November 16 projected bowl selection process

[RealityCheck]

This is the breakdown of qualified, eligible, and projected teams that will be available to fill those guaranteed bids using the November 16 Sagarin Predictor ratings

ACC (9 bids including 1 BC$)—8 teams qualified/eligible, 1 other team projected 6-6
Bowl bids—Orange, Chick-Fil-A, Gator, Champs Sports, Music City, Meineke Car Care, Emerald, Humanitarian, EagleBank
Qualified—Boston College (7-3), Florida State (7-3, 6-3 FBS), Georgia Tech (7-3, 6-3 FBS), Maryland (7-3), Miami (FL) (7-3), North Carolina (7-3)
Eligible—Virginia Tech (6-4), Wake Forest (6-4)
Still in the hunt—Clemson (5-5, 4-5 FBS) must sweep at Virginia and vs South Carolina (projected to qualify)
Duke (4-6) must sweep at Virginia Tech and vs North Carolina (projected not to qualify)
North Carolina State (4-6) must sweep at North Carolina and vs Miami (FL) (projected not to qualify)
Virginia (5-5) must split vs Clemson and at Virginia Tech (projected not to qualify)

Big Ten (7 bids including 1 BC$, possible 2nd BC$)—7 teams qualified/eligible, 0 more teams projected to qualify
Bowl bids—Rose, Capital One, Outback, Alamo, Champs Sports, Insight, Motor City
Qualified—Iowa (7-4), Michigan State (9-2), Minnesota (7-4), Northwestern (8-3), Ohio State (9-2), Penn State (10-1)
Eligible—Wisconsin (6-5)
Still in the hunt—Illinois (5-6) must win at Northwestern (projected not to qualify)

Big 12 (8 bids including 1 BC$, likely 2nd BC$)—7 teams qualified, 0 more teams projected to qualify
Bowl bids—Fiesta, Cotton, Holiday, Gator/Sun, Alamo, Insight, Independence, Texas
Qualified—Kansas (6-5), Missouri (9-2), Nebraska (7-4), Oklahoma (9-1), Oklahoma State (9-2), Texas (10-1), Texas Tech 10-0, 9-0 FBS)
Still in the hunt—Colorado (5-6) must win at Nebraska (projected not to qualify)

Big East (6 bids including 1 BC$)—5 teams qualified/eligible, 1 more team projected to qualify
Bowl bids—BC$, Gator/Sun (or Notre Dame), Meineke Car Care, Papajohns.com, International, St. Petersburg
Qualified—Cincinnati (8-2), Connecticut (7-3), Pittsburgh (7-2)
Eligible—South Florida (6-3), West Virginia (6-3)
Still in the hunt—Louisville (5-5) must split vs West Virginia and at Rutgers (projected not to qualify)
Rutgers (5-5) must split vs Army and vs Louisville (projected 7-5)

CUSA (6 bids)— 4 teams qualified/eligible, 2 other teams projected to qualify
Bowl bids—Liberty, GMAC, Armed Forces, New Orleans, St. Petersburg, Texas
Qualified—Rice (7-3), Tulsa (8-2)
Eligible—East Carolina (6-4), Houston (6-4)
Still in the hunt—Marshall (4-6) must sweep at Rice and vs Tulsa (not projected to qualify)
Memphis (5-5) must split vs UCF and vs Tulane (projected to qualify)
Southern Miss (5-6) must win at SMU (projected 6-6)
Texas-El Paso (5-5) must win at Houston and at East Carolina (projected not to qualify)

Independent (should receive 2 bids)—2 teams qualified/eligible
Eligible—Navy (6-4) projected 7-5 (EagleBank Bowl), Notre Dame (6-4) projected 7-5

MAC (3 bids)—3 teams qualified, 3 other teams projected to qualify, 1 other team projected 6-6
Bowl bids—Motor City, GMAC, International
Qualified—Ball State (10-0), Central Michigan (8-2), Western Michigan (9-2)
Eligible—Buffalo (6-4)
Still in the hunt—Akron (5-5) must split at Ohio and at Temple (projected 6-6)
Bowling Green (5-5) must split vs Buffalo and at Toledo (projected to qualify)
Northern Illinois (5-5) must split at Kent State and vs Navy (projected to qualify)

MWC (4 bids plus possible BC$ bid)—4 teams qualified, 2 other teams projected 6-6
Bowl bids—Las Vegas, Armed Forces, Poinsettia, New Mexico
Qualified—Air Force (8-3), BYU (10-1), TCU (9-2), Utah (11-0)
Still in the hunt—Colorado State (5-6) must win at Wyoming (projected 6-6)
UNLV (5-6) must win at San Diego State (projected 6-6)

Pac 10 (7 bids including 1 BC$, possible 2nd BC$)—5 teams qualified/eligible, 0 other teams projected to qualify
Bowl bids—Rose, Holiday, Sun, Las Vegas, Emerald, Hawai’i, Poinsettia
Qualified—Oregon (8-3), Oregon State (7-3), USC (9-1)
Eligible—Arizona (6-4), Cal (6-4)
Still in the hunt—Arizona State (4-6) must sweep UCLA and at Arizona (projected not to qualify)
Stanford (5-6) must win at Cal (projected not to qualify)
UCLA (4-6) must win at Arizona State and vs USC (projected not to qualify)

$EC (9 bids including 1 BC$, likely 2nd BC$)—8 teams qualified/eligible, 0 more teams projected to qualify
Bowl bids—Sugar, Capital One, Cotton, Outback, Chick-Fil-A, Liberty, Music City, Independence, Papajohns.com
Qualified—Alabama (11-0), Florida (9-1), Georgia (9-2), LSU (7-3), South Carolina (7-4)
Eligible—Kentucky (6-5), Mississippi (6-4), Vanderbilt (6-4)
Still in the hunt—Arkansas (4-6) must sweep at Mississippi State and vs LSU in Little Rock (projected not to qualify)
Auburn (5-6) must win at Alabama (projected not to qualify)

SBC (1 bid)—1 team qualified/eligible, 4 other teams projected 6-6
Bowl bids—New Orleans
Contingency bowl bids—St. Petersburg (from Big East—not projected available), Papajohns.com (from $EC—projected available but not filled), Independence (from $EC—projected available but not filled)
Eligible—Troy (6-4)
Still in the hunt—Arkansas State (4-5) must win twice vs Florida Atlantic, at North Texas, at Troy (projected 6-6)
Florida Atlantic (5-5) must split at Arkansas State and vs Florida International (projected 6-6)
Florida International (4-5) must win two vs ULM, at Florida Atlantic, vs Western Kentucky (projected 6-6)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-5) must split at Troy and vs Middle Tennessee State (projected 6-6)
Middle Tennessee State (4-6) must sweep North Texas and at ULL (projected not to qualify)

WAC (3 bids)— 5 teams qualified/eligible, 1 more team projected to qualify
Bowl bids—Humanitarian, Hawai’i, New Mexico
Contingency bowl bid—Poinsettia (from Pac 10—projected available and filled)
Qualified—Boise State (10-0)
Eligible—Fresno Sate (6-4), Louisiana Tech (6-4), Nevada (6-4), San Jose State (6-5)
Still in the hunt—Hawai’i (5-5) must win two vs Idaho, vs Washington State, vs Cincinnati

[RealityCheck]

BC$ bid allocation and total guaranteed bids
Oregon State is projected to win out and get the Pac 10 automatic BC$ bid. Penn State is projected to beat Michigan State to win the Big Ten automatic BC$ bid. Utah and Boise State are projected to win out, and this would give Utah an automatic BC$ bid. USC and Ohio State are also projected to win out to make both of them eligible for the other BC$ at-large bid.

BCS bids would be allocated this way...Big 12—2, $EC—2, Big Ten/Pac 10—3 between them, ACC—1, Big East—1, non-BC$—1 (Utah projected)

Bowl selections
After allocating guaranteed bids and the projected Pac 10 Poinsettia opening to the WAC, here are the projected open bids and 7-5+ teams available to fill them….

Projected Remaining Open Bids (6)—Motor City (from Big Ten with 2 Big Ten teams in BC$) or Emerald (from Pac 10 with 2 teams in BC$), Independence (both sides), Texas (from Big 12), Hawai’i (from Pac 10), Papajohns.com (from $EC)

Projected 7-5+ at-large teams (5)—Big East 1 or Notre Dame, MAC 3, WAC 1 (likely Louisiana Tech)

At this point in the process, 67 teams including all 7-5+ teams would already be placed in a bowl with one bid still open....
ACC--9, Big Ten 7, Big 12--7, Big East--6, CUSA--6, Independent--2, MAC--6, MWC--5, Pac 10--5, $EC--8, SBC--1, WAC (including Tech)--5...total--67.

Projected 6-6 at-large pool (1 of 7 teams gets a bid)—MAC 1 (Akron), MWC 1 (Colorado State or UNLV), SBC 4 (Arkansas State, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Louisiana-Lafayette), WAC 1 (San Jose State)

[RealityCheck]

Tech is projected to finish 7-5 with a win over New Mexico State (-4.74) and a loss at home to Nevada (+7.28). The Fresno State at San Jose State winner this Friday will get to 7 wins, and the loser will almost certainly not get 7 wins and be in the 6-6 pool. Hawai'i must win two games to be eligible for the Hawai'i bid.

If Nevada does not beat Boise in Reno and then loses to Tech, the Pack would also be in the 6-6 pool. Ironically, Tech beating Nevada could force it to take one of the WAC guaranteed bids since the Poinsettia contingency bid must be filled with a 7-5+ team after the other three WAC bids are filled, That is unless some serious horse-trading takes place, and that type of horse-trading has happened before. But that would still leave the WAC with only 4 guaranteed bowl teams with two WAC teams projected in a pool of 8 6-6 teams for the final two bowl spots.

[JAY]

Projected Remaining Open Bids (6)—Motor City (from Big Ten with 2 Big Ten teams in BC$) or Emerald (from Pac 10 with 2 teams in BC$), Independence (both sides), Texas (from Big 12), Hawai’i (from Pac 10), Papajohns.com (from $EC)

Projected 7-5+ at-large teams (5)—Big East 1 or Notre Dame, MAC 3, WAC 1 (likely Louisiana Tech)

Rutgers or USF could be that 7-5 Big East team. Scout.com has Rutgers in the Independence Bowl.

It would be good for the WAC to get Rutgers or USF in the Hawaii Bowl if the PAC-10 doesnt fill it.

[techdrummer]

Great analysis RealityCheck!

I appreciate the info. GO DAWGS!!

[RealityCheck]

Great analysis RealityCheck!

I appreciate the info. GO DAWGS!!

Thanks for the comments. I'll post an updated analysis after Saturday's games. I also plan to post "Games to Watch" on Friday.