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According to Kirk Bohls (Austin American-Statesman sports writer) the conference would go first after Notre Dame and Arky, then when they land back on earth the four they would be looking at would be Louisville, Houston, BYU, and AFA. I think Louisville falls in the same category as Notre Dame and Arkansas, though. AFA might, too.
Kansas and Missouri to the BE in the event of a crack-up is a long-time rumor. Kansas had those ducks lined up last time around. The question is whether they believe that the Big 12 will remain solvent. If it does, there's a good chance that they stay where they are. It all depends on who, other than A&M, leaves.
University of Houston '01. Any references to "we" or "us" likely refer to UH. Cheers!
I agree in theory except that is the EXACT same thing that has been said for years about Texas and A&M. Also whose to say they don't take Clemson or FSU in the East and OU/OSU/A&M in the West and go to 16? And the MVC might be a great home for those other sports that OU would need a home for and I think they would be more than happy to have OU place their non SEC Olympic Sports.
If OU stays you might look for BYU, TCU or Houston to possibly replace A&M but that would still be an unstable partnership that could break up as well.
I personally think a lot of the other Big12 teams are biting the hand that feeds them by getting pissed at Texas and they are going off of emotions rather than their brains. A&M on the other hand has a legit reason to take action. Think back to the 80's and 90's. They were UT's equal back then and domintating the SWC in Football. They have since been passed by UT about as quickly as Boise passed us! They are probably thinking the $$ and prestige of the SEC is the only thing that can combat the ESPN/Texas Network.
I believe it's going to happen because history always repeats itself.
If you recall, the real beginning of this whole conference shakeup started when the old SWC schools started turning each other in for NCAA violations. That ended with SMU getting the death penalty, and eventually the end of the SWC, when the four Texas teams jumped to the Big 8, forming the Big 12. The ripples of that have basically caused every realignment since then.
This is the place where it started, this is the place that caused all of the stir a year ago with the Pac 16 talk, and this is the place where it will happen again.
I think the Big 12 could be in a lot of trouble. If Texas goes independent (very likely with their new TV deal and the huge $$$ from it) or if A&M goes to the SEC, then the others would be scrambling for a home. OU would get an invite and they would have a fight with the legislature, but the legislature can't stop the SEC from taking A&M, so they might have to give in and let OU bolt, because the other option would be for both of their teams to be left in a very weak conference.
You have to wonder what the fallout from this would be. BYU and Colorado State would probalby get invites from the Big 12, but that doesn't replace the strength of A&M and OU. If Texas takes their TV deal and goes Indy, how long before schools like USC, Florida, Alabama, etc. do the same? This could be huge, or it could end in a whimper like it did last time. It could also just be political wrangling by A&M to get better treatment from the Big 12. If that is the case, then it will end in a whimper.
We need to make sure that we end up on the positive side of things this time. If the Big12 does have a major shakeup, we need to look at getting into the "new" Big12...whatever that will be. We are playing too many stupid games with CUSA, and I don't like having my alma mater obviously begging someone who has passed us over twice. If the Big 12, or a new version of the SWC, offers an alternative, then screw CUSA. If they lose Houston, ECU, and UCF, then it won't get a great place to go to anyway. Having an opportunity to hop in with Texas Tech, Baylor, maybe OK State, and maybe BYU, would be much more attractive. I know it's definitely not a given that this would happen, but we need to aim higher.
It's time for big thinking in Tech Athletics.
That's a good point about the MVC.
Regarding OU and OSU, it's a different situation than Texas and A&M. It was just last year when Texas and A&M were saying that they would be fine going their separate ways. That wasn't the case with OU and OSU, which were determined to stay together. Even when it looked like the Big 12 might collapse, OU was allegedly telling SEC that it would need to accept them both. OU will do what OU has to do in the face of a dying conference, but I am skeptical that they will do it opportunistically, killing OSU's conference in the process.
By most accounts, there is not much mutual interest between TCU and the Big 12. I guess TCU has decided that it excels when it's on its own and the Big 12 already having a private school in its ranks. Kirk Bohls mentioned BYU, Houston, AFA, and Louisville. I can think of a few others, if some of those decline or they determine that they want to go in a different direction. Colorado State and New Mexico really chose a bad time to stink to high heaven.
University of Houston '01. Any references to "we" or "us" likely refer to UH. Cheers!
Texas will likely go independent if both A&M and OU leave, but they won't go independent on their own. Not only does it create state gov problems, but right now they are having their cake and eating it, too. It's in their best interest for the Big 12 to remain solvent, so long as they don't have to sacrifice much money to make it happen.
I don't think A&M leaving, by itself, will necessarily create a scramble. The real threat is the SEC turning to Oklahoma and Missouri. If they're worried about competitiveness, they can bring in BYU. If they're worried about Texas markets, they can bring in UH. A&M has really been off the radar lately, anyway. It will likely be a downgrade (losing the Texas/A&M rivalry hurts, and A&M is a rich school), but A&M has kind of been off the radar anyway.
University of Houston '01. Any references to "we" or "us" likely refer to UH. Cheers!
Wish I could find the article, I think it was in the Boston Globe, from 3 or 4 months ago. It had a lot of detailed information on what was going down during the B12 turmoil last year. One key point was that the SEC had Clemson signed up for the east pending Texas A&M joining on the west side. So it's pretty reasonable they'd give it another look.
In the same article, I believe it mentioned Kansas, Missouri, Kansas St & I think Iowa having a done deal to go to the Big East if the B12 fragmented. With TCU already there, certainly makes sense to run those traps again.
I'll see if I can find the article and will post it if its still available. The Boston Globe has proven to be a reliable source.
Bruce ( the Ex-Aggie) is saying that the B12 schools & UT are scrambling to keep OU & the folks in the north happy. He said they might switch the divisions and get the championship game back. That is why they are looking at 3 to replace one. He hates UH and probably wouldn't agree that they would be worthy, but I do know from the folks at my son's radio station that the Coogs are using their past friends in the SW, along with all of their political connections to get their program elevated to AQ, and also Tier 1!!!!! They could be the 3rd with BYU & AFA, which would make sense. They would put BYU, AFA, & Houston with UT, Tech, & Baylor - leaving the Oklahoma schools with the rest of the north in that division. You would re-add the Denver market and add the SLC to get a better deal with ESPN for the conference, while BYU & UT keep their networks. He is hearing all this directly out of College Station!
UT's AD does not want to go independent because of the olympic sports!!!! If they go Indy in football, then the rest of the league will vote them out in all other sports!
"It's Good to be a Bulldog"!!!