Discussion:
Things are coming together for the first Winter Weather Event tonight. An upper level disturbance will move into the area from the northwest this evening and tap into Pacific mid level moisture that will saturate from the top down. The upper disturbance, which is currently in the Colorado Rockies, will slide into the Texas panhandle by sunset, then progress SE into North Texas over the Dallas Metrolex by midnight, and into North Central Louisiana by daybreak Wednesday. As a result of this system, a Winter Weather Advisory will likely be issued for northern parts of the ArkLaTex tonight...as some light snow accumulations are expected.
Primary Winter Precip Type and Locations:
A rain/snow mixture may be seen during the early evening hours in areas north of I-30. The rain/snow mixture will then spread even further SE into the I-20 corridor by
1000 pm. The airmass will continue to cool during the night, and the precip will change over to all snow as we approach the midnight hour.
Impacts:
Subfreezing surface temperatures will continue to be observed mainly in McCurtain County and the adjacent counties of SW Arkansas. And this is where we will likely see snow begin to accumulate. Temperatures in these area will likely reach freezing just after midnight...allowing snow accumulations to reach near an inch. Bridges and overpasses in other parts of southern Arkansas and the extreme northeast Texas counties may see some accumulation...but accumulation values should remain less than an inch. North Central Louisiana may see some accumulation on bridges and overpasses...but this will depend on which locations make it to near freezing overnight. Any accumulations in LA will remain confined mainly to the area north of I-20. Little to no accumulation is expected south of the I-20 corridor.
See image below for snow accumulation predictions:
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