That's bad. Real bad. Sagarin just needs to get out of the business if that's the best he can do.Originally Posted by RougeDawg
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That's bad. Real bad. Sagarin just needs to get out of the business if that's the best he can do.
I don't track these things closely, but I can't recall a year in which Sagarin has been as far off on Tech games as he has been in the past two weeks. Of course, Vegas and many of us have been rather wrong, too!
Most of our fans were wrong too. Good to be this wrong.
Sagarin's blended rating is skewed because the no-score margin ELO Sagarin list has SMU at 128 and North Texas 153 of all 252 FBS/FCS teams. That's why the BC$ rule to not take score margins into account at all was crap.
SMU is 84 and North Texas is 86 in the Predictor, mainly because SMU started at 70 and North Texas started at 82.
That is why it should probably wait until the 4th week to start being published. He could call it something else before that.
Sagarin Predictor Ratings Week 4 recap and Week 5 projections
Week 4 Sagarin Predictor FBS straight-up record--47-10 (.825), 2013 Week 4--49-9 (.845)
FBS Season to date--230-43 (.842), 2013 after Week 4--222-46 (.828)
Homefield advantage is at 4.27 in the Week 5 Predictor ratings, down from 4.29 in Week 4.
75 teams are projected to be bowl-eligible at 6-6 or better (76 bowl bids to fill) going into Week 5, same as before Week 4.
AAC--6, ACC--11, Big 12--6, Big Ten--7, C-USA--7, Indy--3, MAC--7, MWC--6, Pac 12--8, $EC--11, SBC--3
5 teams are projected to finish undefeated before conference championship games going into Week 4--
Alabama, Florida State, Marshall, Oklahoma, Oregon.
Tech projected to finish 9-3, 8-0 C-USA West 1st place (down from 10-2, 8-0 C-USA West 1st place in Week 4 projection)
L 16-48 at Oklahoma (projected L by 36.34)
W 48-20 at ULL (projected L by 9.91)
W 42-21 at North Texas (projected L by 8.43)
L 27-30 vs NSU (projected W by 18.76)
------------------------------------------------------
L by 30.02 at Auburn (down from L by 28.05)
W by 12.58 vs UTEP (down from W by 13.47)
W by 4.33 vs UTSA (down from W by 5.42)
W by 5.92 at USM (down from W by 6.82)
W by 6.66 vs WKU (down from W by 7.36)
W by 3.10 at UAB (down from W by 3.87)
W by 2.51 at ODU (down from W by 4.96)
W by 5.06 vs Rice (up from W by 4.27)
Other Week 4 C-USA Projected/Actual Results
North Texas won 77-3 vs Nicholls (projected W by 26.77)
FAU lost 19-20 at Wyoming (projected L by 7.20)
USM won 21-20 vs Appalachian State 21-20 (projected W by 3.49)
Marshall won at Akron 48-17 (projected W by 0.71)
Middle Tennessee lost 17-36 at Memphis (projected L by 7.72)
FIU lost 3-34 vs Louisville (projected L by 23.92)
ODU won 45-42 at Rice (projected L by 13.56)
Other Week 5 C-USA Projected Results
OOC games
Western Kentucky projected L by 11.88 at Navy
UTEP projected L by 31.84 at Kansas State
C-USA games
Middle Tennessee projected W by 1.06 at ODU
FIU projected L by 10.32 at UAB
Rice projected W by 5.13 at USM
UTSA projected W by 0.37 at FAU
open dates
Marshall, North Texas
Sagarin Predictor Ratings Week 5 recap and Week 6 projections
Week 5 Sagarin Predictor FBS straight-up record--41-13 (.759), 2013 Week 5--34-14 (.708)
FBS Season to date--271-56 (.829), 2013 after Week 5--256-60 (.810)
Homefield advantage is at 3.54 in the Week 6 Predictor ratings, down from 4.27 in Week 5.
74 teams are projected to be bowl-eligible at 6-6 or better (76 bowl bids to fill) going into Week 5, down from 75 before Week 5.
AAC--6, ACC--9, Big 12--7, Big Ten--8, C-USA--6, Indy--3, MAC--7, MWC--6, Pac 12--7, $EC--11, SBC--4
6 teams are projected to finish undefeated before conference championship games going into Week 6--
Alabama, BYU (added since last week), Florida State, Marshall, Oklahoma, Oregon.
Louisiana Tech projected to finish 9-3, 8-0 C-USA West 1st place (same as in Week 5 projection)
L 16-48 at Oklahoma (projected L by 36.34)
W 48-20 at ULL (projected L by 9.91)
W 42-21 at North Texas (projected L by 8.43)
L 27-30 vs NSU (projected W by 18.76)
L 17-45 at Auburn (projected L by 30.02)
-----------------------------------------------------------
W by 11.48 vs UTEP (down from W by 12.58)
W by 4.34 vs UTSA (up from W by 4.33)
W by 7.97 at USM (up from W by 5.92)
W by 4.72 vs WKU (down from W by 6.66)
W by 5.32 at UAB (up from W by 3.10)
W by 4.16 at ODU (up from W by 2.51)
W by 4.78 vs Rice (down from W by 5.06)
Other Week 5 C-USA Actual/Projected Results
Middle Tennessee won at Old Dominion 41-28 (projected W by 1.06)
UTEP lost at Kansas State 28-58 (projected L by 31.84)
Western Kentucky won 36-27 at Navy (projected L by 11.88)
FIU won 34-20 at UAB (projected L by 10.32)
FAU won 41-37 vs UTSA (projected L by 0.37)
Rice won 41-23 at USM (projected W by 5.13)
Other Week 6 C-USA Projected Results
OOC games
UTSA projected W by 12.18 vs New Mexico
Rice projected W by 5.45 vs Hawai’i
North Texas projected L by 5.36 at Indiana
C-USA games
FAU projected W by 3.81 at FIU
Middle Tennessee projected W by 14.00 vs USM
Marshall projected W by 9.26 at ODU
WKU projected W by 11.22 vs UAB
Last edited by RealityCheck; 12-07-2014 at 11:25 AM.
Wow.
We just need to score 40 points every week and we should win. 😏
Can't wait to see projections
They even shocked me....I think the ratings are now connected because there is no other explanation for the changes. That would mean the starting rankings are no longer being factored in.
Sagarin Predictor Ratings Week 6 recap and Week 7 projections
Week 6 Sagarin Predictor FBS straight-up record--36-21 (.632), 2013 Week 6—42-13 (.764)
FBS Season to date--307-77 (.799), 2013 after Week 6--298-73 (.803)
Worst single full week (more than 20 games) for the Predictor since 2011.
Homefield advantage is at 3.57 in the Week 7 Predictor ratings, up from 3.54 in Week 6.
76 teams are projected to be bowl-eligible at 6-6 or better (76 bowl bids to fill) going into Week 7, up from 74 before Week 6.
AAC--6, ACC--10, Big 12--6, Big Ten--10, C-USA--6, Indy--3, MAC--6, MWC--7 Pac 12--8, $EC--10, SBC--4
4 of the 6 teams projected to be undefeated going into conference championship weekend lost--Alabama, BYU, Oklahoma, and Oregon.
Now just 2 teams are projected undefeated before conference championship games—Auburn and Marshall.
8 teams are projected to be 11-1 before championship weekend--Baylor, BYU, Florida State, Michigan State, Northern Illinois, Oklahoma, TCU, UCLA.
Louisiana Tech projected to finish 9-3, 8-0 C-USA West 1st place (same as in Week 6 projection)
L 16-48 at Oklahoma (projected L by 36.34)
W 48-20 at ULL (projected L by 9.91)
W 42-21 at North Texas (projected L by 8.43)
L 27-30 vs NSU (projected W by 18.76)
L 17-45 at Auburn (projected L by 30.02)
W 55-3 vs UTEP (projected W by 11.48)
-------------PROJECTIONS-------------------
W by 14.98 vs UTSA (up from W by 4.34)
W by 18.30 at USM (up from W by 7.97)
W by 12.59 vs WKU (up from W by 4.72)
W by 8.79 at UAB (up from W by 5.32)
W by 16.46 at ODU (up from W by 4.16)
W by 13.53 vs Rice (up from W by 4.78)
Other Week 6 C-USA Actual/Projected Results
FIU won at FAU 38-10 (FIU projected L by 3.81)
Middle Tennessee won vs USM 37-31 (MT projected W by 14.00)
Marshall won at ODU 56-14 (MU projected W by 9.26)
UAB won at Western Kentucky 42-39 (UAB projected L by 11.22)
UTSA lost vs New Mexico 9-21 (UTSA projected W by 12.18)
Rice won vs Hawai’i 28-14 (Rice projected W by 5.45)
North Texas lost 24-49 at Indiana (NT projected L by 5.36)
Other Week 7 C-USA Projected Results
North Texas projected W by 1.51 at UAB
UTSA projected W by 6.31 vs FIU
UTEP projected W by 5.15 vs ODU
Marshall projected W by 15.17 vs Middle Tennessee
Rice projected W by 3.79 at Army
Open dates—FAU, Louisiana Tech, USM, WKU
Last edited by RealityCheck; 12-07-2014 at 11:25 AM.
Just out of curiosity, if we were to win out what does it predict for a matchup with MTSU or Marshall in the championship game?
On a neutral field, Tech and Marshall essentially even …Marshall by less than half a point. Tech favored by 1 point against MTSU on neutral field.
But the championship game is not at a neutral site...
Using the Predictor ratings, Marshall would be favored by 3.95 in Huntington. Tech would be favored by 3.19 in Ruston.
Both teams are projected to finish 8-0 in their divisions, and Marshall projected unbeaten should be the higher ranked team in the playoff rankings to give it the homefield advantage.
Tech would be favored over Middle Tennessee regardless of game site...by 14.79 in Ruston and by 7.65 in Murfreesboro.
If Tech finishes conference play at 8-0, it would host a championship game if the East Division winner is not 8-0 in conference.
. Believe CUSA championship played in w va this year. That said--- 1 friggin game at a time-- yesterday was most losses of ranked teams in history according to espn ( not always reliable). Do like fact we have 2 bye weeks-- chance to heal wounds--
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