted by dhussdawg View Post
    The whole stock market is just speculation on future cash flows, so what is your point? Speculation always has an effect on prices, but oil demanded was greater than oil supplied until price broke the American consumer on oil's run up. Many times (like now) speculation on future economic health will contribute to higher oil prices, but everyone will speculate on that. IE producers will want to buy oil now if they think oil will go up in the future or buy call options to hedge against a price rise.

    How much effect does it have? As in how much premium does it add to the market? Figure that one out. The European Union has already determined that speculators had little effect on the price of oil (IE it was going to 140 with or without specs in the market). Only the blowhards here in the US are still trumpeting it. I wonder why??? Oh yeh, the American consumer is delusional and thinks oil should be cheap and plentiful whenever they want it. The game will no longer work that way. Get used to it. American has little power over the price of oil now. You can expect that when you consume 4 to 5 times as much as you produce. You will be at the mercy of the market.
    Are serious, the EU? , LOL, the US determine that it was about 30-40% of the price in 2006 Senate Report and there has been research pointing to as much as 60%. Truth is know one knows because it's unregulated but when large percentage of the contracts are held by investment banks, hedge funds you can guarantee it adds a premium to the price.

    There has also been times when reserves were high, refining capacity up and the price of oil was still skyrocketing due pure SPECULATION, and vice versa when oil was nose diving last year due to short calls.

    It is time to to regulate, Cmom' Obama lets bring some transparency to the futures market. Let's stop the FAT CATS, Goldman, Chase, Citi from profiting of the poor Americans. Is that what you want to hear? not from me I could care less but I do know that speculation is major factor in the price of oil.

  4. #379
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    Re: Haynesville Shale

    Quote Originally Posted by longdawgview View Post
    Are serious, the EU? , LOL, the US determine that it was about 30-40% of the price in 2006 Senate Report and there has been research pointing to as much as 60%. Truth is know one knows because it's unregulated but when large percentage of the contracts are held by investment banks, hedge funds you can guarantee it adds a premium to the price.

    There has also been times when reserves were high, refining capacity up and the price of oil was still skyrocketing due pure SPECULATION, and vice versa when oil was nose diving last year due to short calls.

    It is time to to regulate, Cmom' Obama lets bring some transparency to the futures market. Let's stop the FAT CATS, Goldman, Chase, Citi from profiting of the poor Americans. Is that what you want to hear? not from me I could care less but I do know that speculation is major factor in the price of oil.

    Exactly, the EU, I am serious because you would think they would grind this axe worse than the US, but our politicians are driven by the delusional masses that are the US public, who believe that their way of life should never be questioned or adjusted because we are free and entitled to it. That is fine, keep sticking your head in the sand. Regulate the hell out of it and when oil goes to 150 dollars again, then who are you going to pin it on? You obviously have little understanding of economics. Once again, the speculators were proven to be on the other end of those contracts, continually selling the whole time, not bidding the price up. You are probably one of those who thinks we should get rid of futures because you dont understand how much they help producers of oil and how they need speculators there to take on that price risk for them, so they can focus on the what they do best.

    All anybody is doing is speculating, but how much premium does it add to the market? All we can do is speculate about the future and what we think will happen and reality ends up shaping the price as we get closer (most of the time). You have no proof or a number, just talking points from the jugheads at Congress.

  5. #380
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    Re: Haynesville Shale

    Quote Originally Posted by dhussdawg View Post
    Exactly, the EU, I am serious because you would think they would grind this axe worse than the US, but our politicians are driven by the delusional masses that are the US public, who believe that their way of life should never be questioned or adjusted because we are free and entitled to it. That is fine, keep sticking your head in the sand. Regulate the hell out of it and when oil goes to 150 dollars again, then who are you going to pin it on? You obviously have little understanding of economics. Once again, the speculators were proven to be on the other end of those contracts, continually selling the whole time, not bidding the price up. You are probably one of those who thinks we should get rid of futures because you dont understand how much they help producers of oil and how they need speculators there to take on that price risk for them, so they can focus on the what they do best.

    All anybody is doing is speculating, but how much premium does it add to the market? All we can do is speculate about the future and what we think will happen and reality ends up shaping the price as we get closer (most of the time). You have no proof or a number, just talking points from the jugheads at Congress.
    Where is your proof to this? Do you know who and what positions were held during the run-up in oil.

    What is your proof that speculation has little effect on oil prices? Besides an obscure European Union about European Markets. You have offered up zero evidence to back up your position.
    I have offered up U.S. Senate investigation report, academic research, examples in the market. So who's sticking their head in the sand?
    I was being facetious, you couldn't pick that up from my over-the-top statement. Regardless of your blah blah blah opinions that Americans used too much oil, I don't want over-regulation, just transparency.
    Speculation is a essential part of the free-market. You said speculation has little effect on the price of oil which is false.

  6. #381
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    Re: Haynesville Shale

    Quote Originally Posted by longdawgview View Post
    Where is your proof to this? Do you know who and what positions were held during the run-up in oil.

    What is your proof that speculation has little effect on oil prices? Besides an obscure European Union about European Markets. You have offered up zero evidence to back up your position.
    I have offered up U.S. Senate investigation report, academic research, examples in the market. So who's sticking their head in the sand?
    I was being facetious, you couldn't pick that up from my over-the-top statement. Regardless of your blah blah blah opinions that Americans used too much oil, I don't want over-regulation, just transparency.
    Speculation is a essential part of the free-market. You said speculation has little effect on the price of oil which is false.
    Look, longdawgview, I know you like to come on here and act like a hardass, I have seen you at work before. I have already said that speculation helps determine prices, but everyone speculates on a multitude of issues affecting oil (especially given how intertwined our economy is with oil at the moment). If you are purely talking about speculators adding some huge premium to the market, I dont believe it. If any Congressmen/person really believed this ludicrous number about speculators adding 60 to 70 percent, they would shut the game down completely. However, after a snap reaction by Congress to shut it down, they thought better of it.

    I do agree that more transparency is a good thing, and I would also add that many of the derivative products (more in the real estate market) are completely useless and too hard to understand/price (credit default swaps in particular). I will say it like I always say it, I cant wait to get less oil dependent, if that ever happens within my lifetime. To be so dependent on a product that we only produce 20-25 percent of what we consume puts us at the mercy of the market. Luckily, Saudi Arabia has been our big buddy over the last 20 years and China's growth had been stalled til the last 7 years. I am afraid the future will be different, though.

  7. #382
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    Re: Haynesville Shale

    What about natural gas ya'll????
    When will we see the price go up?

  8. #383
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    Re: Haynesville Shale

    Quote Originally Posted by exit84 View Post
    What about natural gas ya'll????
    When will we see the price go up?
    EIA thinks there will be some bump in price next year (5.40 average compared to 3.80 this year), mostly due to reduction in drilling activity and more consumption next year predicated on decent economic recovery. So, any big moves in drilling activity will probably be avoided until demand/economy is definitely back if I were to guess.

    Therefore, prices and economy will need to be in decent recovery before drilling activity picks back up. This could be next year at the earliest, IMO. I did see that Haynesville added two horizontal rigs this week.

  9. #384
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    Re: Haynesville Shale

    Inventories of nat gas are higher right now than have ever been recorded before. They are literally running out of places to put the stuff.

    If we don't get some hurricanes in the gulf soon, lots of wells are going to have to be shut in. This does not bode well for drilling activity in the short term, for sure.

    Look for nat gas to sell for < $2.00 per mmbtu, and soon ??

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  10. #385
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    Re: Haynesville Shale

    We need more natural gas vehicles on the road.

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  11. #386
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    Re: Haynesville Shale

    Quote Originally Posted by saltydawg View Post
    We need more natural gas vehicles on the road.
    I believe it will take something big for that to happen (ie oil going and staying through the roof), in order to get more infrastructure in place. I figure it will happen at some point, but it will have to be spurned by something.

  12. #387
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    Re: Haynesville Shale

    An industry insider made a comment to me the some time back to the effect that 5 miles is as good as a 1,000 when it comes to finding hydrocarbons. Personally, I believe that's a convenient way of covering yourself, particularly when you're talking about vertical drilling, but new discoveries are being made every day, and I believe it has to do with technology advancements. The fact that drilling is still taking place in North Louisiana in this present market leads me to believe that certain cost efficiencies are taking hold.

    I believe we are only in the first or second inning of play with regard to what is presently going in North Louisiana/South Arkansas. There is a lot of virgin territory that remains untapped. A prime example is an article that came out some time ago about the abundance of untapped lignite in Southern Arkansas. I believe our neck of the woods may be a prime hunting ground for future hydrocarbon extraction.

  13. #388
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    Re: Haynesville Shale

    Has anyone heard the recent broadcasts on npr (www.npr.org) about natural gas and its potential? See the article entitled "Rediscovering Natural Gas By Hitting Rock Bottom." If you click the map (of the USA), they have an interactive display that shows the potential basins surrounding our area that is sure to excite activity, both now and in the future.

    Locally (Metropolitan Baton Rouge), on the website www.daily-report.com, there appears an article dated September 21st entitled "North vs South" by Jeremy Alford. The article propounds two things of interests to us: 1.) provided you believe the hype, the Haynesville Shale will become the nation's top-producing natural gas field within the next six years, and 2.) the area below Interstate 10 is becoming the stepchild of energy investments.

    Thoughts? Comments?

  14. #389
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    Re: Haynesville Shale

    Quote Originally Posted by exit84 View Post
    What about natural gas ya'll????
    When will we see the price go up?
    Hopefully never!

    Why should anyone want to pay more?

    And yes, I own Nat gas stocks. They're all doing fine at today's prices, and my monthly utility bills aren't ridiculous.

  15. #390
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    Re: Haynesville Shale

    Have fun with this guys. Obviously check out the plays/areas you guys are most interested in. For 95% of you it will probably be the Haynesville Shale play. My previous company we sold as well as new company are in the East Texas portion of the Deep Bossier play.

    http://www.encana.com/investors/presentations/investorday/pdfs/usa-division-overview.pdf

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