When will the conference expansion dominos start to fall?

[johnnylightnin]

Some say things need to be in place by June 30. Delany says 6-12 months. What do you think? When will the first wave of the upcoming expansion hit?

[PawDawg]

It's a chess match now. The SEC saying they will be "proactive" ...I love it!

Big 11 will React to whatever ND's final decision is. I'm guessing the Big11 has told them they need an answer w/in 30 days. W/out ND, they move w/Big East teams only. With ND, the "Super Conference" will be on us.

I'm betting the PAC10 comes out on the bad end of this whole realignment thing.

[Dwayne From Minden]

I don't think it will be by July 1st, but the first move could be made by Oct 31st...

[TechDynamic]

I think it's funny that Joe Pa was quoted as saying he thinks the PAC-10 will be the first to expand.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footbal...ansion-paterno

[johnnylightnin]

Unfounded rumor anyone? Why not? It is the off-season after all...

http://forums.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=451&f=2368&t=5896759

If it's after June 30, The Big 10 must know what the amount is for a buy-out of the Big East's 27 month clause...I think they are gonna want to roll on this thing by the 2012 season.

[Dwayne From Minden]

And if this is supposed to be secret until June I don't see an announcement made to a hundred 19-21 year old kids.


Most relevant statement made to date on this subject....

[hookdown]

Yeah, if this was true, I would suspect that it would be all over SI and ESPN. Not saying that the Presidents have not agreed to something, but I doubt the locker room story.



So what happens if you expand to 12 and the next guy comes along and goes to 14 or 16. Do you go back and do Expansion, Part II? Have to keep up with the Jones' you know...

[johnnylightnin]

http://byu.scout.com/2/965993.html

Hansen enjoyed his Junior Day visit to Utah and commented on how impressive it was to listen to Ute head coach Kyle Whittingham and other coaches. Pac-10 expansion, something that Whittingham described as “being a big possibility," was discussed with the recruits according to Hansen.

[GatorDawg]

The conference I am most intrigued in is the Big XII. They could very well lost Colorado to the Pac 10. They could lose Missouri to the Big Ten. If they need to replace 2 schools then who will they go to? TCU seems like an obvious choice. People will always say Arkansas is a better fit in the Big XII. But they make more money in the SEC. Will they consider the move to the Big XII? If not the Big XII is left with a choices of Houston, Tulsa, etc. See how close Tech is to the level of team being considered? New Mexico and UNLV might be considered as well but both programs seem more like Pac 10 style schools than Big XII (as does BYU).

What does Houston or Tulsa add to the Big XII and would their big brothers in their state want them in the same conference? I throw Tulsa out instantly. No chance OU and OK State want that. Houston maybe. The only benefit though would be the Big XII would probably have a Texas division now instead of a South division.

The only other possibilities to me are Air Force and Colorado State. Military institutions don't seem to have a high cap about what they bring. Air Force will never be anything more than they are. And Colorado State is the rival of Colorado. They may actually be considered before any CUSA schools. But it might provide a bad stigma in the minds of Big XII presidents to take a rival of a school that just left. Along with leaving questions on where the division will fall for North and South if TCU takes the 1st open spot.

[brtransplant]

The conference I am most intrigued in is the Big XII. They could very well lost Colorado to the Pac 10. They could lose Missouri to the Big Ten. If they need to replace 2 schools then who will they go to? TCU seems like an obvious choice. People will always say Arkansas is a better fit in the Big XII. But they make more money in the SEC. Will they consider the move to the Big XII? If not the Big XII is left with a choices of Houston, Tulsa, etc. See how close Tech is to the level of team being considered? New Mexico and UNLV might be considered as well but both programs seem more like Pac 10 style schools than Big XII (as does BYU).

What does Houston or Tulsa add to the Big XII and would their big brothers in their state want them in the same conference? I throw Tulsa out instantly. No chance OU and OK State want that. Houston maybe. The only benefit though would be the Big XII would probably have a Texas division now instead of a South division.

The only other possibilities to me are Air Force and Colorado State. Military institutions don't seem to have a high cap about what they bring. Air Force will never be anything more than they are. And Colorado State is the rival of Colorado. They may actually be considered before any CUSA schools. But it might provide a bad stigma in the minds of Big XII presidents to take a rival of a school that just left. Along with leaving questions on where the division will fall for North and South if TCU takes the 1st open spot.

We should be pulling for Houston to get into the Big XII in order to open up a spot in the western half of CUSA. Geography will be a factor in CUSA's decision when it comes to replacing a school that leaves. Our location is something that we have going for us in that regard.

[hookdown]

The top replacements for the Big 12 would be in order Arkansas, BYU, and New Mexico. Very much up in the air as to whether Arkansas would jump back. Houston used to have a bad rep in the SWC and I am not sure if things have changed so that they would get an invite in case there is an opening.


Remember, it is all about the money. TCU and Houston do not bring new markets into the conference, the three above do. But what would the Big 12 look like if the stars line up and Colorado, Missouri, Texas, A&M, OU, and OSU all leave? Would the remaining schools stay together and would it remain an AQ conference? Very interesting situation at that point.

[Dwayne From Minden]

Arkansas will not be jumping to the bigxii based on the revenue streams I've seen from the current SEC 12 revenue stream, much less an INCREASED SEC 14 or 16 revenue stream

The movement in the BIG THREE - SEC, PAC10 & BIG10 will be all about $$$ nothing about proximity or region

[johnnylightnin]

Yep...Arkansas isn't going anywhere. I seriously doubt TCU or Houston get much serious consideration either. The Big XII already dominates Texas. The REAL question is whether or not a MWC without BYU and Utah is still attractive to Boise, TCU, Houston, ect. If it's not, CUSA could make a play for TCU. I know they hate SMU, but CUSA might be their best option. I would say the WAC could position itself to resorb the creme of the the crop from the MWC leftovers, but we all know Benson will be reactive and too late for anything like that.

[PawDawg]

Arkansas will not be jumping to the bigxii based on the revenue streams I've seen from the current SEC 12 revenue stream, much less an INCREASED SEC 14 or 16 revenue stream

The movement in the BIG THREE - SEC, PAC10 & BIG10 will be all about $$$ nothing about proximity or region

The TV would contracts be renegotiated when changes occur. That's good for an SEC Super 16, but bad for a re-aligned Big 12. Again, I see the PAC10 coming out on the bad end of this thing no matter who they pick up. They just don't have any leverage.

[Dwayne From Minden]

The TV would contracts be renegotiated when changes occur. That's good for an SEC Super 16, but bad for a re-aligned Big 12. Again, I see the PAC10 coming out on the bad end of this thing no matter who they pick up. They just don't have any leverage.

I think the winners will be in this order -

Big10 - largest revenue stream will get larger
SEC - will try to match Big14 but will fall just short
PAC10 - will come out better with a broader TV base
MWC - end the end will end up as an AQ (this is my wildcard-caveat can only lose one school to PAC12)

The losers will be in this order -

BigXii - outcome will have remaining schools longing for old SWC & Big8
BigEast Football (Basketball only schools will split from thier football brethern)
ACC - its a basketball conference and will always be a basketball conference