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Thank you!Originally Posted by 4down20
Where did your name 4down20 come from?
Thanks for the answer and the complement! The reason I asked is that we experienced a lot of turnover since last season (team and coaching) and to predict 12-0 for us is just, well frankly, unrealistic. Plus our D should be better (how can it not be?), but it could improve a lot and still be bad. And you are absolutely correct that preseason, especially this early, mean nothing.
He's a fan of Jack Bicknell III.
Fourth down and 20 = run the halfback draw up the middle.
Ryan Moats rushes for four yards. First down Hawaii.
When you see all those Dawgs being signed by NFL teams, you go, Wow!
Then you go, Oh, but that means all those guys have to be replaced.
New coaching staff, new philosophy, new conference, lots of new faces! Yeah, 12-0! Right.
But you don't play anyone is the kicker.
If you look at the power rankings, it only has you ranked 27th overall with a score of 79.03. That score is where it takes you head to head vs all other FBS schools and La Tech only won 79.03% of them. So it's not like you are predicted to be some huge powerhouse of a team to start with.
The 12-0 prediction is probably more based on your schedule, which it ranks as the easiest of all 125 teams, dead last in SoS. A SoS score of 35.99, which means it's only about 36% as difficult as the toughest schedule which is Missouri.
Your biggest opponents are Tulsa, power rating of 65ish, and NCST with a power ranking of 51. The rest of the teams are horrible and almost all the FBS teams would be predicted to beat them. Your 3rd toughest opponent it sees as Rice, who has a power score of 37, meaning 63% of all football teams would be predicted to win that game.
Predictions aren't a matter of comparing power scores, it's more about matchups, but even if you guys lose 15 points in power, you'd still general be considered to go undefeated on this schedule. If all of college football ran on this schedule, probably 40 teams would be predicted to go undefeated.
So it's not really that crazy.
Of course, teams lose games all the time they shouldn't, and it's a preseason ranking so there are tons of things it doesn't know. I think it will be come clear in that first game vs NCST if it's legit or not, because that's your 2nd toughest team as far as preseason rankings go. They beat Florida St last year, so even though overall they don't have a great power score, they aren't going to be a cupcake for you guys either. How Florida St lost that game is a mystery to me, so that just goes to show that predictions mean nothing come game time.
Maybe you guys will suck, I dunno. It will adjust pretty quickly once the season starts, especially if you start out with a loss to NCST.
Supposed to be short for 4th down and 20, and was supposed to be a temporary name. But I never came up with anything better, so there it is.Thank you!
Where did your name 4down20 come from?
It's a really new website, just registered it last summer. I've been doing the rankings on my own PC for years, just started publishing them outside friends this year pretty much.
I like how you zing teams for playing FCS opponents, but consider cutting them some slack.
If an FCS team beats an FBS, then I'd submit to you that it should be treated as if it were FBS. This is really only useful if the FCS in question goes on to play a second FBS. But it happens sometimes. Maybe once or twice a year.
Just a suggestion.
Check out this guy's predictions for 2012 and 2011. If he continues his prediction streak we go 11-1!!!! http://www.4down20.com/teams/louisiana-tech/2012/
thanks for coming on to explain things. however...FSU goes 12-0. UF goes 11-1 with a loss to FSU...and UF is ranked higher?
huh?
Intrasting information. Thanks all
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