If the big 12 gets raided by the big 10 and the sec I wouldn't be suprised to see Tech in a conference with remnants of the raid like TTech, Iowa State, and Baylor. I just don't see the SEC expanding Westward
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If the big 12 gets raided by the big 10 and the sec I wouldn't be suprised to see Tech in a conference with remnants of the raid like TTech, Iowa State, and Baylor. I just don't see the SEC expanding Westward
You know who doesn't feel sorry for the Cyclones? The 15-25 non-AQ teams who are better than them on the field but don't get a fat BCS check from their respective conferences every year in exchange for, well, existing.Originally Posted by Champ967
Last edited by inudesu; 05-05-2010 at 11:25 AM.
$. It's about $. If anything like this ever actually does happen the driving force will be money. Just money. The Big 10 and Pac 10 will talk about academics, but it's just about money. TV eyeballs and potential cable deals and media markets and national brands and (to a much lesser extent) butts in seats.
IF the SEC decides to expand they are going to invite the schools that bring the most potential money into the equation. No other school compares to Texas in this regard.
Having said all that, this whole "superconferences are going to happen any day now" thing has played out before. And we still ended up with the "Big" East. So we'll see.
Buck:
Inudesu beat me to the punch on this. Don’t think of it in terms of anything but money, because that’s what’s driving realignment.
As I have said in another thread on this topic, Texas and Texas A&M will end up in another conference, possibly with the other Texas schools or with OU and OSU. The Big 12, even in its current lineup, can’t generate the TV dollars the Big 10 or the SEC currently generates, much less what each could potentially generate a decade from now.
The difference over a 10-year period could be hundreds of millions of dollars. There are a couple of reasons.
First, the Big 10 and SEC can expand with teams that add markets with value, both in terms of advertising dollars and cable subscription fees. The Big 12 doesn’t have that type of potential in any expansion candidates.
Without that potential, they don’t have the ability to expand to 16 in a way that would dramatically increase revenue through a TV partnership.
Second, the Big 12’s current markets, although impressive, don’t generate the type of national numbers the SEC generates, even with Texas, Texas A&M, and Nebraska in the league. ESPN was clear in that fact when they partnered with the SEC.
The Big 12’s TV deal is up in 2012, and they’re expected to find what the ACC is finding in their current TV negotiations – less money, maybe far less money than what the SEC got from ESPN.
If you were to take away Nebraska, Missouri, and Colorado from the Big 12’s new deal, you would have trouble getting much more than you’re getting now - $7 million per year per school, on average. A little more for Texas.
Now, compare that with what the schools in an expanded Big 10 will be making five years from now - $30 to $40 million per school per year. An expanded SEC, including Texas and three additional current Big 12 schools might command similar money from ESPN.
Last edited by The Historian; 05-05-2010 at 01:52 PM.
Makes you wonder why schools like MSU, Ole Miss and Vandy are still in the SEC... They get big checks because of the other schools. I bet the SEC would love to dump the MS schools for Texas and A&M.
Talking about SEC expansion, I think they try to move west before they move east. While GT, Clemson, FSU, and Miami would be good picks I just don't see Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina wanting them. The best chance for getting in is GT in my opinion. They were a former SEC member so they have that going for them. I just don't see South Carolina wanting Clemson. SC and Clemson have a Auburn/Alabama blood feud and absolutely hate each other. And as for FSU and Miami, I just don't see Florida wanting them to cut into their SEC monopoly of the wonderful recruiting area that is the Sunshine State. But hey it could happen, these are crazy times we are living in.
thats the difference I dont think Florida wants the other schools but Georgia is pushing for Georgia Tech. dont know about Clemson.
The Belt will cease to exist after all of this and the dregs of the belt will have no place to go. Sorry, but all the other conferences will have first pick to fill their slots. The belt will have last pick. They are lowest on the ladder. I can see the belt folding before CUSA, MAC, CUSA, or MWC. I don't think there is a chance we end up in the belt. I think there is a better chance that we end up in a different CUSA or WAC - possibly a larger one.
Most belt schools should be the MOST afraid.
Let me tell you Champ from every thing I have been told the WAC will cease to exsist at least in it current form. I'm about 90% sure Tech will not be in the WAC.
Montana considering FBS
http://news.collegesportsinfo.com/20...de-to-fbs.html
They aren't good picks, but not because of existing rivalries. I mean, they play those teams anyway so it isn't like an "I'm too good for you" thing.
The reason they aren't good choices is because they don't add much in the way of media markets. If you're the SEC commish and you expand, you have to be able to go back to ESPN and say "I know you gave us this record breaking huge contract, but now we're offering X, Y, and Z new markets so give us more money or we'll form an SEC network and cut a deal with Comcast."
And if they add Clemson, GT, FSU, Miami or some mix of those schools, the ESPN honchos fire back with "we already had those markets with USC, UGA, and UF so nothing changes."
But if you can walk in and offer tvs in Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, Houston, El Paso, Fort Worth, Arlington and all points between - that changes the deal. ESPN will fork over big money or you really can put your own network in tons of markets.
Superconferences are quite possibly the worst case scenario for us. We haven't done enough yet to warrant getting in the group we should be in in say 5 years. I don't think it is the absolute worst case scenario in that we would be doomed. But we would be missing the boat on taking our program off now. And unfortunately that might lead to our fan base taking a step backwards.
They can't move up until they get invited to a conference.
Why would the WAC fold. I could see them adding belt schools before they fold. I could see a CUSA/WAC combo, as well. They are higher on the pecking order and I don't think even our great Commish could mess that up.
HOWEVER, if the WAC were to fold, CUSA and MWC will pick up the teams. I don' think there is a chance they all fold - more likely mergers under a current conference name, since a new conference misses automatic bids in Basketball for a few years.
If this thing really fractures the Big 12, then we're looking at Katy-Bar-the-Door for everyone not in the Big 10, SEC, PAC10 or ACC. Lately there is more and more info from key media sources indicating a fracture of the Big 12 is developing.
A couple of weeks ago I didn't think the situation was nearly so volitile. I think everyone was content to let things develop until after July at the earliest. But folks like Nebraska seem to be more pro-active at securing their future rather than waiting for the pone to ring. And they're starting to get vocal about it. If word gets out about deals having been made behind the scenes, then the dominoes will start falling sooner rather than later.
If the Big 12 really blows up then who knows what MWC, WAC, CUSA, Big East end up looking like. I think Bluecrew is correct. It is not beyond the realm of possiblities that we end up in a conference with Iowa St.
I hope we have some pretty spiffy dancing shoes because there's no telling who we'll end up dancing with.
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