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Thread: Brown Dense

  1. #91
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    Re: Brown Dense

    We just had a guy come and talk to us from PIRA, he had some interesting info.

    The liquids plays (Eagle Ford, Granite Wash, and parts of Marcellus) are economically viable without Natural Gas (ie price could be 0), so they are going to keep dumping natural gas on the market because it is just gravy for them. Not surprising because the Bakken is currently just flaring their natural gas (.1 BCF per day), and it isnt quite the same thing but similar with oil products. Bakken will have pipelines in place by the end of summer to take that associated gas to some market to hook in.

    PIRA was very bearish on price going forward because of all of the production.

    Cheasapeake is 98% hedged on their NG production through 2011, so unless they do things to shake things up, their stock price wont move that much IMO. However, they are trying to shake things up obviously and get rid of some of their assets and acquire liquids plays.

    He also gave the order of the shale burnouts, he had Barnett first (because of age), Woodford second (because of position in Oklahoma), and Haynesville third (because of quick well depletion). Haynesville does have the highest initial production by a long shot (probably due to the depth and ease of drilling).

  2. #92
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    Re: Brown Dense

    Quote Originally Posted by dhussdawg View Post
    We just had a guy come and talk to us from PIRA, he had some interesting info.

    The liquids plays (Eagle Ford, Granite Wash, and parts of Marcellus) are economically viable without Natural Gas (ie price could be 0), so they are going to keep dumping natural gas on the market because it is just gravy for them. Not surprising because the Bakken is currently just flaring their natural gas (.1 BCF per day), and it isnt quite the same thing but similar with oil products. Bakken will have pipelines in place by the end of summer to take that associated gas to some market to hook in.

    PIRA was very bearish on price going forward because of all of the production.

    Cheasapeake is 98% hedged on their NG production through 2011, so unless they do things to shake things up, their stock price wont move that much IMO. However, they are trying to shake things up obviously and get rid of some of their assets and acquire liquids plays.

    He also gave the order of the shale burnouts, he had Barnett first (because of age), Woodford second (because of position in Oklahoma), and Haynesville third (because of quick well depletion). Haynesville does have the highest initial production by a long shot (probably due to the depth and ease of drilling).
    did he know what to expect for Lincoln parish north of ruston? not sure what time frame it would take for Devon to make a game plan and move in after the seismic stuff is done. anybody know who Devon would used to transport their products to the larger lines? Centerpoint??


  3. #93
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    Re: Brown Dense

    Quote Originally Posted by Choudawg86 View Post
    did he know what to expect for Lincoln parish north of ruston? not sure what time frame it would take for Devon to make a game plan and move in after the seismic stuff is done. anybody know who Devon would used to transport their products to the larger lines? Centerpoint??
    No idea, his scope was broader. I work for Centerpoint, but I am on the unregulated side of the business, so it would be illegal for me to know any of that information.

    He also made one other good point that I hadnt thought of. The low price of natural gas versus oil has given manufacturing facilities in the US (which tend to use NG as a feedstock) a competetive advantage over manufacturing facilities abroad (which also use NG, but it is indexed off of oil). This causing some plants that had been mothballed to open back up and plans on building new facilities, which means some people are "trusting" these low nat gas prices (ie dont see them having that volatility they have been known for).

  4. #94
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    Re: Brown Dense

    I tend to agree on ng prices being soft in the USA for a while barring some unseen political action or worldwide geopolitical event.

  5. #95
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    Re: Brown Dense

    Quote Originally Posted by ddgravy View Post
    I tend to agree on ng prices being soft in the USA for a while barring some unseen political action or worldwide geopolitical event.
    I believe the floor is around $3 because that is the price of powder river basin coal on a per MMBtu basis. If NG gets below PRB coal, then there will be some major coal displacement by NG which would lead to price suppor at that level. But overall, I think you are right. I think it would take some political action that would make all coals more expensive, incentives to use NG in vehicles/other processes, or something of the like to boost demand for NG. Because it seems like a healthy supply is here to stay for a while.

  6. #96
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    Re: Brown Dense

    Anyone own property in East/West Carroll? If so, we need to talk. Morehouse? We'll talk in a few weeks.

  7. #97
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    Re: Brown Dense

    Quote Originally Posted by shreveportdawg View Post
    Anyone own property in East/West Carroll? If so, we need to talk. Morehouse? We'll talk in a few weeks.
    I can get some real quick :P


  8. #98
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    Re: Brown Dense

    The local oil patch has been quiet, of late. With the price of natural gas now above $4 and the price of a barrel of oil hovering around $100, what is the possibility of increased activity in our near future?

  9. #99
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    Re: Brown Dense

    Quote Originally Posted by latech80 View Post
    The local oil patch has been quiet, of late. With the price of natural gas now above $4 and the price of a barrel of oil hovering around $100, what is the possibility of increased activity in our near future?
    If it's shale gas, and if you believe this article has basis in fact, you might conclude that the "possibility of increased activity in our near future" is not as high as you otherwise would have hoped ??

    "“Money is pouring in” from investors even though shale gas is “inherently unprofitable,” an analyst from PNC Wealth Management, an investment company, wrote to a contractor in a February e-mail. “Reminds you of dot-coms".”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/26/us/26gas.html

  10. #100
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    Re: Brown Dense

    Rigs in the Haynesville have been going down, same with Barnett and other dry plays. Marcellus and Eagle Ford are gaining rigs because of the NGL's that are there and their oil based price.

    Haynesville and other dry plays are starting to respond to low gas prices. People talk about them losing money on the wells, which they probably were. However, many of these companies hedged their production through 2010 and into 2011 at or around $5 per MMBtu. This made it viable for them to drill because their effective price was 5 dollars not low 4's. Now, that those hedges are running up and held by production leases are rolling off, many forecasters are saying we have hit our production peak or are about to soon.

  11. #101
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    Re: Brown Dense

    The last thing I heard about the Devon shoot down around Ruston is they took Cajun off getting the permits because it was going too slow then changed to Allstate Permitting Services....but it's still on as of a month ago or so.

  12. #102
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    Re: Brown Dense

    http://www.gohaynesvilleshale.com/gr...countyarkansas

    I guess where I'm losing it is if the Brown Dense is a losing proposition, then why do the following articles occur in the above link? For the last 2 years now, I have heard that the BD is much ado about nothing, and yet, word is leaking out from the AOGC that it is an "embryonic play." Cognitive Dissonance?

  13. #103
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    Re: Brown Dense


  14. #104
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    Re: Brown Dense

    Tuscaloosa Marine Shale is the new mad dash

  15. #105
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    Re: Brown Dense

    Quote Originally Posted by ddgravy View Post

    Good report DG..... still too bad the WH is sitting on the industry.

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